Coming Extreme ‘Cold Wave’ Potentially Deadly for Vulnerable

A meteorologist is warning local governments to prepare for an extended and potentially deadly “cold wave” that is expected to hit southern British Columbia just before Christmas.

Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at the Weather Network who specializes in the Pacific Northwest, says models show that temperatures in Metro Vancouver could drop to -10 to -12 C starting around Thursday. In the southern Interior, temperatures could drop to -30 or lower.

Hamilton is warning the weather event could be deadly because it’s not just going to be a brief cold snap: the cold temperatures are forecast to remain for up to one or two weeks.

“These cold events have become much more sporadic with the changing climate, but they can still happen on occasion,” Hamilton said.

“These next couple of weeks will be quite an outlier in terms of the intensity of the cold and also the duration of the cold. It’s not a one- or two-day cold snap, it’s potentially two weeks. That, to me, is a red flag.”

A map that Hamilton posted to Twitter shows how much temperatures could dip below seasonal averages.

We have the confidence to highlight the threat of a potentially deadly coldwave into Xmas, spilling into next week. Emergency management officials: there's ample time to prepare shelters, warming centres with temps >10°C below average at the coast and >20°C below inland. #BCcold pic.twitter.com/xQIzmI9Wp4

— Tyler Hamilton (@50ShadesofVan) December 19, 2021

The provincial government also issued a warning today urging people to prepare for “a series of strong storms” between now and New Year’s Day. “Periods of heavy and blowing snow, freezing rain and very cold weather are likely in many parts of B.C.,” the statement warned.

The warning comes at the end of a year of extreme temperatures and weather events that have been especially hard on people living in poverty: at the end of June, a week-long heat wave killed 526 people in British Columbia, many of whom were elderly, isolated or disabled and living in poor housing.

During the heat dome in June, the city opened cooling centres in libraries and community centres but did not keep those facilities open past normal opening hours. The city did change its approach during a second heat wave in August, keeping some cooling centres open overnight.

In mid-November, an atmospheric river that brought heavy rain to British Columbia caused the death of four people, the loss of thousands of farm animals and devastating mudslides and floods.

During the atmospheric river, homeless shelters in Vancouver struggled to house people who were looking for a respite from the torrential rain. Nicole Mucci, a communications staffer at Union Gospel Mission, said it had to turn away 100 people during November. In many cases, outreach workers were not able to find spaces at other shelters.

The City of Vancouver activated 57 emergency shelter spots on Nov. 15, the day after the heavy rain brought by the atmospheric river started falling.

The situation has improved in December, Mucci said, but Union Gospel Mission still had to tell 35 people this month that there was no space for them. Starting on Dec. 18, the City of Vancouver opened extra shelter spaces and overnight spots at several community centres, drop-in spaces and churches across the city.

Because of COVID-19 restrictions, many shelter operators had to reduce the number of beds available. In the winter of 2020, there were just 1,110 shelter beds available, compared to 1,489 in 2019.

List of @BC_Housing shelters: https://t.co/yt9QauPgFD
Follow @DriveBC for current road conditions: https://t.co/qCfkNy1IgR
Follow @ECCCweatherBC for weather alerts: https://t.co/qmII1ONzSd
Follow @PreparedBC for emergency preparedness info & tips: https://t.co/Sm7oBh7dOv#BCstorm https://t.co/yKFQkKxS5v

— Emergency Info BC (@EmergencyInfoBC) December 21, 2021

Shelter providers are continuing to operate under COVID-19 guidelines.

In the case of UGM’s shelter, Mucci said the organization has had few cases lately and has been able to avoid an outbreak. But in British Columbia and across the country, the highly transmissible Omicron variant has again led to a spike in cases, restrictions on gatherings and increasing concern about hospitals being overwhelmed.

This year, Vancouver city staff say a total of 1,758 spaces have opened this winter, including 1,350 permanent shelter spots and 44 temporary winter shelter beds.

The remaining spaces are extreme weather shelter spots that open when the temperature drops to 0 C, and warming centre mats that are available when temperatures are or feel like -5 C or lower.

Communications staff with the city said staff are aware of the forecast cold temperatures and will be monitoring the situation.

Fiona York, who supports a tent city at Crab Park, says many people still prefer to live in their own tent rather than in a shelter. Around 35 Crab Park residents are still living in the park, even though park rangers have been attempting to enforce an order that has prohibited any structures in the park since Sept. 9.

“I know that some people have gone to shelters and a few people have got housing,” York said. “And there are some who go back and forth, like they might have a shelter spot for a couple of days, but it’s not always available.”

Since the terrible loss of life during the heat dome in June, Mucci said she’s been doing a lot of research on how extreme weather events and climate change affect people living in poverty.

When it comes to the cold temperatures that are forecast for later this week, Mucci said the risk is high for people who are unhoused.

“It’s dangerous in a variety of ways: maybe people don’t feel safe in a shelter or they’re not able to get a space, and they’re trying to keep themselves warm, and a tent could go up in flames,” she said.

Hypothermia is also a very real risk, as is getting sick from illnesses like pneumonia, Mucci said. She emphasized that shelters are supposed to be a temporary stop-gap measure, and there needs to continue to be a focus on opening more permanent housing for people experiencing homelessness.

While events like the heat dome and the atmospheric river can be directly linked to climate change, Hamilton said the connection between the “cold wave” and the changing climate is less clear. But what they do have in common is an outsized impact on vulnerable people.

“When you look at some of these temperatures forecast for this upcoming weekend, for those vulnerable populations, it’s a proactive approach to begin to initiate those emergency operations,” he said.