Tyeenews

Guide to Tyee Election Reporting

You gave. We reported. A round-up of our coverage so far.

By David Beers, 9 May 2009, TheTyee.ca

Funding Graph

Just over a month ago, we asked you to help fund the Tyee's election reporting. Your response was amazing, almost $25,000 in donations!

This article is meant to show you the results to date, providing a guide to our election reporting. Since early April, we have run 60 Tyee features and more than 200 items on our political news blog, The Hook -- all of it original reporting aimed to shed light, especially, on issues you told us mattered most to you.

Along the way our reporters have delivered major scoops. Examples:

Ballooning payments to privatizers: The BC Liberals bragged that privatizing health record keeping would save money, but Andrew MacLeod discovered government payments to contractor Maximus have ballooned over 50 per cent, and neither the company or the government will give the specifics why.

BC Rail trust fund hiding its losses: BC Liberals created a $185 million trust fund to help northern BC with some proceeds from the BC rail sale, but shifted the funds to riskier investments that likely lost $25 million and, as Will McMartin reported, trustees are breaking the law by not revealing that information before the election. A professor of business ethics agrees it looks bad and the results should be released immediately.

Massive C02 emitter no one else noticed: As the parties battled over climate change policy, Geoff Dembicki discovered a massive gas plant slated for BC's northeast had quietly changed its pledge to sequester its C02 emissions, and now planned to vent enough gas to raise the province's entire emissions by three per cent. The BC Liberals offered no comment.

BC Liberals welfare to jobs story a myth: Premier Campbell campaigned on the slogan that the best social program is a job, but Andrew MacLeod pried loose the government's own report showing the BC Liberals' revamped welfare-to-work program hasn't delivered.

How NDP got 'flaring' wrong: A central claim in the NDP's climate change platform was the pledge to eliminate flaring -- the burning off of carbon gasses during extraction and production -- which supposedly would cut of 13 per cent in emissions. Garrett Zehr got to the bottom of the issue, surfacing the report the NDP used, what they misread, and what the report author really said: Total burned off or leaked 'fugitive gasses' add up to 13 per cent, while flaring alone likely accounts for around three per cent. The NDP backpedalled and clarified its position accordingly. Glad to bring a bit of light to a burning question.

We invested much of your generous funding in explaining as well as investigating. This was an election certainly in need of very much explaining.

While the economy ranked high the general public's concerns in polls, our own readers placed the environment, privatization and poverty and homelessness far higher – an early indication of how the issues would really play out. In this campaign the environment, the economy, and who bears the burden of adapting to inevitable change were fused into a general thread of argument and anxiety throughout. That's the way it's likely to be in future elections not just in B.C. but nationally and globally, now that climate change has made it impossible to separate economy from ecology.

Colleen Kimmett flagged very early the resulting divisions in the environmental community with her story BC's Clashing Shades of Green. Her theme was more than borne out as B.C.'s enviro groups boldly entered the political fray, siding with one party or another. We pulled the curtain back to show that Suzuki Foundation's chairman is a proud Liberal and that when high profile activist Tzeporah Berman declared she was quitting the NDP she wasn't actually a member. As enviro groups continued to tear at each other, we invited UVic's Michael M'Gonigle, a founder of Greenpeace International, to put it all in perspective. His two essays on "powering down" instead of revving up river energy projects and looking "beyond the carbon tax" received huge traffic and viralled all over the province and beyond.

We sought innovative ways to put into perspective issues that might seem familiar, but are nevertheless critical. Take the debate over raising the minimum wage. Rob Annandale found another place it is raging -- Haiti. He reported from that island nation as well as B.C. on the issue of livable wages vs. threat of job losses. (And no, you didn't pay to send Rob to Haiti!)

At the outset of the campaign, we sought to lay out the electoral battleground and its key ridings. Monte Paulsen's three part series pointed to swing ridings in the suburbs where green-minded voters hold sway out of proportion to their numbers. And yesterday veteran political analyst Will McMartin zeroed in on the 14 ridings (all in B.C.'s North or North Fraser) that will decide the election.

