Please Advise! How Did Poilievre Fall Out of His Seat?

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

The results are in. The Liberals under Mark Carney won a minority government. Both NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre were defeated in their own ridings. Surprised?

Signed,

Voter

Dear Voter,

Months ago — a long-lost historical epoch — Canadian politics looked set in stone. Then came the asteroid, a screaming orange fireball destroying all in its path. Trump changed everything. But which dominant predator would be hit hardest? It was supposed to be Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. The real victims turned out to be elsewhere. Liberal Leader Mark Carney could have made his acceptance speech on a pile of defeated New Democrats.

Was Pierre Poilievre a loser? Absolutely. In his Ottawa Carleton riding, Liberal winner Bruce Fanjoy wasn't the only one carrying a big L. All politics is local, they say. Poilievre crossed the country with a message that Ottawa is the problem. Could it be that message might not play well in Ottawa? Also, when a bunch of horn-honking hooligans descend on your city and make life a prolonged misery, you might want to avoid bringing said yahoos boxes of doughnuts.

Or it might have been just be a matter of familiarity. A little Poilievre goes a long way. In 1959, the Teddy Bears sang “To Know Him Is to Love Him.” More recently, Taylor Swift sang “familiarity breeds contempt.” Lot of Swifties in Carleton, apparently.

But did he fail as a party leader? It depends on the time frame. Given a six-month window, Poilievre ranks with epic losers like the Washington Generals, the 2005 AC Milan squad and the April 8, 2025, Dallas Stars. After blowing a 25-point poll advantage, Pierre Poilievre is the Susan Lucci/Buffalo Bills of Canadian politics.

But given a two-week window? In that span, Poilievre looks like the Comeback Kid. As the election began, his campaign itinerary was a flight plan circling the drain. TV ads held ominous signals. Liberal ads starred either Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre. Conservative ads starred Stephen Harper, and two old white dudes golfing and calling the Liberals “clowns.” Those latter spots seemed designed to lock down the support of guys with “Fuck Trudeau” flags on their pickup trucks. It didn't seem like a wise strategy.

But perhaps there are more of those truck-flag dudes than some of us realized. As it turned out, the Conservatives increased their seat totals by a couple of dozen at least. In terms of vote share, Poilievre is the most successful Conservative leader since Brian Mulroney in 1988. You never know. Wednesday Addams had a pet spider. Apparently some people find Poilievre cuddly.

As many expected, the NDP vote collapsed, losing them official party status and seeing leader Jagmeet Singh lose his seat and resign the leadership. What wasn't expected was how much of the NDP vote would switch to the Conservatives. It underlines an oft-overlooked aspect of the Canadian electorate: it consists of humanoid organisms. Die-cast widgets are better, because they do what they are supposed to. Human voters are weird and unreliable. Many of them are not even political scientists. Disgraceful.

Voters are indeed bewildering. Canadians defied Trump. They defeated Poilievre in his own riding. But they also gave his party nearly as many votes as they gave the Liberals, and along the way re-elected Conservative candidate Jamil Jivani, a pal of JD Vance who took the opportunity of a CBC election-night interview to launch into an unhinged rant against Ontario Premier Doug Ford and demonstrate exactly what made the prospect of a Conservative government so scary.

It was a weird election overall. The New Democrats were crushed, yet if current seat totals hold, they might still claim the balance of power. The NDP could still snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Kind of like Pierre Poilievre, but in reverse.