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Pollsters all over map on election eve

On the last day of a dramatic election campaign, pollsters offered dramatically different previews of its outcome, with the New Democrats ending up with anywhere from 78 to 123 seats.

On, Eric Grenier predicted a Conservative minority of 143 seats (no change from the last Parliament), with the NDP up an "astounding" 19 seats to 78. He expected the Liberals to win 60 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois to hang on to 27 seats.

Nanos didn't offer a seat projection, but put the Conservatives at 37.1 percent, with the NDP at 31.6, the Liberals at 20.5, the Bloc at 5.7, and the Green Party at 3.8.

In an April 30 news release, Angus Reid found the Conservatives at 37 percent, the NDP at 33, and the Liberals at 19.

EKOS on May 1 predicted 34 percent for the CPC, 31.6 for the NDP, 20.8 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 5.9 for the Greens. It said the Conservatives would hold between 130 and 146 seats, with the NDP between 103 and 123 seats. The Liberals would hold 36 to 46 seats, the Bloc 10 to 20, and the Greens would win 1 seat.

The Canadian Press/Harris Decima poll put the CPC at 36 percent, ahead of the NDP by 6 points. The Liberals were at 19, with the BQ and Greens at 6 each.

The Laurier Institute's final seat projection gave the CPC 144 seats, the NDP 98, the Liberals 51, and the BQ 15.

On April 29, Ipsos gave the CPC 38 percent, the NDP 33, the Liberals 18, the Bloc 7, and the Greens 4 percent.

The actual outcome, whatever it may be, is likely to be even more dramatic.

Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.

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