With those road maps in hand, we've endeavoured to bring alive the issues you told us you care deeply about by putting reporters on the ground in ridings where they were ballot box issues. Our datelines have ranged from the Okanagan to Vancouver's West End and its suburbs, from wild East Kootenay to Tsawwassen, "the angriest riding in B.C."

The campaign has a few more days to run, and we're not done publishing our reporting yet. Below, however, please find a guide to the best of our election-related journalism, presented in the order of the funding amounts you provided. I hope you are pleased with what we have been able accomplish thanks to your support. Without it, we couldn't have done a fraction of this.

PRIVATIZATION

When Gov't Cut Red Tape, Life Got Sticky for Many (Reported Feature) Libs proud of loosened regs for private colleges, other industries. Costs too high, say critics. By Andrew MacLeod

The Big 'Railgate' Question Looming Still (Reported Feature) For a second election, we still don't know: Was BC Rail deal tainted by 'consolation prize' offer? By Bill Tieleman

Libs' River Power Push: Dangers, but Little Data (Reported Feature) Experts, local officials want brakes put on big Bute Inlet run of river project. By Colleen Kimmett

Gov't Payments to Maximus Balloon (Reported Feature) Up 60 per cent since province outsourced health records to contractor in 2004. By Andrew MacLeod

Liberals, Liquor and Who's Really Getting Soaked (Reported Feature) Well-connected private stores make big margins while rural agency stores lose money on every bottle. By Charles Campbell

Tapping Our Wild Rivers Can't Fix Climate Change. By Michael M'Gonigle

Germs Winning in BC's Hospitals (Reported Feature) Nasty infections are up steeply. Health workers, NDP blame Liberals. By Crawford Kilian

BC Ferries refused Tyee access to public records (on The Hook)

Secrecy on big gov't contracts breeds distrust: watchdog (on The Hook)

BC Libs zapped regs for private power, doc shows (on The Hook)

NDP promises to buy Vancouver Island land, return public control (on The Hook)

Plutonic Power CEO denies donating to Libs, then changes story (on The Hook)

NDP wants control of BC Ferries back, but not its debt (on The Hook)

ENVIRONMENT

Libs' River Power Push: Dangers, but Little Data (Reported Feature) Experts, local officials want brakes put on big Bute Inlet run of river project. By Colleen Kimmett

Hanging out with Greens in Suits (Reported Feature) Candidate Kettlewell's pitch to a rising class of young, urban, sustainability-techies. By Colleen Kimmett

Huge Fort Nelson Gas Plant Would Spike BC's Carbon Emissions (Reported Feature) As planned for 2011, EnCana project is 'irresponsible': Pembina. By Geoff Dembicki

The Health Hazard Report the Premier Never Read (Reported Feature) Oil and gas study urged safety actions 16 months ago -- a surprise to campaigning Campbell. By Greg Amos

Which Party Is More Green? Grades Aren't Posted (Reported Feature) Sierra Club, Suzuki, others haven't issued platform report cards, so we asked. By Colleen Kimmett

Tapping Our Wild Rivers Can't Fix Climate Change (Essay) Veteran enviro says no to Tzeporah Berman's 'PowerUp' logic. By Michael M'Gonigle

Greens' Sterk 'Quite Optimistic' The party's leader on her ideas, her chances, facing 'hostility' and more.

Beyond the Carbon Tax (Essay) Two enviros argue it's 'fluff' and 'blackmail' and no real fix for climate change. By Michael M’Gonigle and Blake Anderson

Global Warming Debate Lost in Carbon Tax Fog (Reported Feature) 'Partisan scrabbling' ruining chance to educate voters: VTACC's Washbrook. By Tom Barrett

Furious Rebuke to Suzuki, Berman (Essay) Salmon advocate Alexandra Morton enraged at support for BC Libs. By Bill Tieleman

BC's Clashing Shades of Green (Reported Feature) How 'run of river' and global warming are splitting enviros this election. By Colleen Kimmett

BC Libs zapped regs for private power, document shows (on The Hook)

Campbell 'treating us like criminals': Morton (on The Hook)

Two top ecologists to vote NDP (on The Hook)

