‘Forever Canadian’ Results Shock the UCP Government

When Thomas Lukaszuk claimed he could deliver pro-Canada petition forms signed by 300,000 Albertans to Elections Alberta in the three months allowed by the United Conservative Party’s “citizen initiative” legislation, many said it couldn’t be done.

Premier Danielle Smith’s openly separatist political allies laughed at the former Progressive Conservative deputy premier and called him “Little Tommy Lukaszuk” on social media, which I guess is how you insult someone who worries you when you don’t have much imagination.

They could afford to laugh, they must have reckoned. Smith’s government had changed the rules to give them more time and require fewer signatures for their referendum petition, which appears to have been designed to create the conditions for a unilateral declaration of independence in the likely event the UCP’s separatist faction couldn’t muster the popular support needed to secede from Canada.

Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian campaign chose the harder course in order to file their question first, in hopes of blocking the separatist petition under the murky rules of the Citizen Initiative Act. The conventional wisdom was that the process set out in the legislation, including in-person signing of all petition forms, passed by Jason Kenney’s UCP government made the task impossible.

But more than 5,000 volunteers have been toiling since August collecting signatures at markets and fairs, church dinners and coffee shops, in rural and urban communities.

And Tuesday Lukaszuk and his supporters delivered 61 boxes containing petition sheets with over 456,000 signatures to Elections Alberta’s modest headquarters in an Edmonton industrial park.

That’s almost certainly sufficient to ensure Elections Alberta can validate enough to reach the 294,000 required by the law.

“We knew that the vast majority of Albertans want to remain Canadian; hence, we are not asking for a referendum,” Lukaszuk said. “We’re asking the premier to do the right thing and ask Alberta MLAs to vote on this issue and put separatist talks to bed once and for all.”

So who’s laughing now?

Certainly not the separatist crowd, including its allies in the UCP’s leadership and the premier’s office — although we can assume they’ll do whatever they can to block the petition or invalidate the Forever Canadian signatures.

In addition to being a remarkable feat of organization, Tuesday’s development is no “nothing burger,” as the separatist crowd has tried to dismiss the campaign.

First, it clearly demonstrates enormous popular support for Canada among Albertans.

Second, it sets the stage for a renewed political campaign if Smith unwisely persists with her independence scheming.

Third, it boxes the UCP politically if it won’t solve the problem by allowing a vote in the legislature instead of proceeding to a referendum.

But if such a vote goes ahead, imagine what would happen in a subsequent provincial election if the entire UCP caucus supported separation from Canada. Imagine what would happen to the caucus if it split on the issue. The best course might be for Smith to try to whip her caucus to vote Canadian — but that, too, might be easier said than done.

Elections Alberta now has 60 days to verify the petition, including contacting a sample of signers to verify their information and signatures. The agency will report the results no later than Jan. 6, it said in a news release.

Meanwhile, more fallout from the Kenney era citizen-initiative legislation is hitting the UCP in another quarter.

A petition to remove Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides as MLA for Calgary-Bow has until Jan. 31 next year to gather 16,006 valid signatures from the riding’s approximately 37,500 residents.

Nicolaides appears worried. Perhaps it has occurred to him that some of the 51,000 pissed-off teachers who have just had their fundamental Charter right to free association suspended by the UCP’s use of the Constitution’s notwithstanding clause to force them back to work after a three-week strike might pitch in to help gather signatures.

In a whiny letter to constituents posted on social media, Nicolaides complained “that the petitioner is using the recall petition to influence government policy and not because she has any legitimate concerns regarding my conduct as an MLA.”

“In 2019, when then UCP leader Jason Kenney campaigned on the idea of recall, he noted that it should be an ‘instrument of accountability’ if elected officials ‘totally violate the trust of voters,’” Nicolaides wrote.

Now, I suppose that playing a key role in suspending the fundamental rights of 51,000 Albertans could be described as totally violating the trust of voters. But, no matter, what Kenney said is not what the legislation says.

Indeed, it is said here that Kenney, who was certainly the kind of politician who always read the legislation he proposed, knew of that supposed omission perfectly well. And this is because, it is reasonable to assume, the plan was to use it against NDP MLAs. Apparently it occurred to no one in the UCP strategic brain trust that turnabout is fair play, and someday it might be used against their own side.

Well, at least the UCP can take comfort from the fact it continues to poll strongly with voters...

Oh, wait! A new poll by Leger released this week suggests the tide may be turning on the UCP’s popularity — possibly as a result of its treatment of the province’s teachers.

“Teachers are viewed as responsible and credible, while the government faces mounting reputational challenges,” according to a summary of the results of the Oct. 10-12 survey, which suggested the UCP government’s support has fallen to 24 per cent and that 61 per cent of Albertans now think their government is on the wrong track.