A day before British Columbians vote for a new provincial government, a new poll puts the NDP six points up on the governing Liberals among likely voters.
The poll, from EKOS, gives the New Democrats 40.5 per cent, the BC Liberals 34.5, B.C. Conservatives 9.3, Greens 13 and others 2.7 per cent.
The poll is based on interviews conducted Friday, May 10 to Sunday, May 12. It follows two polls Friday that suggested leads of nine and six points for the NDP.
The EKOS "likely voter" standings are based on a model that excludes respondents who did not vote in the 2009 provincial election or the 2011 federal election, or who could not say where their polling station is.
With turnout barely above 50 per cent of estimated eligible voters in the 2009 election, predicting who will vote is a key challenge for pollsters.
Among all respondents -- including those EKOS deemed unlikely to vote on Tuesday -- the NDP lead falls to 4.6 points. The results for all decided respondents were: NDP 38, Liberal 33.4, Conservative 10, Green 16.2 and others 2.3.
The poll was conducted among a sample of 861 adult British Columbians by interactive voice response, or "robocall" technology. It carries a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
| Company | Date | Lib | NDP | Cons | Green | Other | Method | Sample | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid | 17-18 Jan | 31 | 46 | 10 | 10 | 3 | Online | 802 | 3.5 |
| Mustel | 11-21 Jan | 33 | 43 | 11 | 11 | 2 | Phone | 509 | 4.3 |
| Justason | 25 Jan - 1 Feb | 26 | 48 | 12 | 11 | 3 | Phone-online | 600 | 4 |
| Ekos | 1-10 Feb | 27.4 | 39 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 5.5 | IVR* | 687 | 3.7 |
| Angus Reid | 22-21 Feb | 31 | 47 | 9 | 10 | 3 | Online | 803 | 3.5 |
| Ipsos | 8-12 Mar | 32 | 51 | 9 | 7 | 1 | Online | 1,000 | 3.1 |
| Angus Reid | 18-19 Mar | 28 | 48 | 11 | 11 | 2 | Online | 809 | 3.5 |
| Insights West | 26-31 Mar | 28 | 45 | 10 | 15 | 2 | Online | 855 | 3.4 |
| Ekos | 3-10 Apr | 27.3 | 39.3 | 13.4 | 16.2 | 3.8 | IVR* | 793 | 3.5 |
| Angus Reid | 12-13 Apr | 28 | 45 | 12 | 13 | 3 | Online | 804 | 3.5 |
| Ipsos | 11-14 Apr | 29 | 48 | 11 | 9 | 3 | Online | 800 | 3.5 |
| Angus Reid | 24-25 Apr | 31 | 45 | 11 | 10 | 3 | Online | 812 | 3.5 |
| Justason | 15-23 Apr | 27 | 49 | 12 | 11 | 1 | Phone-online | 600 | 4 |
| Abacus | 23-26 Apr | 33 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 3 | Online | 1,042 | 3.1 |
| Forum | 30 Apr | 35 | 39 | 9 | 12 | 3 | IVR* | 1,055 | 3 |
| Insights West | 29 Apr-2 May | 33 | 41 | 11 | 14 | 1 | Online | 855 | 3.4 |
| Angus Reid | 1-2 May | 34 | 41 | 10 | 12 | 3 | Online | 808 | 3.5 |
| Ipsos | 30 Apr-2 May | 35 | 45 | 7 | 10 | 3 | Online | 1,000 | 3.5 |
| Hill + Knowlton | 7-8 May | 34.6 | 41.1 | 7.5 | 13.6 | 3.3 | Online | 804 | ** |
| Ipsos | 8-9 May | 37 | 43 | 7 | 10 | 3 | Online | 800 | 4.0 |
| Angus Reid | 9-10 May | 36 | 45 | 6 | 9 | 4 | Online | 808 | 3.5 |
| Ekos | 10-12 May | 34.5 | 40.5 | 9.3 | 13 | 2.7 | IVR* | 861 | 3.3 |
** Not stated
Note: The margins of error given here are those provided by the pollster. In some cases, the sampling error stated may refer to the overall sample, including undecided respondents; the margin of error for decided or decided and leaning respondents will be larger in those cases. For details, click the links in the chart for the methodology of each poll.
For more about polling issues, see this story and this story.
Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.
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