Debate: Climate plans fuzzy around edges (on The Hook)

NDP promises to buy Vancouver Island land, return public control (on The Hook)

Wilderness Committee calls for Penner's resignation (on The Hook)

Premier has rosy view of BC's carbon targets, experts say (on The Hook)

Conservation voters endorse 'Anybody but Carole' (on The Hook)

BC Liberals planned 'frontal attack' to split green vote in 2007: Marining (on The Hook)

Greens would raise carbon tax (on The Hook)

Campbell to Metro mayors: Hands off the carbon tax (on The Hook)

Mayors seek carbon-tax revenue for public transit (on The Hook)

Steelworkers dump PowerUp: 'We're pulling our support' (on The Hook)

Suzuki attacks NDP plan to axe carbon tax: Globe (on The Hook)

BC's carbon tax kerfuffle goes global (on The Hook)

Activist who 'quit' NDP was no longer a member (on The Hook)

Activist Berman quits NDP over 'Axe the Tax' stance (on The Hook)

Campbell defends carbon tax in wake of national report (on The Hook)

BC Liberal climate plan falls short: Pembina, Suzuki (on The Hook)

'I'm a Liberal supporter': Suzuki Foundation chairman (on The Hook)

Job loss expected from NDP climate plan: study (on The Hook)

Green Party promises local renewable energy (on The Hook)

Plutonic Power CEO denies donating to Libs, then changes story (on The Hook)

Oil spills 'inevitable' if Gateway proceeds (on The Hook)

CLEAN GOVERNMENT

The Big 'Railgate' Question Looming Still (Reported Feature) For a second election, we still don't know: Was BC Rail deal tainted by 'consolation prize' offer? By Bill Tieleman

BC Gov't 'Spin Machine' Costs Us (Reported Feature) How much? Seven times the budget for filling FOIs. By Sean Holman

A New BC Rail Cover-Up? (Reported Feature) The Campbell government put money from its BC Rail sale into a trust, but a shift to riskier investing likely lost $25 million. We can't know for sure, because trust directors are breaking the law by not posting statements. By Will McMartin

BC Rail Trust Fund: Timing of Financial Blackout Questioned (Reported Feature) Libs look like they're hiding info until election ends: ethics expert. By Andrew MacLeod

Northern Development fund released report afternoon before election (on the Hook)

No Sleaze, Please (Essay) Campbell set the bar so low, no wonder his team stoops. By Rafe Mair

Liberals, Liquor and Who's Really Getting Soaked (Reported Feature) Well-connected private stores make big margins while rural agency stores lose money on every bottle. By Charles Campbell

Huge Pay Raises, the Silent Issue (Essay) Libs gave selves big pay hikes, zero to minimum wage earners. But NDP can't complain. By Will McMartin

Mair's View: Campbell's Hypocrisy Habit (Essay) Libs' top cop has license yanked, stays in race. Too typical. By Rafe Mair

'Ducking' BC Rail Questions Doesn't Fly with Experts (Reported Feature) No law keeps Campbell and Oppal from commenting: Addario, Gabelmann. By Geoff Dembicki

'Running Against the System' (Reported Feature) Some serious independent candidates explain why they've rejected BC's party politics. By Crawford Kilian

Pity the Naked Candidate (Reported Feature) If you want to run for office, get ready for heavy vetting. By Andrew MacLeod

Province withholds welfare statistics on election eve (on The Hook)

BC Ferries refused Tyee access to public records (on The Hook)

BC government FOI record should worry public: report (on The Hook)

Unions gave over $520,000 to NDP this year (on The Hook)

Charged drug company official recently worked for BC government (on The Hook)

Big Four pay big money to BC Liberals (on The Hook)

Province refused to release report on welfare leavers (on The Hook)

Plutonic Power CEO denies donating to Libs, then changes story (on The Hook)

VOTING REFORM

Striving to remain impartial and informative on the STV referendum, The Tyee arranged a five-round debate between the yes and no camps. Read it here. The last round runs Monday.

