At first it was dismissed as Donald Trump just being Donald Trump, making a “joke” that Canada will become a 51st state and the prime minister will be known as the “governor.”
But as the incoming president has repeated his assertion that Canada will become part of the United States again and again, experts say Canadian politicians need to frequently and firmly say the country’s sovereignty is not up for grabs.
Along with threatening Canada’s sovereignty through “economic force,” Trump has not ruled out potential military action to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal. He will officially take office on Jan. 20.
Stewart Prest, a lecturer in political science at the University of British Columbia, emphasized that it’s not normal for the incoming leader of another country to threaten Canada’s sovereignty, or make comments like calling former finance minister Chrystia Freeland “toxic.”
“I think making clear that all of that is unwelcome and will be resisted is important, but beyond that, making it clear that any kind of action will meet a response,” Prest said. “So it's not that we're going to impose a tariff, but if a tariff is imposed on Canada, Canada will very clearly respond in kind to ensure that the pain is felt on both sides of the border.”
Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa, said Trump’s unpredictability and open use of “schoolyard bully” tactics make it challenging for Canadian leaders.
“You have to be firm. But at the same time, you don't want to get into a shouting match, or in this case a tweeting match, and trading insults and escalating the situation,” he said. “Basically you lay out your position and then you shut up.”
Let’s take a closer look at the dispute and how Canadian leaders have reacted to the threat.
Blame Canada?
Trump’s ire with Canada is nothing new. His threats to take over the country are rooted in his dissatisfaction with a trade imbalance between the two countries. Canada exports more goods to the United States than it imports from our southern neighbour.
In Trump’s first term, the United States renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico. As Trump prepares to take office this time around, he’s threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian exports the day he takes office — a move that would be crippling to the Canadian economy.
Trump has also said that Canada doesn’t spend enough on defence, relying on the United States for protection. Since at least 2016, Trump has frequently criticized other members of NATO, including Canada, for not spending enough on defence.
Hampson said it’s difficult to break down how much each country spends to defend North America because of the reliance on U.S. nuclear weapons as a deterrent. But he pointed out that “in absolute terms, we’re the sixth- or seventh-biggest military in NATO, and that's not trivial.”
Prest said Trump has continually painted Canada and Mexico as responsible for problems like border security, when it is clearly the responsibility of the United States to secure its own border, and “an admission of weakness” to blame neighbouring countries.
How have Canadian leaders responded?
Prest and Hampson gave poor marks to outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s initial handling of the situation. In the waning days of Trudeau’s time in office, the embattled prime minister travelled to Trump’s Florida home, Mar-a-Lago, in late November, where he was photographed having dinner with Trump.
The attempt was likely built on the Trudeau administration’s previous dealings with Trump, Prest said, but “it was misreading the situation, that this was just talk and that a quick conversation would be enough to right the ship and resume business as normal.”
After facing months of upheaval in Parliament and within his own party, Trudeau finally announced he would resign as leader on Jan. 6.
The party will now have to scramble to find a new leader in a contest scheduled to end March 9. Parliament is set to resume March 24, and the Liberals could lose a non-confidence vote and be forced into an election.
This all creates an unfortunate power vacuum as the country faces a rocky relationship with the superpower next door. Current polls show that after 10 years in power, the Liberals are likely headed for a resounding defeat at the hands of the Conservatives.
In a video interview with right-wing commentator Jordan Peterson, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre described Trump as “a former businessman who can spot weakness a mile away” and promised to “put Canada first” just as Trump “has always put America first.”
Poilievre promised to put Canada in a stronger position economically by adding more refinery capacity for oil and gas and selling more electricity to the United States, but he also criticized Trudeau as “a weak leader.”
In a press conference Thursday, Poilievre said that as prime minister he would talk to union and business leaders in the United States who are Canada’s economic allies and ask them some hard questions. “How many jobs are you prepared to lose by hitting Canadian energy with tariffs, energy that we sell to America at discounts that create six-figure jobs for American workers?”
Poilievre said he had not yet started those discussions because he is not prime minister.
Prest said he’d like to see more details about Poilievre’s plan to push back against Trump’s threats. And he noted that Poilievre showed a lot of deference to Trump in his comments to Peterson, describing him as a strong leader and a “highly successful businessman.”
Prest and Hampson gave higher marks to Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who initially threatened to cut off energy exports from Ontario to the United States, then pivoted to suggest an energy alliance between the two countries.
In a Jan. 7 appearance on Fox News, which is closely watched by Trump, Ford stood firm on Canada’s sovereignty during a humiliating segment with host Jesse Watters, who told Ford he was personally offended that Canada was spurning America’s advances.
Prest said another challenge for Canada is the country’s current political polarization, which mirrors the political landscape in the United States. Conservative politicians like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith are often playing to an alternative right-wing media sphere that overlaps with Trump supporters in the U.S.
While Smith initially said Trump made some good points on complaints about border security, she’s also given interviews where she emphasizes the importance of Canada to the U.S. economy, and has said it’s important for Canadian leaders to stand firm in the face of Trump’s “trolling.” This weekend Smith travelled to Mar-a-Lago and appeared in photographs with Kevin O’Leary, a Canadian businessman and media personality who has been calling for Canada to join the United States.
Optimistic or pessimistic?
Prest and Hampson have different levels of optimism when it comes to how a trade dispute that comes with a side of American imperialism will play out.
Hampson pointed out that Trump is making his blustering comments before taking office, and once he is president, he’ll face “institutional guardrails” that will limit his power.
“Americans as a people have warm feelings about Canada.... They see us as having a special relationship,” Hampson said. “There are members of Congress who come from states that do an awful lot of business with Canada.”
But Prest takes a darker view. Trump is now in a stronger position than he was during his first term, with a much more sympathetic and compliant Supreme Court. The Republicans also hold majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in Congress.
“We're seeing this gradual erosion of those who would be in a position and have a moral compass to stop these kinds of actions from happening,” Prest warned. “It’s incumbent on others to play that opposing role.”
Hampson said this is a good time to point out, again, that Canada should work on diversifying economic trade so we’re not so reliant on the United States. And while we sometimes struggle to define what it means to be Canadian, Hampson said Trump’s rhetoric has had the effect of “rekindling a keen sense of Canadian nationalism.”
According to a Dec. 10 Leger poll, 87 per cent of survey respondents said Canada should not join the United States. The idea of becoming the 51st state was least popular among women (seven per cent) and NDP supporters (six per cent). The idea was most popular among men (19 per cent) and supporters of the Conservatives (21 per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (25 per cent).
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