Why America's Politics Seem out of Control

Mitt Romney's convincing victory in the Illinois primary almost guarantees his nomination -- for what it might be worth to him. He may still lose a few primaries, but the statistical probabilities for a Rick Santorum victory are now almost nil.

Never has a primary season been so downright weird. In addition to the plutocratic, almost entirely plastic candidate, one competitor is an out-and-out right-wing anarchist, another a careening crackpot, equally wild and vicious. And the fourth man is too Catholic for Catholics, hating contraception as well as abortion and rejecting the humanity of gays. There is a far right market for each of these paragons, but in Santorum's case, donning a hair shirt seems an unlikely way to collect a nomination, much less a national majority in November. Rick, old boy, most people like sex and think women and gays and non-Christians are members of our species.

How did this bizarre carnival come to pass at all? Structurally speaking, as we pointy-headed academics are prone to consider, it seems to me that most Canadians fail to realize how weak the American political parties really are. Given strangely constructed primaries in scattered states spread out over months and months, there is simply no apparatus to control the nomination process. In many states, particularly those with caucuses, a small number of voters can band together and come to the polls when so few less motivated voters even bother. In the Republican Party this activist minority, Tea Party and Christian Evangelical, are longing to vote for one of their own -- this year, by default, Rick Santorum -- because they are convinced his values and theirs are universal and true. For them, Mitt Romney is contaminated by his past record of moderation and his elite and well-educated standing. Why vote for more of the same, the second Harvard man in the race?

Indeed, I believe that if and when Romney loses to Barack Obama, these same people will come back with even more fire next time around, and possibly capture the 2016 nomination for a Pure and Holy Believer.

In the meantime, floods of money from the financial oligarchy saturate the airwaves with negative advertising against Romney's foes -- the nearest approach to some element of control from the top in this campaign. However this has worked only because the possible insurgent candidates are so weak and flakey.

But what will Mitt win? In an earlier piece I suggested that his trick would be to avoid moving so far to the right during the primaries that he would be unable to capture the indispensible moderate voters during the general election. Move to the right he has, and on one issue in particular, his brutal stance on restricting immigration, I believe he will lose Florida, Colorado and Arizona, states filled with Hispanic voters, and with these states, the election.

Recently his campaign manager suggested that Romney will etch a new sketch during the general campaign, dropping the right-wing rhetoric -- in which he is manifestly insincere -- and run as a capable manager.

This level of cynicism bothers some voters, especially the true believers. If they feel entirely betrayed by Romney once he wins the nomination, they might, even at this late date, sponsor an independent candidate, another Ross Perot. Or, more likely, significant numbers of them will stay at home. The deciding factor will be their level of antipathy for Obama and his reality-based presidency.

Mr. One Per cent

But what has been exposed even more than an ability to get down in the dirt with the extremists during these past months is Romney's sheer personal unattractiveness. No one enthuses about this hyper-rich, culturally insensitive, out of touch personality. Lots of traditional Republican voters will find it difficult to hold their noses and vote for him; not merely extremists will stay at home. In particular, given the Romney touch on women's issues, a significant slice of Republican as well as moderate women voters are likely to shift to Obama.

The primary season has served to narrow Romney's base and his potential with swing voters. So this is the most likely model for the general election campaign: Obama will run against the top one per cent and Romney personifies that one per cent. His tax platform, written by Paul Ryan, would make the tax system even more regressive, with loopholes big enough for Mrs. Romney to drive both her Caddies through, side by side. Americans may not believe in economic redistribution, but they do believe in fairness, and blatant economic self-interest won't work for Romney.

Obama, a cool and cerebral elitist, also will be able to position himself as the more populist candidate. He fills out his March Madness brackets while Mitt thinks that a jump shot is a move to buy up majority interest in a corporation he wants to raid. While the strictly Mormon Mitt drinks only tap water, Obama very publicly goes for a beer with the fellas, a subtle way to remind the voters that Mormons are outriders on the American scene. Subtle, but not nice. And so on and so forth.

Nothing's for sure

And yet of course before predicting the outcome of a Romney-Obama race, we must remember that we have over seven months to go -- the Americans stretch campaigns out like no one else. Anything can happen.

Just this month, Obama's popularity rating fell dramatically because gas prices went up. Of course no president can turn the oil companies around, but every time they fill their tanks, voters blame Obama, and Republicans lie their heads off to feed this anger. Obama has some moves to make -- for example approval for the Keystone pipeline and release of oil from the emergency reserves -- where do the green voters have to go after all? And by November, people are done with their vacations and gas prices fall naturally.

(One might consider that the oil companies favour the Republicans and might keep prices high as a joint political move. They do act in concert. I'll admit that sounds a tad conspiratorial.)

But my larger point is that there are always too many imponderables to confidently predict an election seven days before the event, not to mention seven months. Romney seems like a very vulnerable candidate, worse even than the odd John McCain, who at least had a personality and a few principles. Obama is a known factor and a brilliant campaigner, surrounded by clever advisors. And he can fund raise from a broad base, probably enough to match the very wealthy donors around Romney.

A brutal season

Usually I quite enjoy the blood sport quality of mass electoral politics. But what a depressing race to the bottom this round has proven to be -- so anti-intellectual, so hate-filled, seizing on such widespread anger and fear about the future of ordinary people in the United States. These primaries have reflected a desire to return to that entirely mythic land of the rifle bearing, self-sufficient Christian pioneer, free from the necessary contradictions, confusions and ambiguities of actual life in a complex nation.

Romney's nomination will put off the reckoning with the deepest undertows of this dark utopianism. Perhaps next time a far more attractive candidate than Rick Santorum will emerge to lead the troops of the far right to capture the Republican nomination. Or maybe this reactionary movement will whimper to an end, its denizens retreating once more to their home, home on the fringe.

[Tags: Politics.]