Will electoral reform survive if STV fails? (on the Hook)

STV quite popular outside of politics (on the Hook)

UVic's Pilon to NoSTV's Schreck: Stop misquoting me (on the Hook)

NDP candidates state personal support for STV (on the Hook)

STV seeks 'someone who can make me feel real' (on the Hook)

STV supporters testing messages in poll (on the Hook)

Clip and save: The STV voting system, explained (on the Hook)

HOMELESSNESS / POVERTY

In Haiti, like BC, Business Fights Rise in Minimum Wage (Reported Feature) In both places, a living wage vs. threats of job losses. By Rob Annandale

Campbell's Claim that Jobs Lifted Many out of Poverty Proves a Myth (Reported Feature) Delayed government report shows no real gains. By Andrew MacLeod

Candidate Fronted a Jobs Program Slammed by Auditors (Reported Feature) BC Libs' Robin Adair is running in Saanich South. By Andrew MacLeod

BC's Badly Broken Welfare System (Reported Feature) BC Libs created 'overly complex' maze that kept needy off rolls: ombudsman. By Andrew MacLeod

Province's New Counting Makes Homeless Disappear, Say Critics (Reported Feature) Numbers just for internal use says ministry. By Tom Sandborn

Province withholds welfare statistics on election eve (on The Hook)

Promised housing remains unfunded in Kelowna(on The Hook)

Province refused to release report on welfare leavers (on The Hook)

Jobless BC welfare recipents climb 42 percent in a year (on The Hook)

Coleman promises funding for homelessness prevention in Surrey (on The Hook)

Coleman promises funding for homelessness prevention in Surrey (on The Hook)

EDUCATION

Kids, the Issue that Never Played (Reported Feature) No party hurried to make a bold stand on childcare. But stakes are high. By Charles Campbell

BC's Education Budget Faces 'Structural Shortfall' (Reported Feature) School trustees, administrators sound alarms. By Crawford Kilian

When Gov't Cut Red Tape, Life Got Sticky for Many (Reported Feature) Libs proud of loosened regs for private colleges, other industries. Costs too high, say critics. By Andrew MacLeod

BC's new universities 'struggling': NDP candidate Clark (on The Hook)

NDP promises tuition reduction when economy recovers (on The Hook)

Students grade Liberals an F, NDP a C+ (on The Hook)

Mixed reaction for NDP post-secondary promises (on The Hook)

HEALTH CARE

How Many Seniors' Beds? Probing Parties' Conflicting Claims (Reported Feature) James accuses Libs of badly missing targets. True? By Garrett Zehr

Germs Winning in BC's Hospitals (Reported Feature) Nasty infections are up steeply. Health workers, NDP blame Liberals. By Crawford Kilian

In BC, Being a Nurse Can Be Hell (Reported Feature) Assaults, abuse blamed on workplace climate, cuts and staff shortages. By Andrew MacLeod

West End candidates square off over rental act, hospital (on The Hook)

Debate: Leaders agree! Health care to stay public (on The Hook)

RCMP block protesting paramedics from Campbell rally (on The Hook)

Doctors press province to reduce paperwork or pay for it (on The Hook)

James targets Campbell's 'broken promises' (on The Hook)

Promised seniors' beds not delivered: CCPA (on The Hook)

HOUSING

BC's Youngest MLA Goes for Two (Reported Feature) Spencer Herbert seeks re-election in a redrawn riding where 'renovictions' and gay rights are issues. By Garrett Zehr

Builders, real estate firms gave big to BC Liberals (on The Hook)

Promised housing remains unfunded in Kelowna (on The Hook)

West End candidates square off over rental act, hospital (on The Hook)

Premier's house 'sold' to protest Little Mountain development (on The Hook)

Market catches up to long-term tenants; rents to rise 38 percent (on The Hook)

'Renters need to wake up' says blogger fighting 'renovictions' (on The Hook)

Premier promises 1000 new rental units for BC seniors (on The Hook)

ECONOMY

How Campbell Tied His Own Hands as Economy Plummeted (Essay) Libs quietly cut programs, laws for protecting BC jobs. By Ellen Gould

Joining the Jobless in Mackenzie (Reported Feature) I chose not to work in the mills with my friends. I became a reporter. Now we're all in the same leaky boat. By Joe Fries

