Can Taylor Swing an Axe?

When Premier Gordon Campbell named his new cabinet after the May election, one of the bigger surprises was elevating star newcomer Carole Taylor to the position of finance minister. Taylor had, to be sure, a raft of high-level managerial experience, but it remains a rarity for the finance job to go to someone who has not previously sat in the legislature.

That's because the finance minister, like the premier, is, to a greater or lesser degree, the "minister of everything." Every minister has to persuade the finance minister of the value of the new programs he or she wants to introduce; every minister has to convince the finance minister that none of their existing programs should be cut or eliminated; every minister is, in the end, dependent upon the finance minister for the resources they need to run their ministry.

So when Campbell gave Taylor the high-profile finance portfolio, it appeared to be quite a gift for her. But as the days of both the fall "mini-budget" and next year's full budget draw closer, it now seems that inside that brightly-wrapped package may hide nothing better than a few lumps of coal.

Taylor, it turns out, is finding herself in a tougher position than any finance minister since the Campbell government took power in 2001.

Downsizing and increasing

When Gary Collins took over the ministry immediately after the rout of the previous NDP administration, he had in many ways a tough job to do. His job was to say no to everybody and everything. Working alongside Campbell, he had to oversee the "core review process" which everyone in B.C. knew was government-speak for a program of downsizing and program cuts. He had to face the heat when various groups of citizens were outraged about the cuts to social programs or environmental programs, or the increases in fees and taxes.

But all the time he had to make those difficult cuts, Collins had a built-in excuse. He became a master at reciting the lines about "structural deficits" (even though the auditor general did point out that the final two NDP budgets had been genuinely balanced), and "ten years of mismanagement" and how the Liberals had to make the tough choices now to protect health and education and social services in the longer haul. He talked about the need to get B.C.'s economy booming again and to "put our financial house in order" before the finance minister could even consider saying "yes" to a single spending request.

Fat times

True, a lot of economists might have disagreed with Collins's analysis. There was, for instance, the little matter of the huge tax cuts Collins brought in on almost his first day in the job, apparently without waiting to see what shape the province's finances were truly in. But for the most part, the polls showed that the spin Collins put on his hard-nosed approach was working. Most people didn't like the cuts, but they were prepared to be patient, to see if the economy did turn around and allow things to improve for them.

By the time Collins left government abruptly to take a job in the private sector, the Campbell Liberals were within months of an election. That meant that Collins's successor, former health minister Colin Hansen, had a relatively easy time while in the finance job. He, after all, was allowed to say "yes" to nearly everything. John Les was given a $200 million slush fund he could use for discretionary spending in communities. A new deal with Ottawa on health care funding meant there was money to be spent in that contentious ministry too.

And Hansen got to spend his time talking about how wonderfully well the economy was doing, and how much credit should go to his party's administration for having done just what Collins said -- getting the financial house in order and the economy booming again.

Spree fall?

So far, so good. But now enter Ms. Taylor, with a much more difficult message to spin. British Columbians can hardly be criticized for expecting the spending spree to continue, at least to some degree. After all, neither Collins nor Hansen was suggesting that the economic turnaround was going to last only until the end of May. And any British Columbian who hasn't been living in an isolated Kootenay cave knows that the continuing skyrocketing prices of oil and natural gas are going to bring the province a substantial windfall in royalties, and a surplus significantly larger than had originally been predicted.

The problem is that Premier Campbell and many of his colleagues don't want to continue to spend money. Their ideological slant is all towards smaller government, fewer government programs, and restraint on the spending of tax dollars. They want the finance minister to go back to saying "no" to at least the great majority of requests that come her way.

But she doesn't have a good story to tell the public about why she is saying no. All indications point to the fact that there's money available, and there's no question that ministries like health, child and family development, and education can amply demonstrate the benefits that would occur with more resources.

The ongoing bitter dispute with the B.C. Teachers Federation is likely to be only the opening round. Teachers who, like everyone else, have seen the price of gasoline alone rise 25 per cent or more in the past few months, can hardly be condemned for thinking that at least a small wage increase to cover such rising costs would be reasonable. But Campbell has already made clear that the government's position is a zero per cent increase. With more contracts up for negotiation, and more groups wanting funds for everything from hospital equipment to fisheries protection, these scenarios are likely to repeat themselves more and more frequently.

British Columbians were willing to tighten their belts when they could see a good reason for it. It will be much more problematic to get them to do so when it is clear to them that the reason is solely ideological and not economic.

Veteran journalist Barbara McLintock is the Victoria-based contributing editor to The Tyee.