How Four Independent Incumbents Could Determine BC’s Political Future

When BC United Leader Kevin Falcon dropped the bomb on Aug. 28 that he would suspend his party’s campaign and shift his support to the BC Conservatives, it left many of his candidates scrambling.

Among them were prominent MLAs who had won multiple elections and, in some cases, held cabinet positions under the previous BC Liberal government. While some BC United candidates, such as Peter Milobar in Kamloops Centre and Trevor Halford in Surrey-White Rock, were invited to run for the Conservatives, some high-profile BC United incumbents — many of them in rural ridings — found themselves politically orphaned.

Five have since thrown their hats into the race as Independents, marking an unprecedented run of previously successful, unattached candidates. Four are in rural and remote ridings. (The fifth, Karin Kirkpatrick in West Vancouver-Capilano, is the only former BC United candidate running independently in an urban riding.)

The Oct. 19 election promises to be a tight race between the NDP and the Conservatives. It also has an unprecedented 54 unattached candidates running.

A series of “long-shot hypotheticals” could result in a minority government and several rural MLAs holding the balance of power, said Hamish Telford, an associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley.

“A couple of them, at least, may have a good shot,” Telford said, noting that the northeast in particular, where the NDP has very little standing, would be a battle between the Conservative and Independent incumbent candidates.

From rare to more likely?

Over the last 75 years, the province has elected just one Independent candidate — twice. Vicki Huntington gained the Delta South seat in 2009 and again in 2013.

Also rare in B.C. are elections that result in minority governments. Since 1952, the province has elected only one minority government, in 2017. The BC Greens, who won three seats, supported the NDP to form government.

The Green Party, which is favoured to win at least one seat in the election, should not be ignored as a potential influence on the next government, Telford said.

In conversations with The Tyee, each of the four rural Independent candidates running for re-election described their decision to go it alone as “liberating.”

“I’m at peace with this,” Peace River South candidate Mike Bernier said. “I feel liberated because, one way or the other, I didn’t have to change my opinions, my morals, my values to put my name on the ballot.”

The candidates said there is a feeling among their constituents that the decision to fold the BC United campaign was a backroom deal that favoured provincial politics over regional interests.

They said their campaigns represent an opportunity to put their riding above party politics. In an election marked with mudslinging and policy pivots, they said they offer civility and solutions.

Each of the four candidates said the biggest issue in their ridings is access to health care. The province has seen an unprecedented number of rural emergency room closures in recent years.

They also named economic development and jobs in forestry, mining and oil and gas development as important to constituents.

Finally, they said social issues, such as homelessness, crime and mental health and addiction are high priorities.

Mike Bernier, Peace River South

Bernier said he never really expected to get “the call” to cross the floor to the Conservatives.

It wasn’t due to a lack of experience. The former mayor began his political career on Dawson Creek’s city council, in the province’s northeast, nearly 20 years ago. He was elected to the provincial legislature in 2013 and served as education minister under the BC Liberals.

In 2017, when the BC Liberals lost to the NDP, Bernier walked away with more than 75 per cent of the vote — the most of any Liberal candidate in B.C. history.

In 2013 and 2020, his portion of the vote sat closer to 50 per cent. Those were the years that the Conservatives ran a candidate in his riding. Despite the party having no significant presence at the time, Conservative candidates have consistently taken about 30 per cent of the vote in Peace River South.

As shadow minister for forests and water, land and resource stewardship, Bernier stood next to Falcon on Aug. 27 for a party announcement about forestry. He had no inkling about the news that would come a day later.

“Everything seemed normal,” he said. “In fact, Kevin was even telling me up to just a couple of hours before how crazy the BC Conservatives were, how extreme they were on their views.”

Bernier himself hasn’t held back on some of John Rustad’s more radical views. After news of BC United’s defection dropped, he called on the Conservative Party of BC leader to apologize for “very misleading, flat-out lies” made by some Conservative candidates about sexual orientation and gender identity materials in schools.

So he wasn’t surprised when an invitation to join the party never arrived. He did receive a text from a “senior person” within the BC NDP, he said. But in a region where the New Democrats haven’t surpassed 30 per cent of the vote in nearly 20 years, he didn’t consider the party an option.

As he began talking to constituents, he sensed the anger at what many perceived to be a top-down decree from Victoria on who they should vote for.

“It was very clear right from Day 1 that we’re not going anywhere,” he recently told The Tyee about his decision to run independently. “I got into politics, originally as a city councillor, just to fight for my community and to try to make things better.”

Bernier said he’ll work with whichever party forms government to “make good decisions and hold them accountable.” If he wins, along with former BC United incumbent Dan Davies, it could put a great deal of power in B.C.’s northeast.

“You could have two or three Independents, for the first time in history, really having a loud voice in Victoria,” Bernier said. That would leave the provincial capital having to “look to rural British Columbia for support and help, rather than the other way around,” he added.

Dan Davies, Peace River North

The way Davies saw it, he had three options.

One wasn’t on the table: that he not run in the election.

“I’ve committed to my constituents that I was running in this election,” he told The Tyee. “This was another deal made in Vancouver for the residents of Peace River North. I wasn’t going to have that.”

Then there was the possibility that he might run for the Conservatives. But the call never came.

So that left Davies with just one choice. A week after BC United folded, he announced he would run independently.

