BC a Rough Place for Harper

Depending on the reaction to the speech from the throne, Canada's four major political forces could be thrown into a process that could re-define the federal political map.

And British Columbians are far less desiring of a Harper majority government than Canadians are as a whole.

For the past few months, Canadian public opinion has shown timid support for the governing Conservatives, serious questions about the future of the Liberals, interest in some of the causes backed by the New Democrats, and sympathy for the out-of-Parliament Greens.

Opinion on Harper's big issues

Last week, a national poll sought to review how Canadians feel about the five issues that Stephen Harper championed during the last federal campaign. Understandably, a large majority is content with the GST cut, but satisfaction is tepid on two other promises, and low on the remaining two.

The Tories vowed to clean up government by passing the federal accountability act and to help parents with the cost of raising their children. Roughly two-in-five Canadians are ready to commend them for their efforts on both topics. The Conservatives fare poorly in making streets and communities safe by cracking down on crime with just 34 per cent, and in working with the provinces to establish a Patient Wait Times Guarantee with just 30 per cent.

BC: lowest support for Harper

The numbers in Ontario do not differ much from the national percentages, but British Columbia residents are particularly skeptical. More than three-in-four think the government's crime strategy is failing, more than 60 per cent want more action on the health care issue, and more than half do not think much of the cash handout for parents with young children.

When respondents were asked if Harper deserves a majority mandate, 19 per cent of Canadians agreed, but only 12 per cent in B.C. concurred. While 35 per cent of Canadians want the Tories out of Ottawa in the next election, the rejection rate jumps to 44 per cent in B.C.

In short, the Conservative administration has not been able to reach its full potential in the minds of voters, and has not delivered on some key vows. These numbers would certainly be a cause for concern for a minority government seeking a new chance, but the opposition does not appear adequately prepared to mount a challenge.

Following the negative by-election results in Quebec, the Liberals are clearly struggling. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 58 per cent of Canadians -- and 72 per cent of Quebecers -- believe the Liberal Party has weakened over the past year. For 44 per cent of all respondents, the problems to blame are both the sponsorship scandal and the leadership of Stéphane Dion.

Dion scraping bottom

Dion has not connected with Canadians, or with Liberals. More than two-thirds of respondents in the country think he will probably never form a government as leader -- a fate that befell just one of his predecessors -- and 66 per cent of Liberal voters concur. B.C. and Atlantic Canada express the most confidence in an eventual Dion administration, but at a very low 13 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.

Less than a year removed from his leadership victory, Dion has not attained the popularity that usually accompanies a person with his current position. He is a distant fourth when Canadians and Liberal voters are asked to choose between any of the four politicians who had the best showing at last year's Grit convention, and manages a second place finish in B.C. (behind Michael Ignatieff) and in Atlantic Canada (behind Bob Rae).

Layton besting Dion

In June, as questions about Dion's leadership multiplied and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton lambasted the deal between Dion and Green leader Elizabeth May, some Canadians appeared to warm up to the New Democrats as an alternative. Almost two-in-five said Layton would make a good prime minister -- a 12-point advantage over Dion -- and 45 per cent commended the party's lawmakers for their ethical standards.

Earlier this month, a poll asked Canadians about the surplus, and a large majority (69 per cent) agreed with Layton's opinion that all political parties should have a say in how to invest the funds. Last month, support for withdrawing Canadian troops from Afghanistan -- a view that Layton has persistently advocated -- reached a high of 56 per cent in the country. The challenge will be to turn these voices into votes. In June, three-in-10 Canadians said they would consider voting for the NDP in the next election. Only 17.5 per cent did so in 2006.

Greens get a look

Also last summer, with the environment becoming the top issue in the minds of Canadians, a survey took a second look at the Greens, and found more sympathy than backing.

One-in-four would consider supporting a Green candidate in a federal election, an overly positive assessment for a party that has never reached double-digits in a national race. Still, 49 per cent of respondents said they do not have a clear idea of what the Green Party stands for.

While more than half of Canadians believe it is important to have a Green Party lawmaker in Ottawa, May's challenge is similar to Layton's: finding a way to turn feelings into seats. In April, 55 per cent of Canadians rejected the views of Environment Minister John Baird about the negative economic effects of cutting greenhouse emissions. In an election with environmental policy -- including the Kyoto Protocol -- as the ballot issue, support for the Greens jumped to 15 per cent.

Related Tyee stories:

• Quebec's 'Huge Shift'
  NDP victor says 'great divide' on sovereignty no longer drives voters.
• Memo to Dion: It's Not Working
  Why the Grit green gambit won't whip Harper.
• Oh, Fickle British Columbia!
  Once again, in 2006, we bucked the national voting trend.