Independent media needs you. Join the Tyee.

The Hook: Political news, freshly caught

Readers respond to Tyee's election forecasts, predicting winners riding-by-riding

This morning The Tyee's election reporting team announced predictions for which candidates will win which ridings on May 14, dividing them up into likely wins, definite wins, and ridings that are currently too close to call.

We put them all in a scannable list here. Or you can navigate through ridings visually on our election map here.

Already we've had a number of Tyee readers weigh in with their thoughts and corrections.

In the comment thread on the story explaining our predictions today, southdeltawalker had this to say about our call that Delta South will likely go to incumbent independent MLA Vicki Huntington:

"I wouldn't say Independent Huntington is a 'likely.' She won last time by about 30 votes -- many NDP voters switched to vote for her just to kick out high profile BC Lib candidate Wally Oppal. This time they won't be switching so maybe her votes to win will have to come from disenchanted BC Liberal voters? The Greens & the Conservatives are not running in this riding so it is a three party race. Huntington is hoping to pick up many of these votes as well. Who knows.. might be interesting election night?"

Commenter metacomet thinks we underestimated the B.C. Conservatives in our predictions:

"I still think the Conservatives are a sleeper party and, in addition to Green spoilage, keep many ridings too close to call. Van-Pt Grey, Parksville-Qualicum, Cariboo North and Peace River North I would put in this category. Heyman's got Van-Fairview if my informants are correct and I'd put Shuswap down as NDP now that Red Tory George Abbott has retired. Many are chattering about booting the two BC Liberals in the Kamloops ridings, I'm going NDP for both."

Commenter aranhil claims to have on-the-ground intelligence:

"Oak Bay-Gordon Head is a two-way race! I just went door-to-door canvassing for Andrew Weaver on Saturday, and according to the number of signs displayed in the riding, it's definitely between Andrew Weaver and Jessica Van der Veen (NDP). Ida Chong (BC Lib) is lagging by a long shot."

Ian King wrote in from the "slowly-thawing north" to quibble with our determination that Peace River North, is currently too close to call.

"I live in Fort St. John and travel across the region, and this is a two-way race between incumbent Liberal Pat Pimm and Independent Arthur Hadland," King wrote. "Hadland is better organized than in 2009; Pimm's been a weak MLA but has a strong campaign team. I've seen no evidence that the NDP is gaining strength here aside from a general provincewide trend, and the party's announcements so far offer little to the riding while expanding carbon tax on its largest industry. I would be surprised to see New Democrat Judy Fox-McGuire do much better than the teens. The BC Conservatives will not be running a candidate after losing a potential runner a week before the election -- see this article. How potential Conservative voters will act is no sure thing. Pimm advertises himself as a conservative voice in the Liberal government, while Hadland will appeal to those who want to punish the Liberals but won't vote NDP."

We'll take it all into account and update our predictions in a week or two's time.

And thanks, as always, for sending your corrections. For example, the kind reader who pointed out our typo that the NDP's Spencer Chandra Herbert is a "shoe-in" in Vancouver-West End.

"He's a snappy dresser but this has nothing to do with his shoes!"


Robyn Smith is The Tyee's election editor. She can be reached here.

Find more in:

What have we missed? What do you think? We want to know. Comment below. Keep in mind:


  • Verify facts, debunk rumours
  • Add context and background
  • Spot typos and logical fallacies
  • Highlight reporting blind spots
  • Ignore trolls
  • Treat all with respect and curiosity
  • Connect with each other

Do not:

  • Use sexist, classist, racist or homophobic language
  • Libel or defame
  • Bully or troll
  • Troll patrol. Instead, flag suspect activity.
comments powered by Disqus