No one should be surprised that Justin Trudeau is facing a caucus revolt against his leadership.
And no one should assume that the backbench bellyaching has much more than zero chance of driving the sitting prime minister from office.
It is more than obvious why 30 or so Liberal MPs think it’s time for a career path change for the man who has won three federal elections for them. The bloom is off this political rose. Trudeau’s deep unpopularity is an albatross around the party’s neck.
Polling has suggested for over a year that the Grits are on their way to the electoral slaughterhouse with the PM at the helm. In an odd sense, some Liberal MPs are running against their own leader. And the impression has set in, amplified by media saturation coverage of every new bit of bad political news for the government, that the PM is no Rocky Balboa.
That impression was reinforced with recent byelection losses in two Liberal strongholds: Toronto-St. Paul’s, and LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal.
It was reinforced again when longtime national campaign director Jeremy Broadhurst resigned. On his way out the door, Broadhurst said he did not see a path to electoral success in the looming election.
Doubt about Trudeau was reinforced once more when 18 Liberal incumbents decided not to reoffer in an election that could come at any time for the vulnerable minority government. There have been reports that even more Liberal MPs may decide to get out of politics, rather than go down with a sinking ship captained by Justin Trudeau.
Trudeau’s iron grip
So why won’t a caucus revolt by as-yet anonymous MPs be the straw that breaks the camel’s back?
Very simple. The Conservatives voted to accept Michael Chong’s Reform Act, which gave MPs the right to vote for a leadership review if 20 per cent of caucus wanted one. That’s how Erin O’Toole was unceremoniously ousted to make way for Pierre Poilievre over the trucker siege of Ottawa.
The Liberals didn’t adopt Chong’s reform empowering caucus to dump a leader. Disenchanted caucus members in the government can sign letters asking that the PM step down. They can whisper anonymously to journalists. And they can hold secret meetings until the cows come home.
But they just don’t have the power to kick Trudeau out. There is not even a formal mechanism to force the PM to face a leadership review.
Bottom line? Only one person can decide to hang up the skates, and that is Justin Trudeau himself.
As long as he remains PM, Trudeau has enormous power over his critics within the party. If there is a major cabinet shuffle in November, as is expected, you can bet that none of the rebel MPs will be moving up in the Liberal world. Nor will they soon become parliamentary secretaries to new cabinet ministers. It will be a lump of coal for every malcontent — or worse.
And there is this question: Rather than resign in the face of internal caucus dissent, what would the rebels do if Trudeau decided to call an election? Run, disavow their party affiliation, retire? As the saying goes, “If you come for the king, you best not miss.”
And should the rebel opposition to the leader become too aggressive or too embarrassing before an election is called, they could find themselves running as Independents in the next trip to the polls.
It is Trudeau, after all, who signs their nomination papers. The one thing a sitting government cannot permit is a caucus within caucus, particularly one pulling in the opposite direction of the leader.
How big a rebellion?
Here is what to watch for in the coming days. First, will the caucus rebels grow in number? If they do, that could spell trouble.
PM Jean Chrétien voluntarily decided to leave office in 2004 after more than half of his caucus declined to declare their support for him in advance of an upcoming leadership review.
But the most important question is this: Will the MPs taking potshots at the leader from the shadows go public? Will any of them defect to another party? Will they release the letter they have signed asking for changes at the top of the party, including a new leader? If they do, they could be expelled from caucus. If they don’t, their rebellion will fizzle.
Although the internal dissent within the government obviously bears watching, Justin Trudeau remains the person to keep an eye on. No one knows exactly what he will do in the current circumstances. There is no denying that the political landscape surrounding him is bleak.
With a 21-point lead in the polls, the Conservatives are all in for bringing the government down and forcing an early election — even if it means making Parliament more dysfunctional than usual. Their recent filibustering in the House made that crystal clear.
The Bloc Québécois aims to extort concessions from the government on old age pension changes that will cost $16 billion. It says it is ready to deal with other parties in Parliament, if the Liberals don’t come through on their demands by the end of the month. It is not really a request, but a threat.
And the NDP, which recently “ripped up” the supply and confidence agreement that kept the minority Trudeau government in power for 2 1/2 years, is turning up the heat.
Jagmeet Singh says the caucus revolt shows that the Liberals are more concerned about their internal squabbling than about meeting the needs of Canadians. That comes after Singh said the Liberals are out of ideas and don’t deserve another term. It’s worth noting that the NDP and the Liberals are now tied in the polls.
Stubborn determination
Despite the dark shadows falling across the government, and the reports that Trudeau is in the “pressure cooker” over this developing caucus revolt, there is no evidence that he will step down. In fact, just the opposite.
Long before his rebel MPs met secretly while he was out of the country, a bevy of MPs and ex-cabinet ministers advised Trudeau to step down, including MP Alexandra Mendès. Mendès went public with that request at the party’s recent caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C.
It has been reported that Mark Carney, a possible replacement for the PM should he resign, told Trudeau in a July conversation that he couldn’t win the next election.
Instead of succumbing to all the pressure from friendly sources, Trudeau seems galvanized in his determination to lead the Liberals into the next election.
The people who know him best know that he relishes the role of underdog, clearly despises Pierre Poilievre and continues to believe he can win over Canadians for a fourth time when it comes down to a choice between Liberal and Conservative values.
Something to remember. When people expressed surprise after he pummelled Senator Patrick Brazeau in a boxing ring, the PM replied, “We Trudeaus are tough.”
How firm is Trudeau about running again, despite all the white water in front of him? The Globe and Mail reported that in his effort to persuade his detractors of his resolve to take on Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau revealed that his decision to stay on had already cost him his marriage to Sophie Grégoire Trudeau.
If he is prepared to lose a marriage of 17 years over a commitment to remain in politics, the prospect of losing an election seems like small potatoes.
The looming showdown
None of this means that Justin Trudeau will definitely lead the Liberals into the next election. His latest globe-trotting to France and Asia had intimations of a farewell tour. And as Joe Biden’s reversal of course showed, the rock of the political world is built on a fairy’s wing. Today’s commitment often turns into tomorrow’s about-face.
If Trudeau really intends to stand and fight, the signs will soon appear. One of them already has. The PM has announced his new national campaign director, Andrew Bevan, former chief of staff to ex-Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne.
In the coming days, the Liberals will hit the airwaves with campaign-style ads, lauding their accomplishments such as pharmacare and dental care and explaining why Poilievre is wrong about the carbon tax.
One of the most important things to watch for is whether Trudeau will try to bring Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre down a few pegs.
For months, Poilievre has effectively defined Trudeau as the do-nothing spoiled brat of Canadian politics, who dithered while housing costs and the national debt doubled on his watch.
If he means to stay, the PM will start throwing some punches of his own, aimed at his opposite number. The latest Abacus poll hinted that Poilievre may have a glass chin. Though his party is postal codes ahead of the Liberals, negative impressions of Poilievre grew by five per cent over the past month from 35 to 40 per cent. Today, only 39 per cent have a positive impression of the Conservative leader.
That result is reminiscent of a February Globe and Mail/Nanos poll that found both Trudeau and Poilievre were deemed to have done a “poor” job of leading their parties: 46 per cent for the PM, and 41 per cent for Poilievre.
The betting on this end is that the PM’s political career will not be ended by a palace revolt of naysayers who think he is washed up. It will be decided where it began — at the ballot box.
The odds are long that Justin Trudeau can pull off a Rocky Balboa, but he will go down fighting.
Read more: Federal Politics
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