Please Advise! Carney Is Up, Eby’s Down. Where Are We?

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to politicians, the rich and famous, the troubled and well-heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

Thanks to floor-crossings and byelections, Mark Carney has a five-seat edge in Parliament. B.C.’s NDP government has only a one-seat majority. What’s the difference?

Signed,

Provincial

Dear P,

After their respective elections, Mark Carney and David Eby were in remarkably similar situations — perilously balanced on the edge of majority and minority. How things have changed.

Since the federal election Carney has gone from strength to strength with floor-crossings as steady as a midnight parade of love-crazed salamanders. Then with a trio of seats up for grabs in Monday’s byelections, Carney drained a trey at the buzzer. Now he’s Major Mark. Carney can do what he wants. He could pick fights with the Pope. He could post pictures of himself as Jesus. Why not? He’s been gathering enough converts.

And then there’s Eby. He does not have a five-seat majority — just one. It's the difference between Mighty Mouse and church mouse. This week, that difference was demonstrated starkly.

Lately the Eby government has been wrestling with DRIPA, the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act. The act was passed in 2019 under then-premier John Horgan, aligning provincial law with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

But in December, a B.C. Court of Appeal decision over mining rights found in favour of the Gitxaała Nation. Following the 2025 decision granting the Cowichan First Nation title over a parcel of land on the south arm of the Fraser River, the business community and some property owners have been thrown into a panic. News stories have fed fears of a dire threat to homeowners. In this payback scenario, First Nations come knocking on your door, saying “Hey, nice TV, think I'll take it. And your house too, settler. Go settle in the back alley.”

Fearmongering aside, the recent decisions have put legitimate legal issues into play. In proposing to suspend DRIPA, the Eby government was seeking leeway to deal with them.

And this week Eby discovered just how much leeway he has. The premier has less wiggle room than a WestJet economy passenger. He’s a 20-pound cat in a shoebox. Unlike the cat, Eby is not feeling comfortable.

The plan was to make the DRIPA suspension a confidence vote. All you need to make that work is votes and confidence, and Eby soon found he had neither. A number of NDP MLAs voiced their concerns, but they could always be cajoled with gentle reasoning or a cast-iron skillet. However, Vancouver-Strathcona MLA Joan Phillip privately made it clear to the premier that there was zero chance she’d go along. And that’s all it took. A single defection and the government was facing defeat. Navigating a confidence vote would make the Strait of Hormuz look like a pleasure cruise. Never mind.

What now? There’s a chance the legislation could still pass now that it's no longer a confidence vote. Certainly the Conservatives ought to play along — they view DRIPA with about the same amount of enthusiasm as the upcoming David Suzuki tribute concert.

But when the NDP made it a confidence vote, the Conservatives were sort of stuck. They faced the painful choice of either supporting the government, supporting Aboriginal title or facing an election. Sophie herself never faced such a dilemma.

Now that it’s no longer a question of bringing down the government, Conservatives, or at least Independents like Elenore Sturko, could vote for the suspension of DRIPA. Lord knows they want to, and that’s just the beginning. Given a chance, the Conservatives would dump DRIPA straight into the wood chippa.

Eby has to envy the prime minister. Wouldn’t a few floor-crossings be nice for the premier? If Marilyn Gladu can make the switch, anything's possible, right? Maybe a disgruntled John Rustad? Maybe an episode of Extreme Caucus Makeover?

Or maybe you play the hand you were dealt. Like the song says, gotta know when to fold ’em.