A new poll from Ipsos Reid puts the New Democratic Party's lead at six percentage points in the race to Tuesday's B.C. election.
The Ipsos online poll suggests the following standings: NDP 43 per cent, B.C. Liberal 37 per cent, B.C. Conservative seven per cent, Green party 10 per cent, others three per cent.
The poll may indicate a continued tightening in the election race. The last Ipsos poll, conducted April 30 to May 2, suggested a 10-point lead for the NDP. Today's poll, conducted Wednesday, May 8 and Thursday, May 9, found a two-point drop in support for the NDP and a two-point increase for the Liberals.
It must be noted, however, that both changes are within the poll's stated credibility interval of plus or minus 4.0 points. The standings for the B.C. Conservatives and Green party were unchanged since the last Ipsos poll.
Today's poll suggests things are firming up as election day approaches. Only 11 per cent of the poll's decided voters said there is a good chance they will switch their vote to another party. That's down four points from the last Ipsos poll.
The overall Ipsos sample included 10 per cent who said they were undecided or had no preference. That's down three points since the last Ipsos poll.
A new poll from B.C.'s other big political pollster, Angus Reid, is expected later today.
| Company | Date | Lib | NDP | Cons | Green | Other | Method | Sample | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angus Reid | 17-18 Jan | 31 | 46 | 10 | 10 | 3 | Online | 802 | 3.5 |
| Mustel | 11-21 Jan | 33 | 43 | 11 | 11 | 2 | Phone | 509 | 4.3 |
| Justason | 25 Jan - 1 Feb | 26 | 48 | 12 | 11 | 3 | Phone-online | 600 | 4 |
| Ekos | 1-10 Feb | 27.4 | 39 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 5.5 | IVR* | 687 | 3.7 |
| Angus Reid | 22-21 Feb | 31 | 47 | 9 | 10 | 3 | Online | 803 | 3.5 |
| Ipsos | 8-12 Mar | 32 | 51 | 9 | 7 | 1 | Online | 1,000 | 3.1 |
| Angus Reid | 18-19 Mar | 28 | 48 | 11 | 11 | 2 | Online | 809 | 3.5 |
| Insights West | 26-31 Mar | 28 | 45 | 10 | 15 | 2 | Online | 855 | 3.4 |
| Ekos | 3-10 Apr | 27.3 | 39.3 | 13.4 | 16.2 | 3.8 | IVR* | 793 | 3.5 |
| Angus Reid | 12-13 Apr | 28 | 45 | 12 | 13 | 3 | Online | 804 | 3.5 |
| Ipsos | 11-14 Apr | 29 | 48 | 11 | 9 | 3 | Online | 800 | 3.5 |
| Angus Reid | 24-25 Apr | 31 | 45 | 11 | 10 | 3 | Online | 812 | 3.5 |
| Justason | 15-23 Apr | 27 | 49 | 12 | 11 | 1 | Phone-online | 600 | 4 |
| Abacus | 23-26 Apr | 33 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 3 | Online | 1,042 | 3.1 |
| Forum | 30 Apr | 35 | 39 | 9 | 12 | 3 | IVR* | 1,055 | 3 |
| Insights West | 29 Apr-2 May | 33 | 41 | 11 | 14 | 1 | Online | 855 | 3.4 |
| Angus Reid | 1-2 May | 34 | 41 | 10 | 12 | 3 | Online | 808 | 3.5 |
| Ipsos | 30 Apr-2 May | 35 | 45 | 7 | 10 | 3 | Online | 1,000 | 3.5 |
| Hill + Knowlton | 7-8 May | 34.6 | 41.1 | 7.5 | 13.6 | 3.3 | Online | 804 | ** |
| Ipsos | 8-9 May | 37 | 43 | 7 | 10 | 3 | Online | 800 | 4.0 |
** Not stated
Note: The margins of error given here are those provided by the pollster. In some cases, the sampling error stated may refer to the overall sample, including undecided respondents; the margin of error for decided or decided and leaning respondents will be larger in those cases. For details, click the links in the chart for the methodology of each poll.
For more about polling issues, see this story and this story.
Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.
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