New Polls Give Libs Lead in Three Metro Van Swing Ridings

A new survey of seven swing ridings in British Columbia shows the Liberals have emerged as the choice in urban middle-class areas of Metro Vancouver while the New Democrats are struggling in several rural constituencies to hold on to narrow leads over the resurgent Conservatives.

The Liberals have maintained strong leads over Tory incumbents in North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country and Vancouver South, according to the third and final wave of election polling conducted by Insights West for the environmentalist Dogwood Initiative.

"In Metro Vancouver, the Liberals are coming back," said Mario Canseco, vice-president of public affairs at Insights West. "They are getting support from the multicultural community. They are doing well not only here, but in Montreal and Toronto. They are going back to being the party they used to be: a party dominant in the cities."

And with the Liberals leading in national polls, said Canseco, party canvassers in Metro Vancouver now also have the advantage of being able tell voters on the doorstep that their party's local candidate could be in the next government. "This is a change from our earlier polling when the NDP was in the lead and it looked like Tom Mulcair could be prime minister."

The Dogwood Initiative poll of decided voters found that Liberal candidate Jonathan Wilkinson continues to lead Conservative Andrew Saxton in North Vancouver, with the support of 41 per cent of respondents compared to the incumbent's 33 per cent.

In West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country, Liberal challenger Pam Goldsmith-Jones, the former West Vancouver mayor, is still ahead of incumbent Conservative John Weston, 42 per cent to 31 per cent. NDP support in those two ridings appears to be in free fall after the party recorded respectable support in previous polling this summer.

"Now with the support the Trudeau Liberals are getting at the national levels, the candidates on the North Shore are gaining and in first place," said Canseco.

The exception to this pattern is Burnaby North-Seymour where New Democrat Carol Baird Ellan, at 36 per cent, is in a statistical tie with Conservative Mike Little, at 33 per cent. Liberal Terry Beach trails at third with 21 per cent. Green candidate Lynne Quarmby did well in early polling in the summer but is now at nine per cent. Quarmby, however, could be a spoiler with her support being enough to allow Tory candidate Little to score a narrow victory over the New Democrat.

In Vancouver South, Liberal Harjit Sajjan remains narrowly in front at 38 per cent, over Conservative incumbent Wai Young, at 33 per cent.

Interior, Island battles fought by NDP and Tories

The Dogwood survey found that the fight on Vancouver Island and in the Interior remains mostly one between the NDP and the Conservative Party, which has regained the backing of former supporters who had grown disenchanted over the Mike Duffy-Senate scandal and other affairs, according to Canseco.

"I don't think there will be a massive victory in B.C. for the Liberals when we all count all the votes, because they are starting from 13 per cent in the province last time," said Canseco. "They have no strength on the Island or the Okanagan. But when it comes to Metro Vancouver, they are definitely connecting well."

In Courtenay-Alberni, New Democrat Gord Johns, at 34 per cent, is in a dead heat with Conservative incumbent John Duncan, at 32 per cent. In South Okanagan-West Kootenay, the NDP's Dick Cannings leads Conservative Marshall Neufeld, 36 per cent to 31 per cent.

New Democrat Randall Garrison has a commanding lead in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke at 39 per cent, with the Greens, at 21 per cent, and Liberals, at 20 per cent, tied in second place.

Insights West interviewed between 300 and 403 residents over the telephone in each of the seven ridings between Oct. 5 and 10. The sample sizes have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.*

*Story corrected Oct. 15. to reflect the correct margin of error.