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New wave of election polls expected today

A new set of polls is due to hit today, as the B.C. election campaign enters its final days.

B.C.'s two big political pollsters, Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid, are scheduled to release their latest numbers today. The results should give us a good idea of where the campaign stands, although election day, May 14, is still several days off -- and voters in other provinces have shown they can change their minds in large numbers at the last minute.

The new polls come on the heels of a Hill + Knowlton poll that suggests a seven-point lead for the New Democratic party over the BC Liberals.

The online poll gives the NDP 41.1 per cent, the Liberals 34.6, the BC Conservatives 7.5, Greens 13.6, and others 3.3.

The poll was conducted online among 804 adult British Columbians Tuesday, May 7 and Wednesday, May 8. It does not state a margin of error. A telephone poll of this sample size would carry a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. However, some experts argue that online polls should not cite a margin or error. For more on this issue, see this story.

Hill + Knowlton, a large central Canadian company, has released little if any political polling for B.C. in recent years, so it is difficult to put these numbers into context. But they do fit the overall picture of a tightening gap between the NDP and Liberals.

Meanwhile, a poll from Oraclepoll Research commissioned by the Victoria Times-Colonist puts the gap at four points, with the NDP at 41, Liberals 37, Conservatives 10 and Greens 12.

It's difficult to know what to make of this poll, however, as the company has not posted any data online. The last public B.C. political poll taken by Oraclepoll was in November 2011.

The Times-Colonist story states the poll was conducted by phone Sunday, May 5 to Tuesday, May 7 among 1,000 randomly selected B.C. adults. It states a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Polling for B.C. election 2013 as of May 10, 2013
Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan - 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 22-21 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 28 48 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5
Insights West 26-31 Mar 28 45 10 15 2 Online 855 3.4
Ekos 3-10 Apr 27.3 39.3 13.4 16.2 3.8 IVR* 793 3.5
Angus Reid 12-13 Apr 28 45 12 13 3 Online 804 3.5
Ipsos 11-14 Apr 29 48 11 9 3 Online 800 3.5
Angus Reid 24-25 Apr 31 45 11 10 3 Online 812 3.5
Justason 15-23 Apr 27 49 12 11 1 Phone-online 600 4
Abacus 23-26 Apr 33 43 9 12 3 Online 1,042 3.1
Forum 30 Apr 35 39 9 12 3 IVR* 1,055 3
Insights West 29 Apr-2 May 33 41 11 14 1 Online 855 3.4
Angus Reid 1-2 May 34 41 10 12 3 Online 808 3.5
Ipsos 30 Apr-2 May 35 45 7 10 3 Online 1,000 3.5
Hill + Knowlton 7-8 May 34.6 41.1 7.5 13.6 3.3 Online 804 **

* Interactive Voice Response

** Not stated

Note: The margins of error given here are those provided by the pollster. In some cases, the sampling error stated may refer to the overall sample, including undecided respondents; the margin of error for decided or decided and leaning respondents will be larger in those cases. For details, click the links in the chart for the methodology of each poll.

For more about polling issues, see this story and this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

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