James, Campbell Make Their Pitches to Trade Union Members (Reported Feature) The leaders on public works, job safety, training, the minimum wage and more. By Tom Sandborn

Province's Economy Much Worse than We Were Told (Reported Feature) New StatsCan numbers likely mean bigger budget deficit or spending cuts: experts. By Andrew MacLeod

BC's Economy: Whose Was Best? (Essay) Socreds. NDP. Libs. Who oversaw the strongest economy? (Hint, not Gordon Campbell). By Will McMartin

BC Libs' Platform Bets on Economy (Reported Feature) 'Not a huge change in direction,' Campbell tells voters. By Geoff Dembicki

Campbell Era Economy Nothing to Brag About (Essay) NDP saw higher growth. Now BC jobs are crashing. By Bill Tieleman

NDP Would Add $3 Billion to BC Debt (Reported Feature) James proposes business tax cuts to stimulate economic recovery. By Andrew MacLeod

BC had large increase in EI recipients, number tripled in Williams Lake (on The Hook)

Jobless BC welfare recipients climb 42 percent in a year (on The Hook)

Bond rating agency cautious about BC budget, economy (on The Hook)

OLYMPICS

Pricey Olympics a Wedge Issue (Reported Feature) While Campbell touts spin-offs, timber towns feel deprived. By Geoff Dembicki

NDP slams Liberals over BC Place labour woes (on The Hook)

Over-budget convention centre an ‘economic powerhouse’: Premier (on The Hook)

2010 Games social promises ‘not measurable’: IOC official (on The Hook)

CRIME

Shootings Spook Voters (Reported Feature) How the parties are politicking on the issue of public safety. By Irwin Loy

Libs' Fibs on Crime Voting (Essay) Claims that New Dems opposed police spending are false. By Will McMartin

KEY RIDINGS AND THEIR ISSUES

Coming Monday: Campbell River, Edge of BC's Biggest Private Run-of-River Project (Reported Feature)

Where this Election Will Be Won (Essay). Fourteen ridings in BC's North and Fraser North will decide it. By Will McMartin

Hanging out with Greens in Suits (Reported Feature) Candidate Kettlewell's pitch to a rising class of young, urban, sustainability-techies. By Colleen Kimmett

Bill Bennett's Last Stand? (Reported Feature) As charges of dirty tricks and racism fly, East Kootenay is a wild one, and too close to call. By Christopher Pollon

The Angriest Riding in BC (Reported Feature & photo essay) In Tsawwassen, massive power lines have sparked voter rage. By Geoff Demibick. Photos by Christopher Grabowski

BC's Youngest MLA Goes for Two (Reported Feature) Spencer Herbert seeks re-election in a redrawn riding where 'renovictions' and gay rights are issues. By Garrett Zehr

BC's Battleground 'Burbs: Dispatches from the Trenches (Reported Feature) On the ground in suburban swing ridings that may decide the election. By Irwin Loy

Greens' Sterk 'Quite Optimistic' (Reported Feature) The party's leader on her ideas, her chances, facing 'hostility' and more.

The Revenge of Joe Cardoso (Reported Feature) Turfed BC Liberal running strong as a Conservative in the Okanagan. By Adrian Nieoczym

FREE SPEECH, MEDIA AND POLLING

Pollsters in High Stakes Race, Too (Reported Feature) The numbers are all over the place. Who will get to brag about being right? By Tom Barrett

Polling that Obsesses BC's Campaign Strategists (Reported Feature) Economy and crime seem to obliterate other issues for BC voters. It's not that simple. By Tom Barrett

Print a Leaflet, Go to Jail! (Essay) It could be you. BC's Election Act doesn't just throttle the big spenders. By Vincent Gogolek

Gag Law Gone, But No Spending Binge (Reported Feature) Bill 42 struck down too late to change most third parties' ad strategies. By Morgan Modjeski

GENDER AND POLITICS

Educating Gordon (Essay) Why a pat on the head can be worse than a pat on the bum. By Vanessa Richmond

BC's Surge of Female Candidates (Reported Feature) 'We're behind Iraq and Afghanistan in elected women': NDP's McNabb. By Colleen Kimmett

