It's Kerry Against Bush

However well he might do with the majority of southerners-who are conservative Republicans--in November, on February 10 John Kerry overwhelmingly carried the votes of relatively conservative Democrats and independents in the two southern states of Virginia and Tennessee. Mind you these are "border states" rather than Deep South states-northern Virginia, the area around Washington, DC, is full of more or less liberal federal employees for example. But still the point was made-those voters believed that Kerry might compete favourably against George Bush in November. The same would apply to Kentucky, North Carolina and Florida, if not to states like Alabama and Mississippi.

At the core, this was an anti-Bush vote. Many southerners put aside their regional preferences for the homeboys, John Edwards and Wesley Clark, to vote for the man that they thought could thump Bush. They are afraid of more foreign military adventures and they are even more fearful of losing their jobs. And they dislike the dark climate of perpetual fear through which this scowling president runs the country.

The Democrats are now in endgame mode. Wesley Clark, intriguing but politically green, just dropped out, and the odd Howard Dean will do so after he gets thrashed next Tuesday in Wisconsin. John Edwards will hang in there longer, just in case Kerry, a cautious fellow, suddenly stuffs both feet in his mouth or is revealed to be a bigamist. Chances are that Edwards will withdraw after losing the spate of huge primaries, including New York and California, on Super Tuesday, March 2.

Arrows in Kerry's quiver

Then won't the dirt fly. The Republicans will try to depict Kerry as a flaming New England liberal, out of touch with the rest of the nation.  And they will ratchet up the issue of gay marriage, in order to try to lure the votes of the two-thirds of Americans who oppose it-urging them to cast their ballot on that issue rather than on national defense or the economy. I don't know if this bird will fly, but they will give it a try.

Unfortunately, the campaign will drag on for nine more months, and many events could intervene-another massive terrorist attack for example-that could turn the election in ways no one can anticipate. Incumbent presidents are hard to dislodge, in part because they control the levers of power and ultimate authority-they can control far more events than their opponents can.

Still, Kerry has lots of arrows in his quiver. First of all John Edwards would make an attractive vice-presidential candidate. He is southern, moderate, a great campaigner and a ray of sunshine to put next to the rather sombre Kerry in opposition to the snarling Bush.

More importantly for American voters, Kerry has the Patriot Advantage, usually a Republican property. He was a decorated war hero in Vietnam, and this contrasts to Bush's semi-draft-dodging in the Air National Guard during that conflict. Bush's lack of attendance to basic military duties while in the Guard highlights the contrast, and the Democrats will keep that bit of history alive. 

To capitalize on this advantage, in what I think is the most brilliant part of his strategy, Kerry has championed veterans like himself (and unlike Bush).  Veterans are a normally conservative, overwhelmingly Republican voting block, centred in the conservative red states of the South and West.  If Kerry can move a substantial proportion of these men and their families to his side, this move could swing the election.

Black voters big challenge

Moreover, highlighting veterans has given Kerry the opportunity to trumpet his patriotism while appearing modest, and to attack Bush by inference without ever becoming uncivil. Conservative midwesterners and southerners will feel more comfortable voting for him when such flag waving is linked to their concern for their economic futures. To put it crassly, Kerry might well recapture some of the Bubba vote while not alienating black voters at the same time.

This strategy would be amplified if poor black voters would go to the polls in those red states, something the Democrats will work at very hard, although with uncertain chances for success. Poor people feel so alienated that they fail to vote. Rich folks are the most disciplined voters, and Bush will be their man forever. If black participation rates went up 10 per cent, that would cancel the rich votes vote, but it is unlikely to happen.

I can imagine the climax of the final presidential debate, sometime in October. Bush declares that his record demonstrates he is the leader to fight terrorism and keep America strong. Kerry turns to him and says, "There are times when any president must contemplate the use of massive American military force. I have been at war and know its terrible costs in American lives and the lives of the citizens in nations at war. And so I would never manipulate ambiguous intelligence data, mixing it with some rigid and extreme ideology to lead Americans into an unnecessary war. War if absolutely necessary, but never for less."

Mark my words-that moment will come. But it is impossible to sense what the voters will decide so long from now.

I have a lurking fear of my own-the possibility of Kerry being assassinated. Nothing conspiratorial in my mind, but it has happened often enough.

Historian Michael Fellman, author of several books on the Civil War, including The Making of Robert E. Lee, is director of the Graduate Liberal Studies Program at Simon Fraser University. He writes an occasional column on the unfolding U.S. presidential election for The Tyee.