Charting the Vote for Grits in BC

[Editor's note: This is the latest of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]

It's been exactly 40 years since the Liberals finished atop the polls in British Columbia in a federal general election.

On June 25, 1968, Pierre Trudeau led the Grits to 41.8 per cent of the popular vote in B.C., good enough to win 16 of the province's then 23 House of Commons seats.

Over the past four decades, however, the Liberals have broken through the 30 per cent mark just once (in 1974), and done no better than finish second overall in any of the subsequent 11 federal contests. Consequently, their seat totals have been mired in single digits -- even though B.C.'s seat allocation has grown steadily to 36.

The Liberals' nadir, in terms of seats, was reached in 1980 when they failed to win a single electoral district. In each of the federal elections in 1979, 1984 and 1988, the party captured just a single B.C. riding. As for their share of the popular vote, the Grits touched bottom in 1984, at 16.4 per cent.

Interestingly, over the last five general elections, the Liberals' popular-vote share in B.C. has remained fairly constant -- 28.1 per cent, 28.8 per cent, 27.7 per cent, 28.6 per cent and 27.6 per cent -- which suggests they have reached a plateau of sorts.

During the same period, the party's seat total has remained in single-digit territory: in 1993, the party won six of 32 B.C. seats; in 1997 and 2000, six and five of 34 seats; and in 2004 and 2006, eight and nine of 36.

Given the Liberals' relative lack of success since 1968, the field in B.C. has opened up for other parties. In 1972, and again in 1988, the New Democrats garnered the largest share of the popular vote.

The Progressive Conservatives led the way in 1974, 1979, 1980 and 1984, and the upstart Reform party was dominant in 1993 and 1997. Reform's successor, the Canadian Alliance, took a stunning 48.4 per cent in B.C. in 2000.

The reconfigured Conservative party has topped the polls in B.C. in the last two federal general elections.

Public opinion polls published recently have found Liberal support considerably below the 28 per cent plateau the party has averaged in the last five general elections.

A series of Canadian Press Harris/Decima rolling polls released between Sept. 21 and 26 had the Liberals in the mid- to high teens in B.C., while Ipsos Reid on Sept. 27 put the Grits at a minuscule 13 per cent.