What to Expect from Victoria in 2004

Predicting the future by examining the past is a bit like driving down the highway using only the rear-view mirror for guidance.  Nevertheless, the past year in British Columbia politics does hint at things likely to happen in 2004. 

Ignore the political spin from both government and opposition, and the major initiatives of the provincial government in the coming year become clearer.  Here are a few things to watch for:

Love it or loathe it, the push to privatize or sell off British Columbia's public assets will continue.  In 2003 BC Hydro was split in two, and one-third of its operations were privatized.  Canadian National achieved a long-standing dream and bought the rights to run BC Rail--for a song.  BC Ferries became a privately incorporated organization.

However, not all sales went as planned.  After spending millions to design and promote the sale of the Coquihalla Highway, the government backed off at the last minute.  Privatizing government-run liquor stores proved to be more difficult and less profitable than expected.

Next round of sell-offs

In spite of such problems, the current government's appetite for selling off assets remains strong.  Early in 2004 arrangements to privatize the operations of BC Building Corporation will be finalized.  And in Abbottsford construction will be underway on the province's first major hospital to be built and run by a private corporation. 

Undoubtedly conflict between government and unions will continue in 2004; in fact it's likely to escalate.  In 2003 the government intervened in labour negotiations with a frequency unprecedented in the province's history.  Teaching assistants at the University of BC, workers at BC Ferries, and members of the IWA up and down the Coast were among the targets of government interference.

2004 will bring more of the same.  Collective agreements covering teachers, nurses, college instructors, health professionals and many other public sector workers are up for re-negotiation.  Given the government's stated aim of avoiding wage increases for three years, talks are not likely to go smoothly.  When negotiations collapse, expect the Legislature to impose collective agreements.

How budget will be balanced

As reduction of government payrolls continues for a third year, continued cutting or contracting out of public sector jobs can be expected.  Workers in hospitals and long-term care facilities will continue to have their jobs sold off to private sector bidders.  Similar actions can be expected in other areas--education, for one.

The government's efforts to deal with huge budget deficits created by the tax cuts of 2001 will result in higher taxes and fees.  In 2003 the deficit was smaller due to increases in property and gas taxes and in user fees for many government services.  Health services in particular cost British Columbians more in 2003--drug costs jumped as PharmaCare was gutted, residents in long-term care facilities had to pay more. 

The government predicts a balanced budget for 2004.  Already an additional $40 million in tobacco taxes has been announced as part of efforts to achieve that goal.  More increases in taxes and fees are coming.

Government slashed spending in two major areas in 2003--services to children and families and welfare support.  That pattern will continue in 2004.  Preliminary plans are for a further reduction of $70 million in services to children and families.  And in April, the two-year limit on receiving welfare payments kicks in--the only such restriction in Canada.

Tuition to surge upwards

The list of other likely government actions in 2004 is a long one:  College and university tuition will again jump by 25-30 percent.  School districts will close more schools.  Smaller communities will continue to lose health services as regionalization continues.

The impact of scandals--new and old, alleged or real--on government actions is, of course, unpredictable.  Equally uncertain is the effect of popularity polls.  In spite of an end-of-year poll showing government support falling to 41 percent and support for the NDP rising to 37 percent, the effect of the NDP's new leadership remains to be seen. 

One thing is certain for 2004: BC politics will not be dull.

Paul Ramsey is a former MLA and Cabinet Minister.  He now teaches at CNC and is a Visiting Professor in the Political Science Program at UNBC.