Obama May Not Need Ohio and Florida

[Editor's note: Beginning late in the day on Tuesday, Nov. 4, look on our political blog The Hook for a series of mini-personal essays from people around the world reflecting on the meaning of the U.S. election outcome.]

In 2004, John Kerry, running what is now considered one of the most lacklustre campaigns in the Democratic Party's history, was able to garner 252 electoral votes in the United States presidential election, 18 short of the 270 required to win the White House. In the end, Kerry's total when the Electoral College convened was 251, after an elector from Minnesota mistakenly cast a vote for Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards in the presidential category.

When the 2008 campaign began, two "Red" states were anointed as the keys to a Democratic victory. Both had also been the main focus of the past two presidential election nights. In Florida, court injunctions and recounts finally ended in a 537-vote victory for George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000. In Ohio, Kerry came close to defeating Bush in 2004, and the incumbent's victory speech was eventually delivered on Wednesday morning, instead of Tuesday night.

At this point in the race, Democratic nominee Barack Obama is comfortably leading Republican contender John McCain in every state that Kerry won in 2004: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Although no surveys have been released in the District of Columbia, its three electoral votes have gone to the Democrat in every American presidential election.

The two "Blue" states where McCain's support is slightly higher are New Hampshire, where his current bid for the White House began to generate momentum in the primaries, and Wisconsin, where Kerry barely squeaked by Bush in 2004. Still, McCain is nowhere near causing these states to be placed in the "Too close to call" column.

Seeking the magic 18

The current state of affairs means that Obama would require 18 electoral votes from any source to win the election. Evidently, Florida and Ohio are the biggest prizes. The Sunshine State has 27 electoral votes up for grabs, and the Buckeye State -- which has supported the eventual president in every U.S. election since 1964 -- boasts 20 electoral votes. Florida or Ohio would close the deal for Obama, but recent surveys have suggested a volatile electorate.

So, where can Obama get those 18 electoral votes? Let's start by pinpointing the areas where he does not stand a chance of defeating McCain. There are 16 states that can be safely positioned in the Republican column: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The Democrats have not done well lately in any of these states, and Obama -- while polling higher than Kerry did in 2004 -- is not expected to break through.

There is a second list of states, where Obama has succeeded in making the race much closer, even inching ahead of McCain in some polls. Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, and West Virginia are all states that are traditionally Republican territory, with the exception of West Virginia, which usually goes Democrat but was carried by Bush in both 2000 and 2004. A quick call will not necessarily happen in any of these states as election night progresses.

The Missouri factor

One state deserves a more thorough review. Missouri has voted for the eventual White House dweller in every contest since 1900, with the exception of 1956, when the Show Me State picked Adlai Stevenson instead of Dwight Eisenhower. Polls conducted in late October have the two contenders separated by two points or less.

Even if Missouri remains in the Republican column, there are five states that, at this stage, appear to be solidly behind the Democratic nominee. In Colorado, site of this year's Democratic convention, five October polls placed Obama above the 50 per cent mark. In Iowa, where Obama's presidential run began with a caucus triumph, McCain has not been competitive since mid-September. In Nevada, every survey conducted in October has had the Illinois senator in the lead. In New Mexico, McCain has not been ahead of Obama since August. In Virginia, where no Democrat has won since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Obama has surpassed the 50 per cent mark in four surveys conducted in late October.

The hard math

Obama needs to win everything Kerry won, and earn 18 additional electoral votes. If he carries Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia, he would add 39 electoral votes to the Democratic column, doubling what he actually needs to declare victory. The Democratic nominee can win the White House without Ohio and Florida, something that a few months ago seemed simply unattainable.

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