Peace River North is one of the biggest ridings in the province. Bordering Alberta and the Yukon, its largest centre is Fort St. John. Combined with Peace River South, the ridings cover 20 per cent of B.C.’s land base. The region is an economic driver, containing much of the province’s natural resource sector.

The riding also consistently leans right. When Davies first ran for the BC Liberals in 2017, he won his seat with 66 per cent of the vote. His nearest competitor, an Independent candidate, took less than 20 per cent.

Last election, Davies regained his seat with 55 per cent of the vote. That year, the Conservatives ran a candidate who garnered nearly 35 per cent.

Davies echoed Bernier’s comments about what a few Independent MLAs could mean for the region.

“It could really be an opportunity for each of us to bring some important issues that might not have ever made it to the floor of the legislature,” he said.

Tom Shypitka, Kootenay-Rockies

Tom Shypitka was “blindsided” by the news that his party would suspend its election run to support the Conservatives.

“You’re essentially a political orphan,” the Kootenay-Rockies MLA said about being “kicked to the curb” by his party. “You’re kind of all alone.”

But Shypitka soon realized he wasn’t alone. A wave of political support followed the news, as “probably 200 phone calls, emails and texts” arrived over the day that followed, he said.

This included a call from Rustad’s team with an offer to run for the Conservatives. Shypitka initially agreed, believing it would provide “clear direction” for his campaign and an opportunity to support the burgeoning party.

But the offer soon shifted. The riding already had a Conservative candidate, Pete Davis, who had announced his campaign in March. Though Davis actually lives in the Columbia River-Revelstoke riding, he wasn’t interested in moving his campaign.

Shypitka wasn’t interested in campaigning outside his home riding. The offer was withdrawn.

On Sept. 4, Shypitka announced that he would run as an Independent. Making the decision was “like somebody just removed a huge sliver from underneath my fingernail,” he said.

“I’m happy to be Independent. I don't have to toe a party line, I don't have to worry about a policy that I might not agree with, and I can do it just for the people of that riding,” he said.

Shypitka’s riding, in the province’s southeast corner, borders Alberta and Montana. It includes communities like Cranbrook, where Shypitka lives, Fernie and Sparwood. It had been a BC Liberal stronghold since 2001, with the NDP often trailing a distant second. Shypitka won the riding in 2017 and 2020 with about 57 per cent of the vote.

While running for the BC Conservatives would have been a “slam dunk,” running independently allows him to avoid “political barriers” that he said get in the way of “good common sense.”

“We are trying to eliminate that polarization you're seeing across the world right now,” he said of the Independent candidates.

He said having an Independent MLA representing the region would be “huge.”

“There would be a strong voice that actually is 100 per cent dedicated to the values of the Kootenay-Rockies,” he said. If Independents end up holding the balance of power, “that would be massive for our riding,” he added.

If elected, he said he would support any governing party willing to improve access to health care, implement wildlife habitat protection in balance with the local mining industry and move ahead with the long-awaited replacement of Mount Baker Secondary School in Cranbrook.

Coralee Oakes, Prince George-North Cariboo

Coralee Oakes, who didn’t receive an invitation to run for the Conservatives, was the last incumbent to decide to run as an Independent.

As she prepared to announce her retirement, she began cleaning up her constituent files. Some were so complex, even “life and death,” she knew she couldn’t resolve them before the election campaign. Without a clear transition plan for her office, her decision became obvious.

“It provided great clarity,” she said.

On Sept. 21, Oakes announced her plan to run independently.

In a recent interview with The Tyee, she said it allows her to be “clearly focused on the needs” of her constituents.

The Prince George-North Cariboo riding was created in 2021, mostly from the former Cariboo North riding. It extends between Prince George to Williams Lake, encompassing Quesnel in B.C.’s central Interior.

From its creation in 1991 to its dissolution in 2021, Cariboo North was a battleground between the NDP and the BC Liberals. In 2005 and 2009, NDP candidate Bob Simpson ran a tight race, winning the seat with a narrow margin over his BC Liberal competitor.

In 2010, Simpson was removed from the NDP caucus by then leader Carole James for criticizing the party’s lack of direction. He ran as an Independent in 2013, taking 37 per cent of the vote — and taking a back seat to Oakes, who won for the BC Liberals with 41 per cent of the vote.

In the two subsequent elections, Oakes finished with a solid lead over her NDP rival. The BC Conservatives have also had a presence in those elections, most recently taking 10 per cent of the vote in 2020.

Oakes, who held several cabinet positions under the BC Liberals, was appointed shadow minister for post-secondary education following the 2020 election and, more recently, shadow minister for emergency management and climate readiness.

She said she’s excited to set aside partisan politics in favour of bringing forward solutions.

Access to health care is the riding’s most pressing issue, she said. But she sees access to post-secondary education as “the hub of the wheel” that could offer solutions to everything from health care to jobs to mental health and addiction.

She said she’ll spend her campaign focusing on higher education and “the challenges that exist within the system, as well as the opportunities.” Opportunities exist to expand access to higher education in the region so residents will train there and stay to fill roles in areas such as health care, Oakes said. As for challenges, Oakes cited proposed changes to the number of spots offered to international students, saying these changes could negatively impact budgets at post-secondary institutions.

“If you look at the breadth of the five Independents and some of the shadow ministry portfolios that they've worked on and some of the work that they've had in the private sector, it provides a really unique addition to the parliament,” she said.

“You’ve got very experienced incumbents that are running as Independents that could potentially support the next parliament and hold the balance of power.”

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