Charting the Votes for a Rural Showdown

[Editor's note: This is the latest of a new feature on The Tyee through election day: Charting the Votes. In charts and prose, veteran political analyst Will McMartin breaks down the important factors in key B.C. races.]

The best predictor of future elections, it's been said, are past elections. It's true, usually. Indeed, in the federal general election now underway, recent election results (along with demographics and public opinion polls) make it fairly easy to forecast the outcomes in a large majority of B.C.'s 36 ridings.

A notable exception is the sprawling electoral district of British Columbia Southern Interior.

In part this is due to frequent boundary changes and the region's historical topsy-turvy electoral results, with further complications caused by controversy surrounding the Conservative candidate in 2006.

The easiest way to appreciate the riding's geographical and electoral history is to think of a trio of West Kootenay cities -- Nelson, Castlegar and Trail. Having a combined population of about 25,000, the three are home to roughly one-quarter of all district residents.

From 1972 until 1984, Nelson, Castlegar and Trail were at the heart of a federal electoral district known, not surprisingly, as Kootenay West.

Revelstoke then was added to the district, which became Kootenay West-Revelstoke. It was known by that moniker in the 1988 and 1993 general elections.

After the latter contest, Revelstoke was removed (to Kootenay-Columbia), and replaced by three towns from the Boundary-South Okanagan region -- Grand Forks, Oliver and Osoyoos. The riding's name was altered to West Kootenay-Okanagan.

That was the name it carried into the 1997 federal general election. The appellation was altered once again, prior to the 2000 tilt, when it became known as Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan. All in all, from the 1970s through to the turn of the century, the riding's name was accurately descriptive of its geographical components.

At that point further changes occurred, notably expansion westward to bring in Princeton. Inexplicably, at that time all reference to the West Kootenays, the Boundary region, or the South Okanagan was eliminated. For the 2004 federal general election, the new district was called Southern Interior.

It later was amended to British Columbia Southern Interior in anticipation of the 2006 contest.

Topsy-turvy history

The riding's topsy-turvy electoral history can be seen from the political career of Bob Brisco, a former Progressive Conservative MP. Brisco ran unsuccessfully in 1972 against the NDP incumbent, Randolph Harding, but he beat the same opponent in 1974. He was victorious again in 1979, this time over New Democrat Lyle Kristiansen.

Kristiansen prevailed over the incumbent in 1980, but Brisco took it back in 1984, and then Kristiansen won it again in 1988.

In six tilts between 1972 and 1988, Brisco was a winner in three, and a loser in three more. The Tories and New Democrats clearly were closely divided in terms of electoral support.

Prior to the 1993 federal general election, which in British Columbia saw the collapse of both the Progressive Conservatives and the New Democrats, both Brisco and Kristiansen wisely retired from politics. Neither likely would have been successful in West Kootenay-Revelstoke, which was captured by a newcomer, Jim Gouk, representing the nascent Reform Party.

Gouk held the seat from 1993 through the 2004 federal general election, even as the riding boundaries and name changed to West Kootenay-Okanagan, then Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan, and finally Southern Interior.

Not only did the district's name undergo near-continuous alterations; Gouk himself won re-election under the Reform banner in 1997, then with the Canadian Alliance in 2000, and for the recreated Conservative party in 2004.

After the latter contest -- in which he defeated the NDP candidate, Alex Atamanenko, by a mere 680 votes -- Gouk retired from politics.

Zeisman's doomed run

Atamanenko again represented the New Democrats in 2006, and it was expected that his main opponent would be Derek Zeisman, a Conservative, As the campaign got underway, however, it was revealed that Zeisman faced criminal charges for attempting to smuggle large quantities of alcohol across the Canada-U.S. border.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper subsequently announced that, although it was too late to drop Zeisman's name from the ballot, he was being kicked out of the Tory party. If elected, Harper said, Zeisman would not be welcome in the Conservative caucus.

What once was thought to be a close contest ended as a blow-out, with Atamanenko winning the seat by a margin of nearly 13,400 votes. Zeisman finished a distant third, more than 400 votes behind the Liberal candidate.

Too tough to call

The chart above shows British Columbia Southern Interior over the past three federal general elections. (Although the riding did not exist in 2000, Elections Canada transposed the results from Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan and Okanagan-Coquihalla to reflect redistribution.)

In the 2000 contest, Gouk and the Canadian Alliance captured nearly half of the riding's votes -- 48.0 per cent.

Four years later -- and three years after the provincial New Democratic Party albatross had been removed from the federal party's neck -- Atamanenko and the NDP climbed into a virtual tie with Gouk and the Conservatives.

In 2006, with Tory Zeisman's character and candidacy an open question, the Conservative vote plummeted while New Democrat Atamanenko soared to 49.0 per cent of the vote.

So, what kind of contest may we expect in 2008? Will Atamanenko's personal popularity help him retain the seat, even as province-wide polls show the Tories with support from 40 per cent and more of the electorate? What impact will a sinking Liberal vote, and rising Green support, have in the riding?

We'll find out only after the votes have been counted, because past results are of minimal utility in this hotly-contested riding. British Columbia Southern Interior will be one of the most interesting battles to watch on October 14.