British Columbia will face a shrunken economy and lost jobs if incoming U.S. president Donald Trump follows through on his threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods on his first day in office, Premier David Eby warned today.
“We are less than a week away from the inauguration of president-elect Trump, who has made repeated declarations of economic war on Canada and British Columbia,” Eby told reporters during a press conference. “This is a challenging thing. It is a serious threat.”
Finance Minister Brenda Bailey showed modelling that warned that the punishing tariffs could lead to the loss of 124,000 jobs in B.C. by 2028 and a $69-billion drop in cumulative GDP if the United States imposes the tariffs and if they remain in place during Trump’s four years in office.
The unemployment rate, now six per cent, could increase to 6.7 per cent in 2025 and 7.1 per cent in 2026.
And provincial government revenues could drop by up to $2.5 billion.
With the federal government in turmoil after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he’d resign as leader of the Liberal party and an election expected this spring, it’s fallen to Canada’s premiers to lead the country’s efforts to try to avert a trade war with the United States, Eby said.
But the premiers have not been wholly united. After a meeting that included the 13 premiers and Trudeau on Wednesday, the leaders signed a joint statement that included the possibility of retaliation by imposing its own tariffs or even blocking Canada’s core export to the United States, oil and gas.
But Alberta Premier Danielle Smith did not sign the statement and has said she hopes to be able to negotiate a “carve-out” from possible tariffs for Alberta’s oil and gas exports. On Jan. 11, she met directly with Trump at his Florida home.
Eby did not answer directly when he was asked whether B.C. would consider retaliatory trade action on the softwood lumber sector.
But when it comes to B.C.’s electricity exports to the United States, he said he would support “discussions around how we distribute our electricity,” saying he hoped the American people will realize how much they rely on Canadian energy and put pressure on their government to back away from the tariff threat.
“We don’t have to sell electricity to the United States,” he said. “We can sell it to Alberta, we can use it for other purposes, domestically in British Columbia, we can intertie with the Yukon.”
When asked about Smith’s stance, Eby gave a diplomatic response, saying she needs to act in the best interests of Alberta. Eby also said B.C. is in talks with Alberta to open up more trade between the neighbouring provinces, talks that started with discussions about wine but have been ongoing and now include electricity.
“Danielle [Smith] is going to do what she needs to do, what she believes she needs to do to protect the people of Alberta… my hope is that as a Team Canada approach, we can recognize that we have differences and disagreements about which tactics we support and emphasize, but at the end of the day, we’re all working together to protect this country,” Eby said.
Riding high in the polls with a commanding lead over the faltering Liberals, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been harshly critical of Trudeau and the Liberal government’s policies, saying that Canada needs to be put on a stronger economic footing with more support for the country’s oil and gas sector to be able to counter threats from the United States.
“I think that the first thing President Trump should do when he gets into the Oval Office is to send a big bouquet of flowers to the Liberal government in Ottawa,” Poilievre said on Jan. 16.
“By blocking pipelines and LNG plants in Canada, the Liberals have forced Canadians to sell almost all of our energy to the United States, giving President Trump massive leverage.”
Poilievre also tied a promise to reverse a hike to the capital gains tax to putting Canada in stronger economic shape when it comes to going up against the U.S.
Poilievre has said he plans to announce his own strategy on the tariff threats soon, including possible retaliatory tariffs.
“It would be helpful to hear from [Poilievre] about his support for retaliatory tariffs, export taxes and export bans to respond to the United States,” Eby said.
“There are different positions between Ontario and Alberta and British Columbia about what’s best for us. It’s every measure, whatever it takes. Let’s do it. Let’s get the Americans attention. I stand with Doug Ford in saying that that is the best path forward, and I support the federal government in doing that. I hope that if [Poilievre] is elected into the role of prime minister, that he would support that too.”
Eby said the brewing situation with the United States is a key focus for the mandate letters sent to his cabinet ministers today, including starting a spending review to look to cut administrative spending from government departments.
During a hard-fought provincial election this fall, Eby’s BC NDP party promised rebates of $500 to $1,000 a year for British Columbians in an attempt to match promised tax cuts from the Conservatives.
When asked about whether the economic tensions and possible threat to government revenues could lead to the rebate being scrapped, Eby was noncommittal.
“Everything is being looked at,” he said.
Read more: Politics, BC Politics
Tyee Commenting Guidelines
Comments that violate guidelines risk being deleted, and violations may result in a temporary or permanent user ban. Maintain the spirit of good conversation to stay in the discussion and be patient with moderators. Comments are reviewed regularly but not in real time.
Do:
Do not: