Rejigged Ridings Are Yet Another Twist in an Unprecedented Election

Notice more ridings? And new names and borders for old ridings?

Aside from the dramatic competition between the BC NDP and their new rival the BC Conservatives, there’s another twist to this provincial election. Voters will be going to polls with six new ridings and changed boundaries.

This happens every two provincial elections to adjust for population change. You can view all the adjustments on an interactive map on Elections BC’s website.

The 2024 election will feature 93 ridings, up from 87. Eighteen have had their names altered but no border changes. Another 24 have both new names and border changes.

It’s more substantial than the previous round of changes approved in time for the 2017 election. That election featured 87 ridings, up from 85.

Experts are cautious about whether this year’s riding redistribution will be a factor in the outcome.

“As much as the boundaries have changed, the political players themselves have changed, either literally or politically,” said Andy Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program. “There are certain things that the NDP are doing that are more right-of-centre than a traditional NDP.”

However, experts like Yan do note that the province’s process of drawing new electoral boundaries is nothing like incidents of “gerrymandering” in American voting districts, where some electoral boundaries are politically manipulated.

“The U.S. is by far more contentious,” Yan said, adding that we won’t see “gerrymandering” taking shape in B.C. “Elections BC cannot arbitrarily do this. It’s to their credit that they keep the process non-partisan.” A three-person, independent and non-partisan panel proposes electoral boundary changes.

There is the occasional controversy.

BC NDP provincial director Heather Stoutenburg noted a 2014 controversy in which a BC Liberal government told the independent commission that three rural areas containing 17 seats were not to be adjusted, which benefited them in the election. Of the most recent changes, she said that the additional ridings in growing areas “have helped ensure everyone's votes count equally.”

The BC Conservatives did not respond to The Tyee’s request for comment by deadline. However, the party’s executive director, Angelo Isidorou, had previously told the Canadian Press that some of the ridings this time around allow the party to “reach more voters in a direct and local way.” Though more ridings means the work of recruiting more candidates, he added.

The process to adjust ridings is kept at a distance from elected officials. When it’s time for a redistribution, the BC Electoral Boundaries Commission selects new members. For the latest redistribution, members began meeting in fall 2021 and made proposals that were ultimately approved without significant changes by the legislature in spring 2023.

A shifting landscape

The additional six ridings in this year’s provincial election are in areas that have experienced a spike in population: Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey, Langley, Langford and Kelowna.

“It’s significant,” said University of British Columbia lecturer and political scientist Stewart Prest. “If you create a new riding in Surrey, you have to redraw every other boundary in Surrey, and likewise for every other community where we see a new riding has been added. And so, apart from the additional representative, boundaries are shifting. Even if it shifts by a handful of blocks, that can make a real difference.”

To give an example of the changes, take Surrey, the second-largest municipality in the province. It is home to 10 ridings: two are new, seven have had their boundaries adjusted, and only one, Surrey-White Rock, was left untouched.

Prest and other political scientists have cautioned against the idea that the BC NDP will handily win those denser, newer ridings based on the belief that urban areas vote progressive.

“If we rewind the tape to the BC Liberals, for a number of elections they did very well in urban areas,” he said. “The right-of-centre party may find a way to break into urban ridings, with this sense of frustration with the incumbent party where younger voters do seem to be feeling like they’re left behind. It all just continues to add to that unpredictability.”

A shifting riding

In 2020, Sam Sullivan of the BC Liberals lost the race in Vancouver-False Creek. The former mayor turned MLA had won the seat twice before but lost during his third run by 4.6 per cent of the vote.

But according to an analysis in Business in Vancouver — and a look at the census and voting data by SFU’s Yan — Sullivan would have secured a five-point win if 2024’s riding boundaries applied to the 2020 election. Yan also examined the census and voter data and concluded that such a win would be “highly likely.”

Vancouver-False Creek covered half of the city’s downtown as well as communities on the south shore of False Creek. It has been reshaped for the 2024 election into the riding of Vancouver-Yaletown, which is now purely a downtown riding.

“I didn’t make it up!” said Sullivan, pointing to the analysis. “I would’ve gotten elected.”

It’s always “uncomfortable” for candidates when their ridings shift beneath their feet, he said. Still, he’s a supporter of B.C.’s redistribution process as it is.

“I think the system is good,” said the two-time MLA. “When you look at what goes on in the U.S. and gerrymandering, we don’t have anything like that. It’s very professionally done; I don’t have any complaints.”

He finds redistribution fascinating and has heard groups make different cases for the borders of his downtown riding over the years. Should Coal Harbour be included with Yaletown, considering they’re downtown neighbourhoods of the same vintage? Should the Downtown Eastside be included with Yaletown, or would that make for a more polarized riding?

These types of questions are explored in great detail in the BC Electoral Boundaries Commission’s report on riding changes. Public consultations helped inform commissioners on issues of riding identity and how boundaries might affect representation of particular geographic and demographic groups.

The commission aimed for an average population of 53,773 people per riding, give or take 25 per cent.

Redistribution has other variables too, says Sullivan. It changes who the major funders might be. It changes the landscape of door knocking; Yaletown’s condo towers have been especially difficult to canvass.

And of course, it changes what issues candidates will run on.

The two top candidates running against each other in Vancouver-Yaletown are campaigning on law and order. They also happen to have ties to the Non-Partisan Association, Vancouver’s pro-business, right-of-centre municipal party.

Melissa De Genova, running with the BC Conservatives to combat “chaos and disorder,” was an NPA councillor for many years and has publicly noted her marriage to a police officer. Terry Yung, running with the BC NDP to tackle “acute crime and social issues,” is a former police officer whose wife, Sarah Kirby-Yung, was also an NPA councillor.

He noted that some progressives were displeased with the selection of a former police officer for an NDP candidate.

“This must be an indication from the NDP that this is a riding that will be more sympathetic to the right,” said Sullivan.

A shifting electorate

With different parties duelling this election on a new landscape of ridings, we may also be seeing the emergence of a different electorate, said political scientist Prest.

“There’s no guarantee that previous outcomes are going to continue into the future,” said Prest. “There are some reasons to think that the electorate is changing in its outlook.”

An August Leger survey showed the BC Conservatives are attracting more young voters than the BC NDP. Another surprising survey from Leger this October showed that the BC Conservatives have a small lead when it comes to women.

“This is not just B.C. This is really across much of the democratic world at the moment, to look at right-of-centre parties in a way which we would’ve not expected in previous elections,” said Prest. “The past is always a good place to start for our expectations, but we can’t jump to conclusions either.”

Perhaps the only thing to expect is the unexpected, says Sullivan.

He was elected Vancouver mayor with the NPA, a party that has since collapsed. Some members formed a new one, ABC Vancouver. Sullivan was elected as an MLA with a provincial party that has also since collapsed, the BC United rebrand of the BC Liberals, with some members joining the BC Conservatives.

Of the party shifts and how they’ll play out on a higher-than-ever landscape of 93 ridings, “It’s fascinating,” Sullivan said.

“Life can only be lived forwards and only understood backwards. I don’t think I quite understand what’s happening, but I’m very intrigued that these boundaries, these demographic alliances are changing.”

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