Why the NDP Has a Shot (Reported Feature) BC Liberals hold more safe seats, but 'green suburban swingers' could lift New Dems into power. By Monte Paulsen

...and the rest of Paulsen's 'Breaking down the BC Election' series

OTHER ARTICLES OF NOTE

Corky Evans Unplugged (Reported Feature) The retiring NDP maverick on the populist voter, Gordon Campbell, spitting out teeth and much, much more. By Charles Campbell

Greens' Sterk 'Quite Optimistic' (Reported Feature) The party's leader on her ideas, her chances, facing 'hostility' and more. By Andrew MacLeod

Who Is Gordon Campbell 3.0? (Reported Feature) Chatting with the polished puzzle who seeks a third term as BC's premier. By Monte Paulsen

NDP Has History on Its Side, But Not Smart Messaging (Essay) In BC races, diving economies usually turf governments. By Will McMartin

Campbell's Challenge from the Right: The BC Conservative Party (Reported Feature) Leader Wilf Hanni says he plans to run up to 30 candidates, and win races. By Bill Tieleman  [Tyee]

11  Comments:

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  • SharingIsGood

    3 years ago

    a side issue - for David

    Thanks for your wonderful election coverage, David. ( and, there's still time to include more info about who has decided to buy the crown corporations and services that Campbell has been selling off.

    Good news for David, maybe:
    The beginning of the End.
    Domino #1 Perhaps you will be able to go into hardcopies in Victoria, David. Bet you can pick up some CanWest reporters.

    http://www.vancouversun.com/News/Victoria+Times+Colonist+newspaper+will+cease+Monday+print+editions+from+June/1580420/story.html

  • southdeltawalker

    3 years ago

    Election outcome - THE TYEE WINS BIG TIME!

    Thanks so much to David and The Tyee crew for this coverage.

    The Tyee broke some major stories and provided the most comprehensive coverage of any news media on the issues especially the environment.

    Reading the Tyee every morn., noon and night was the highlight of this election for me.

    As someone who donated-I certainly got my monies worth and more.

    Looking foreward to further coverage on this election.

    Thanks again everyone for your hard work, skills and insight.

  • Wilfred Laurier

    3 years ago

    Journaism?

    "As someone who donated-I certainly got my monies worth and more."

    Is this journalism?

  • el

    3 years ago

    Help!

    You click to read a story and you can't get there from here.

    Did you mean to do that?

  • David Beers

    3 years ago

    Administrator

    RE el's cry for 'Help!'

    Yikes. You're right. Just tried three links and all are suddenly dead? Will fix it in the morning. Sorry everyone.

  • leftofcentre

    3 years ago

    The NDP Version of Canwest

    All this experiment has shown is that if you fund a "news" website, you get the bias you pay for. Throughout this election, the Tyee has provided nothing but coverage based on innuendo and few facts. They're no better than Canwest.

  • realisticman

    3 years ago

    Leftie Toronto View

    From The Toronto Star
    May 11, 2009
    editorial

    "Unexpectedly, though, the NDP has also decided not to make the economy its main issue. Apart from the usual bromides about skills training and job creation, the party has instead emphasized two issues it believes will win more votes: crime and taxes.

    NDP leaders don't usually pose as crime-busters and tax fighters. But James has turned party orthodoxy on its head – and turned heads among environmentalists – by leading a crusade against the visionary and pioneering carbon tax brought in last year by Campbell's Liberal government. The NDP's tiresome slogan – "axe the tax" – is a testament to putting political calculation ahead of the environment and has triggered fierce denunciations by the likes of David Suzuki. ..."

  • verso

    3 years ago

    Left of centre my a**

    "All this experiment has shown is that if you fund a "news" website, you get the bias you pay for. Throughout this election, the Tyee has provided nothing but coverage based on innuendo and few facts. They're no better than Canwest."

    And yet, you're still here, still reading, and still posting. I don't like Canwest so I mostly avoid reading it. Maybe you should do the same.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Y'know

    This kind of stuff about the guv'nor just isn't fair.

