For the duration of the provincial election, Election Central will provide daily updates to an exclusive seat projection model designed to estimate how British Columbia voters on May 17 will allocate the province’s 79 legislative seats. (See Battleground Chart.)
We will utilize historic election results and selected demographics, as well as public opinion polls, regional sources and input from Election Central readers. This information will be viewed through a unique model that divides B.C. into 13 sub-regions, from which estimated seat totals for the province’s political parties will be derived. Those evolving seat totals will be updated daily, in the box featured at the top of this page.
You can catch up on all Battleground BC stories by clicking the links below.
Battleground BC Stories
Now is your chance to bet against McMartin and win a prize.
Langley, Penticton-Okanagan, and Vancouver-Point Grey upgraded from 'likely'.
Lots of parties running, but this election is a two-party tilt.
Will traditional NDP supporters who’ve abandoned the party return in 2005?
Columbia River-Revelstoke moves 'likely NDP' while East Kootenay is 'solid Liberal'.
Carr is making a spirited but likely doomed run for a first Green seat.
No longer ‘up for grabs’: Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Alberni-Qualicum, Comox Valley
Vancouver-Burrard now 'likely NDP', Vancouver-Fairview is 'likely Liberal.'
Krueger's seat downgraded to 'likely' while Richmond's solidifies.
Scant evidence to expect a breakthrough on May 17.
Unity Party not around to siphon off conservative voters this time.
NDP’s big byelection win probably won’t be repeated.
Skeena, Prince George North and Prince George-Omineca no longer 'up for grabs.'
Two seats move to 'Solid Liberal' and one to 'Solid NDP'.
The Greens and NDP got whipped in this region in 2001.
Kensington and Kingsway move over from 'Likely'.
Rising incomes push Frasier North ridings to the right: Port Moody-Westwood and Maple Ridge-Mission
Tax cuts, hospital closure help New Democrats
Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria Hillside firm up for the New Democrats.
Last election, Greens’ strongest showing was in this region.
Surrey-Newton is now ‘likely NDP,’ Delta North shifts to ‘likely Liberal’.
The Tyee is shifting Nanaimo into ‘solid NDP’ and Nanaimo-Parksville into ‘likely Liberal.’
Wealthier zones of this region go Liberal, poorer go NDP.
The Tyee is moving Surrey-Tynehead into the ‘solid Liberal’ column while Surrey-Green Timbers goes ‘solid NDP’.
In this region, like most others, average household incomes correlate strongly with vote-shares.
Two NDP strongholds firm up.
Don’t Expect Minor Parties to Elect an MLA
But Alberni-Qualicum, Comox Valley, Nanaimo-Parksville and Powell River-Sunshine Coast are up for grabs.
For the first time in decades, the NDP was shut out here in 2001.
But Mayencourt vs. Stevenson makes a close race in Vancouver’s West End.
New Dems likely to re-take New West and two more, Libs to get one, and six up for grabs.
Two seats nailed down for Libs, but watch Vancouver-Fairview.
Last time the NDP won anything here: 1972.
Looks like it, but North Vancouver-Lonsdale might be interesting.
North Coast homes are, on average, a half million dollars less than in Vancouver-Quilchena.
Voting patterns can be tied to whether citizens own or rent their abodes.
Traditionally left-leaning, swept by Libs in 2001, six ridings in serious play.
Social conservative Mary Polak should find a warm embrace this time in Langley.
Liberals swept all four seats in 2001. Not likely this election.
Voting patterns tend to reflect household income. It’s three times higher in some ridings than others.
Region anchored by Kelowna is fast growing and right-leaning.
You’ll find them in the sunny parts of the province.
Attempts to even out voter numbers haven’t succeeded.
Liberals likely to hold at least three, but NDP has prospered in the past.
Economy, BC Rail deal are big factors.
Election Central’s riding-by-riding predictions to be posted daily.
And that makes it hard for pollsters.