Why BC’s Economy Is a Strong Card for Eby’s NDP

The first days of the B.C. election campaign were dominated by controversy over the timing of the vote, manoeuvrings on the political right and culture war skirmishes. Sooner or later, however, the focus will turn to voters’ pocketbooks.

The legendary James Carville served as Bill Clinton’s strategist in the 1992 U.S. presidential election. He famously coined a maxim that has guided campaigns ever since: “It’s the economy, stupid.” What would Carville say if he came to B.C. today?

Some business leaders bemoan the province’s performance, urging right-wing parties to unite to defeat the NDP and save the economy. But their judgment may reflect ideological predisposition more than empirical reality.

In fact, by most measures B.C. has enjoyed one of the most successful economies in Canada in recent years. Some of this success reflects provincial government policies; most reflects geography, resources, demographics and a dose of sheer luck.

Whatever its determinants, this record contradicts the portrayal of B.C. as an economic basket case. Here is a quick review of B.C.’s standing according to several dollars-and-cents indicators since 2017 — when John Horgan led the current NDP crew back to power.

Statistical note: All data is sourced from linked public sources. Most comparisons run from 2017 to 2025; a few end in 2024 (most recent data).

Growth: B.C.’s economy (measured by real GDP at basic prices) grew an average of 2.7 per cent per year from 2017 through 2025. That’s the second fastest of any province (behind P.E.I.). That growth comfortably outstripped provincial population growth. Real GDP per person grew 7.2 per cent in B.C. over that period — the most of any province.

Labour market: Employment in B.C. grew by 1.8 per cent per year from 2017 through 2025, a bit faster than the Canadian average (1.7 per cent). The provincial unemployment rate averaged 5.8 per cent over this time, tied for second lowest (next to Quebec).

Wages: By this measure, B.C. is undisputed national champion. Since 2017, B.C. has gone from having the fourth-highest average wage in Canada to top of the pack, passing Saskatchewan in 2019, Ontario in 2022 and Alberta in 2024. Adjusted for consumer prices, the average real wage in B.C. has been growing over 1.5 per cent per year since 2017, faster than any other province. Policies such as B.C.’s country-leading minimum wage helped.

After-tax income: Led by rising wages, after-tax income in B.C. has also been growing faster than the national average. Household income after direct taxes and government transfers reached $50,600 per resident in 2024, almost closing the gap with leader Alberta (where per capita GDP is 25 per cent higher but less trickles down into household incomes). Adjusted for inflation, real after-tax income per person grew 4.7 per cent since 2017, almost twice as much as the national average.

Inequality: On this score, B.C. leaves much to be desired, despite the supposedly egalitarian predilections of the NDP government. By standard measures of inequality (like the Gini coefficient or the ratio of top-to-bottom incomes), B.C. remains the second most unequal province in Canada (surpassed only by Ontario), and inequality got slightly worse since 2017. Perhaps this is context for the NDP’s proposed new tax rate for people making over $1 million in a year.

Investment: B.C.’s superior growth was led by a robust combination of private and public capital investment. Private sector non-residential capital spending grew (after inflation) at an average rate of 4.5 per cent per year from 2017 through 2024 (most recent data), fastest in the country. Business IP and technology investment grew 9.4 per cent per year, third fastest. Public investment (health care, education, transport and electricity projects) rose 7.1 per cent per year, also third fastest. Love them or hate them, recently announced resource and infrastructure projects in B.C. will certainly add to this momentum.

Taxes: Heated rhetoric over tax policies contrasts with a rather more placid empirical reality: there’s been little change in the provincial government’s overall tax take since the NDP came into office. Own-source revenues (excluding federal transfers) equalled 16.25 per cent of GDP in 2024-25, fourth lowest among the provinces. That’s up just over one percentage point since 2017, roughly matching the trend in other provinces (up 0.9 points), which also struggle to finance rising health-care and other expenses.

Deficit and debt: This is the biggest talking point for those convinced B.C. is heading over an economic cliff. The provincial deficit equalled $7.7 billion in 2025-26. That was 1.7 per cent of provincial GDP, second highest of any province (behind P.E.I.), and is forecast to grow significantly this year.

For interest costs and financial stability, the accumulated debt matters more than the annual deficit, and on this score B.C. is in better shape. Belying doomsday rhetoric, net provincial debt equalled 26 per cent of GDP as of March, third lowest among the provinces. Much of this debt reflects the strong pace of public investment, which in turn helps explain the strong growth results described above. However, the next government, whatever its stripe, will search for ways to slow the growth of that debt.

The purpose of this statistical review is neither to praise the current government nor to bury it. After all, provincial governments have surprisingly little impact on what happens in the broader economy. The point, rather, is to use James Carville’s lens to scan the political landscape for economic weather that might blow the whole campaign one way or the other.

From this perspective, B.C.’s economic forecast seems relatively clement. Indeed, most other provinces would gladly trade for B.C.’s position: the highest wages and fastest per capita growth in the country, household incomes that significantly outpaced most other provinces, and fiscal settings that are stronger than national averages despite recent challenges.