Did David Eby Make a Big Mistake?

Early polling suggests Premier David Eby may have misjudged British Columbia voters’ appetite for a snap election and their support for his BC NDP.

“The reversal of fortune for the BC NDP has been swift,” says a report the Angus Reid Institute released Thursday. “As recently as 10 days ago, the governing party had a slim four-point advantage over the BC Conservatives.”

But following Eby’s election call and the rapid reassembly of the Conservative Party of BC under interim leader Lorne Doerkson, that advantage had flipped among decided and leaning voters.

The Angus Reid survey found 43 per cent would support the Conservatives and 35 per cent the NDP. Support for the BC Green Party was at 12 per cent and for other parties at 10 per cent.

The NDP government was two years into its four-year term when Eby asked Lt.-Gov. Wendy Cocchia Tuesday to dissolve the legislature and send the province to an Oct. 24 election.

The call came just two days after Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as leader of the Conservative Party of BC, her short tenure plagued with a series of scandals, criticisms of her staffing choices and the departure of many MLAs.

Eby said the election is needed because conditions had changed due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats.

The NDP needed a stronger mandate to protect and build the province, he said. “We have big decisions to make as a province and you, British Columbians, deserve a say in the direction that we choose.”

The Angus Reid survey found, however, that two-thirds of respondents thought it is too soon for an election. Even among people who voted NDP in 2024, half thought it is too soon.

A similar number said they believed Eby was putting his own interests ahead of those of the province.

And while 85 per cent of the people who voted Conservative in 2024 planned to vote for the party again, the comparable number for the NDP was 65 per cent.

There remains much room for the dynamic to change. The survey found that one out of five people hadn’t decided whom they would vote for and only 35 per cent described themselves as “very certain” about their choice.

The online survey of 801 B.C. adults, which with a randomized sampling method would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20, was conducted between Tuesday and Thursday.

Other interesting findings included that more than half of respondents said it is time for a change in government, while a similar number said they believed the Conservatives are unready to govern.

The survey found strength for the Conservatives in the Fraser Valley, Interior and Metro Vancouver, as well as among voters older than 54, a demographic that reliably turns out to vote.

Meanwhile the NDP led on Vancouver Island and among voters under the age of 35.

And while Eby has been clear that he wants the election to be about Trump and tariffs, other issues that are higher priorities for voters included the high cost of living, health care, the economy, housing affordability, street crime and the province’s ballooning deficit.

Among undecided voters, only 12 per cent picked relations with the United States as a top concern.

The survey also found low enthusiasm for either of the two main parties and the election itself. Nearly 40 per cent said they didn’t see a good option if they had to choose one of the main parties. Three out of five said they weren’t enthusiastic about voting in the election.

The poll follows one released Wednesday by Liaison Strategies that found the NDP at 41 per cent, the Conservatives at 36 per cent and the Greens at 12 per cent among decided and leaning voters. CentreBC and OneBC each had four per cent support.

Liaison found nearly a quarter of respondents hadn’t decided whom to vote for. Conducted Monday and Tuesday using interactive voice recording, the survey of 1,000 people in B.C. had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

With parties scrambling to appoint candidates, develop platforms and prepare for debates, there remains a long way to go until voting day.