    I make my contribution, when I see fit. I suggest what issue I'm interested in - in this case government corruption - and that's the end of it.

    In fact, I probably have the thickest file of controversial correspondence with the moderators of anyone posting here...there is no way these people pander to anyone - let alone left wingers like me.

    I don't always like their actions and I disagree with Beers and Co when I see fit but any comparison between Tyee and CanWest can only redound in the Tyee's favour.

    Just keep it up!

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    News reports indicate huge

    News reports indicate huge early voter turnout--reflected well in New West and Burnaby--over 60% (Straight)---the former an NDP riding, with Burnaby close. In other words, the lower mainland which skews BC Liberal popularity because of Fraser Valley, Richmond, and the North Shore--is seeing a higher voter turnout where the BC New Democrats perform at 15 to 20 percent better than their lower mainland and bc totals relative to total vote--(unless voter turnout also increases at the same rate--which on balance is < doubtful).

    ROBBINS anecdotal interviews in areas where the BC NDP and BC Liberals are equal is 3-2 for New Democrats (earlier post/half won't say).

    Theory question (1): Does this 'early' and significant larger voter turnout in areas where the BC NDP is stronger on average than the BC Liberals are-- suggest an early and conspicuous advantage for BC NDP--? AND if this theory is true--doesn't this mean that the BC Liberals will require a much larger TOTAL voter turnout to attain percentages similar to 2005?

    Theory question (2) Given the current concentration and more conspicuous efforts of centre-right 'other votes' in the north and eastearn ridings--and the averages of the two main parties--BCL and BCNDP-----with the BCL averaging (48%), and BC NDP (40%) when the 'other' 2005 centre right vote was < (01%) in this same region, and BCL averages in East Kootenay, majority of Kamloops and large segments of Prince George--- were(45%)---less than the overall average of (48%)

    doesn't this suggest--in a first past the post-electoral system--- overall theory (3) THAT the BC NDP on balance of probability will do much better than the BC Liberals--relative to the 2005 provincial general election outcome?

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    Going through the Election

    Going through the Election project site-which currently predicts a 7 seat win for BC Liberals-half of what they won by in 2005. This would suggest that the project is leaning more toward ROBBINS Rodeo Round-up--followed by Angus Reid's recent #'s--then Ipsos---and other 'regular' polling firms.

    On 2005 seats (79) save for former Maple Ridge-Mission---gerry--of the eight seat swaps according to this site--5 to BC NDP and 3 go BC Liberal--further supporting the Round-up #'s. Moreover, 2 of the BC Liberal gains according to the site are taken in Vancouver Fairview and Vancouver False Creek---the two ridings the BC NDP won in the by-elections in 2008.

    If these two seats were removed from the analysis then BC NDP gain 5 and BC Liberals gain 1--again this would affirm ROBBINS Rodeo.

    If the by-elections hold-contrary to the site's prediction--BC NDP 38 seats, BC Liberals 40 seats. One of the seats transferred intra party is North Island--not a slam dunk--If this is wrong then 39-BCL- and 39 BCNDP. If Maple Ridge Mission 'gerried' goes BC NDP as predicted by many including the site then 39 BC Liberals and 40 BC NDP. The project provides Delta South and Walter Oppal to the BC Liberals---and not V Huntington (independent) as anticipated by some-many.

    New seats are generally split by the project.

    Accordingly, the project bases the BC Liberal lesser win' on two Vancouver ridings going back to BC Liberals--after very good evidence to the contrary from a by-election vote in late 2008, an 'adjustment which would take the 7 seat BCL bulge and reduce it to a 3 seat bulge---- a North Island SWITCH to BCL--and Wally Oppal holding Delta South.

    Based on these adjustments--my query would be--what polls did the Project most rely on: ROBBINS -Rodeo Round-up-(44 BCL-42 BCNDP) ROBBINS Final Answer (46 BCL 44 BCNDP) and Angus Reid (matching ROBBINS Rodeo 44 BCL and 42 BCNDP)---or Ipsos (8 point lead BCL) and Mustell (10 point lead BCL) whose numbers would suggest in my calculations a 10-15 seat win for BCL?

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