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Liberals slip to 51 seats in SFU prof's projection

The B.C. Liberal Party's lead continues to erode in the seat projection model prepared by SFU political scientist Kennedy Stewart.

Stewart's revised prediction now gives Gordon Campbell's Liberals 51 seats, and Carole James' New Democrats the remaining 34.

"Please bear in mind all included polls are still pre-debate so any post-debate bounce is not yet captured," Stewart told The Tyee. "I expect the next few polls to converge and give us a true reflection of what we can expect on election day."

The Simon Fraser University researcher’s model, which is based on an average of recent polls, predicted a 56-seat Liberal majority on April 24, and a 54-seat victory on April 28.

"My projections currently show a steady increase for the NDP," Stewart noted.

"Although the methodology is still new and based on averaging polls from different companies, the NDP seem to be moving from disaster to at least maintaining their legislative presence," he added.

"The next poll or two will tell us if they are a real threat to win the election."

Monte Paulsen reports for The Tyee.

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