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POLL: Ipsos puts NDP lead at six points as election nears

A new poll from Ipsos Reid puts the New Democratic Party's lead at six percentage points in the race to Tuesday's B.C. election.

The Ipsos online poll suggests the following standings: NDP 43 per cent, B.C. Liberal 37 per cent, B.C. Conservative seven per cent, Green party 10 per cent, others three per cent.

The poll may indicate a continued tightening in the election race. The last Ipsos poll, conducted April 30 to May 2, suggested a 10-point lead for the NDP. Today's poll, conducted Wednesday, May 8 and Thursday, May 9, found a two-point drop in support for the NDP and a two-point increase for the Liberals.

It must be noted, however, that both changes are within the poll's stated credibility interval of plus or minus 4.0 points. The standings for the B.C. Conservatives and Green party were unchanged since the last Ipsos poll.

Today's poll suggests things are firming up as election day approaches. Only 11 per cent of the poll's decided voters said there is a good chance they will switch their vote to another party. That's down four points from the last Ipsos poll.

The overall Ipsos sample included 10 per cent who said they were undecided or had no preference. That's down three points since the last Ipsos poll.

A new poll from B.C.'s other big political pollster, Angus Reid, is expected later today.

Polling for B.C. election 2013 as of May 10, 2013
Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan - 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 22-21 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 28 48 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5
Insights West 26-31 Mar 28 45 10 15 2 Online 855 3.4
Ekos 3-10 Apr 27.3 39.3 13.4 16.2 3.8 IVR* 793 3.5
Angus Reid 12-13 Apr 28 45 12 13 3 Online 804 3.5
Ipsos 11-14 Apr 29 48 11 9 3 Online 800 3.5
Angus Reid 24-25 Apr 31 45 11 10 3 Online 812 3.5
Justason 15-23 Apr 27 49 12 11 1 Phone-online 600 4
Abacus 23-26 Apr 33 43 9 12 3 Online 1,042 3.1
Forum 30 Apr 35 39 9 12 3 IVR* 1,055 3
Insights West 29 Apr-2 May 33 41 11 14 1 Online 855 3.4
Angus Reid 1-2 May 34 41 10 12 3 Online 808 3.5
Ipsos 30 Apr-2 May 35 45 7 10 3 Online 1,000 3.5
Hill + Knowlton 7-8 May 34.6 41.1 7.5 13.6 3.3 Online 804 **
Ipsos 8-9 May 37 43 7 10 3 Online 800 4.0

* Interactive Voice Response

** Not stated

Note: The margins of error given here are those provided by the pollster. In some cases, the sampling error stated may refer to the overall sample, including undecided respondents; the margin of error for decided or decided and leaning respondents will be larger in those cases. For details, click the links in the chart for the methodology of each poll.

For more about polling issues, see this story and this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

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