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Strategic voting could determine winners in 7 BC ridings

With pollsters nationally predicting everything from a Conservative majority to a New Democrat majority, B.C. voters in most ridings can vote their consciences. But in seven ridings, strategic voting could deny the Conservatives some crucially needed seats.

According to the April 30 riding projections on the ThreeHundredEight website, these are:

Burnaby-Douglas: NDP is currently ahead at 38.7 percent. CPC is second at 34.7, with the Liberals trailing at 21.1. Liberals voting NDP could ensure that the Conservatives don't catch up.

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca: Conservatives are currently ahead with 32.1 percent. New Democrats at 29.9 and Liberals at 29.6 are effectively allowing the CPC to run up the middle. With the Liberals having little hope of forming even the Official Opposition, they could strengthen the anti-Harper forces by voting NDP.

North Vancouver: Incumbent Conservative Andrew Saxton is leading with 41.1 percent. Liberal Taleeb Noormohamed trails at 38.8. The NDP surge has raised Michael Charrois from 9 to 10.4, while another 9 percent will vote Green. New Democrats and Greens need to vote Liberal to take the riding out of the Conservatives' hands.

Saanich-Gulf Islands: The Conservatives hold the lead with 35.5 percent. Green Party leader Elizabeth May is in second place with 28.9, while the rest of the vote includes 20.8 for the NDP and 14.8 for the Liberals. New Democrats and Liberals could hand the riding to May and give all the other parties something to think about in the next Parliament.

Vancouver Island North: The NDP's Ronna-Rae Leonard is leading at 44.7, with Conservative MP John Duncan close on her heels at 43.5. Greens are at 6.6 and Liberals at 4.7. If they vote for their own candidates, Duncan could get out his vote, overtake the NDP, and hang on to the seat.

Vancouver South: Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh is comfortably ahead at 40.0, with Conservative Wai Young trailing at 35.6 after embarrassing revelations about her relationship with Ripudaman Singh Malik and her battles with her siblings. New Democrat Meena Wong is out of the race at 19.9. In case Dosanjh can't get out his vote, New Democrats should vote for him to ensure the Conservatives don't steal the seat.

Caveat elector: These projections are not ironclad, just the best The Tyee has been able to find. To get a sense of how far apart the pollsters are, visit these sites:


Nanos Research

Angus Reid


Harris Decima

Laurier Institute


Pundits' Guide

Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.

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