Please Advise! Who Will Win in Alberta’s Referendum?

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

What's your prediction for the Alberta referendum next Monday?

Signed,

Sep

Dear Sep,

Dr. Steve is not a fan of referendums. The questions are specific, but the responses tend to be general. The question might be “Do you want a new public swimming pool?” and a guy votes “No” because his neighbour's noisy dog kept him awake all night and he wants to vent somewhere.

Say this for the Alberta referendum, though: the main issue is big enough that it might supersede petty concerns. Which is not to say everybody will be clear-eyed and rational about it. Just what people are voting for may not be fully understood by voters or the government.

It so happens that Dr. Steve was in Alberta last week. It was the Edmonton area, not exactly a separatist hotbed — the only campaign sign he saw was a “Better Together” billboard near the Edmonton airport. But Dr. Steve had an interesting conversation with a taxi driver on the long trip to town. (Edmonton is a city that desperately needs an airport train. And it’s not as though they’d have to tunnel. How about a referendum on that?)

This driver seems to have turned his cab into a mobile polling operation. “Seventy per cent of my passengers will vote to stay,” he said confidently. “They are not happy about the referendum.”

And the rest? “The others,” he said, “are very excited to have U.S. passports.”

U.S. passports? Come again? Isn’t separation about an independent Alberta? “No, no, I don't think so,” the driver said. “They expect to join the U.S.”

Well, there it is. Say what they might about creating a strong, independent Alberta, this informal taxi tally suggests that the separatist movement is really MAGA North.

Dr. Steve practised his shocked face in the rear-view mirror, but really, this is about as surprising as dental bills after Halloween. To say the separatists have been playing footsie with the Trump administration is to seriously understate the case. Is there such a thing as third-base footsie? OnlyFans footsie? XXX footsie?

The Alberta Über Alles crowd even sent emissaries to Washington offering goodies in exchange for support, goodies that reportedly included a cut of Alberta’s oil royalties, access to precious metals and a transportation right-of-way across the province. Someone might have told them that Colonel Sanders does not typically make deals with chickens. The would-be separatists might as well have coated themselves with 11 different herbs and spices.

The Alberta bros do seem to have something in common with the MAGA crew — they are at no risk of being called the best and the brightest. They’re basically a gaggle of Pete Hegseths, or whatever the collective noun is for Hegseths. A half-wit of Hegseths? Hammer-sack of Hegseths? Brain-death of Hegseths? A foul, steaming heap of Hegseths?

The Alberta separatists have attracted some impressive boosters, though. Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk are big fans. Dunkin’ Donuts can't get celebrity endorsements like that. But this is nothing new for Putin. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently said that Russia interfered in the Brexit referendum too. Putin loves to mess with democracy. He’s probably supporting Guillermo on Dancing with the Stars.

With or without Russian interference, referendums often have unpredictable results. This separation question seems to be separating Premier Danielle Smith from her political base. The Venn diagram of separatists and United Conservative Party supporters resembles an obese rat wedged inside a sewer pipe.

Not every UCP voter is a separatist, but almost every separatist is — or was — UCP. Smith may have hoped to placate her party base by allowing the referendum, but by campaigning against separation, she has succeeded in pissing off just about everybody. Smith the arsonist is now posing as a firefighter. But the Alberta premier may have started a blaze with a serious backdraft.