Political scientist Kennedy Stewart says the B.C. Liberals' recent rise in the polls isn't enough to ensure a fourth majority Liberal government. But if they rise a little more, the next Liberal leader is likely to call a snap election.

Writing on his blog on December 28, the Simon Fraser University professor wrote:

Despite Mustel Group polling showing support for the BC Liberals increasing from 32 per cent in May 2010 to 41 per cent in December 2010, this 9 percentage point increase still leaves the Liberals 2 percentage points short of the magic number of 43 percent.

...43 per cent support translates into 43 of 85 (51%) seats for the Liberals. Look for a new leader (likely Kevin Falcon) to call a snap election if the Liberals support hits or surpasses this magic number sometime after the February 26th Liberal leadership vote.

Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.