Marking 20 years
of bold journalism,
reader supported.
News
Health
Coronavirus
BC Politics

Risks of New COVID-19 Wave Rising, But Prevention Measures Working

Province’s latest pandemic models show physical distancing, contact tracing working.

Moira Wyton 24 Jun 2020TheTyee.ca

Moira Wyton is The Tyee’s health reporter. Follow her @moirawyton or reach her here. This reporting beat is made possible by the Local Journalism Initiative.

Contacts between British Columbians have doubled since the height of pandemic restrictions, raising risks of a rapid rebound in cases, public health officials said Tuesday.

But continued low numbers of patients in hospital and intensive care indicate that physical distancing measures and thorough contact tracing are helping prevent a resurgence of COVID-19, said provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.

“We need to stay where we are, where we are having safe contacts and we are not seeing dramatic increases,” Henry said as the government released updated modelling on the pandemic.

Preventing an increase in infections will depend on people maintaining physical distances, avoiding indoor gatherings with large crowds and staying home when sick.

“Today’s results show that we must continue to do what is working,” said Health Minister Adrian Dix. “It is the kindest gesture we can offer to each other and the strongest defence against spreading the disease.”

Contact rates are estimated at about 60 to 65 per cent of pre-COVID levels in current models, up from about 30 per cent during the height of public health restrictions in March.

Any rate above about 70 per cent would risk a quick uptick in new infections and undo the work that would allow B.C. to move to phase three of its reopening, expected to be confirmed by Premier John Horgan this week.

“If we... dramatically increased to 80 per cent or back to what used to be normal, we can expect to see that we will have more cases and run the risk of having a rapid rebound in new cases,” said Henry.

Public health measures have also curbed the virus’s potential for exponential growth, bringing the transmission rate down to less than one additional infection for each new case.

Henry said the average number of close contacts of each new infected person has decreased from 11 in March to about three.

“By taking the measures that we’ve done together, we’ve flattened that [rate of transmission] and brought it down to below one,” she said. Public health teams have been able to trace 97 to 99 per cent of a person’s contacts within 24 to 48 hours, allowing testing and self-isolation, and Henry said that needs to continue as measures are relaxed in the third phase.

Almost all contacts need to be found within three days in order to keep the epidemic under control as measures are lifted, she said.

The province is also undertaking new methods of testing for transmission.

The BC Centre for Disease Control has been testing liquid and solid wastewater from Vancouver and parts of Surrey for traces of COVID-19’s genetic sequence for the last five weeks.

So far, there have been no positive tests, but it is a tool that could be useful for seeing whether smaller communities have seen cases.

“That is something we are rolling out and planning on using to help us understand if there has been transmission in that community,” said Henry.

Dix said as the province enters into phase three of reopening later this week, which could include inter-provincial travel and opening movie theatres and hotels, physical distancing will be increasingly important.

“Right now we’re in a good place, we know what to do and that we can do it,” he said. Henry stressed that taking precautions and limiting close contacts will see the province through the summer and into the fall as it awaits a vaccine, while acknowledging this has been a traumatic few months for the province.

“Let’s continue to find that balance and maintain that balance as a community as we chart our path forward,” said Henry.  [Tyee]

  • Share:

Facts matter. Get The Tyee's in-depth journalism delivered to your inbox for free

Tyee Commenting Guidelines

Comments that violate guidelines risk being deleted, and violations may result in a temporary or permanent user ban. Maintain the spirit of good conversation to stay in the discussion.
*Please note The Tyee is not a forum for spreading misinformation about COVID-19, denying its existence or minimizing its risk to public health.

Do:

  • Be thoughtful about how your words may affect the communities you are addressing. Language matters
  • Challenge arguments, not commenters
  • Flag trolls and guideline violations
  • Treat all with respect and curiosity, learn from differences of opinion
  • Verify facts, debunk rumours, point out logical fallacies
  • Add context and background
  • Note typos and reporting blind spots
  • Stay on topic

Do not:

  • Use sexist, classist, racist, homophobic or transphobic language
  • Ridicule, misgender, bully, threaten, name call, troll or wish harm on others
  • Personally attack authors or contributors
  • Spread misinformation or perpetuate conspiracies
  • Libel, defame or publish falsehoods
  • Attempt to guess other commenters’ real-life identities
  • Post links without providing context

LATEST STORIES

The Barometer

Do You Think Naheed Nenshi Will Win the Alberta NDP Leadership Race?

Take this week's poll