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POLL: New polls suggest BC election is suddenly a lot tighter

Some new polls suggest the B.C. election has suddenly become a lot tighter.

At the beginning of the week, Justason Market Intelligence released a poll indicating a 22-point lead for the NDP. At around the same time, an Abacus poll indicated a 10-point NDP lead.

Then, on Thursday, a poll from Forum Research suggested the New Democrats' lead over the governing BC Liberals has fallen to four points.

Then a poll from Insights West suggested the NDP leads by eight points among decided voters.

A few hours later, an Angus Reid poll suggested a seven-point gap.

One more poll is expected from Ipsos this evening.

The Forum poll reports 39 per cent support for the NDP, 35 per cent for the Liberals, 12 per cent for the Green party, nine per cent for the BC Conservatives, and three per cent for others. (Those numbers don't add up to 100, presumably because of rounding.)

The poll was sponsored by the National Post and based on a sample of 1,055 adult British Columbians. It was taken Tuesday, April 30, the day after the leaders TV debate. It was conducted by Interactive Voice Response and states a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum was off the mark in the Quebec and Alberta provincial elections, but they weren't the only ones. During the 2011 Vancouver civic election, Forum released a much publicized poll that indicated Mayor Gregor Robertson held a six-point lead over NPA challenger Suzanne Anton. Robertson won by 13 points.

The Insights West poll gives the NDP 41 per cent among decided voters, the Liberals 33 per cent, the Green party 14 per cent and the Conservatives 11 per cent and others one per cent.

When the undecideds are included in the total, the Insights West numbers get much closer. The undecideds have dropped to 15 per cent from 20 per cent in the last Insights West poll, conducted in March. When the undecideds are factored in, the numbers become: NDP 33 per cent, Liberal 27 per cent, undecided 15 per cent, Greens 11 per cent, Conservative nine per cent and others one per cent. Five per cent said they will not vote.

The Insights West poll was conducted online from Monday, April 29 to Thursday, May 2 among 855 B.C. adults. The pollster states: "While statistical margins of error are arguably not applicable to online panels/online studies of this nature, we have assumed that the same margins of error apply as if it were a true unweighted random probability sample with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20." (See this story for more on this issue.)

The Angus Reid poll showed 41 per cent support for the NDP and 34 per cent for the Liberals. The Conservatives were at 10 per cent, the Greens at 12 per cent and others at three per cent.

The online poll, conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, was conducted Wednesday, May 1 and Thursday, May 2 among 808 B.C. adults. It claims a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Polling for B.C. election 2013 as of May 2, 2013
Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan - 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 22-21 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 28 48 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5
Insights West 26-31 Mar 28 45 10 15 2 Online 855 3.4
Ekos 3-10 Apr 27.3 39.3 13.4 16.2 3.8 IVR* 793 3.5
Angus Reid 12-13 Apr 28 45 12 13 3 Online 804 3.5
Ipsos 11-14 Apr 29 48 11 9 3 Online 800 3.5
Angus Reid 24-25 Apr 31 45 11 10 3 Online 812 3.5
Justason 15-23 Apr 27 49 12 11 1 Phone-online 600 4
Abacus 23-26 Apr 33 43 9 12 3 Online 1,042 3.1
Forum 30 Apr 35 39 9 12 3 IVR* 1,055 3
Insights West 29 Apr-2 May 33 41 11 14 1 Online 855 3.4
Angus Reid 1-2 May 34 41 10 12 3 Online 808 3.5

*Interactive Voice Response

Note: The margins of error given here are those provided by the pollster. In some cases, the sampling error stated may refer to the overall sample, including undecided respondents; the margin of error for decided or decided and leaning respondents will be larger in those cases. For details, click the links in the chart for the methodology of each poll. For more about polling issues, see this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

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