Trump’s Ceasefire Won’t End in Peace

Tuesday brought back ugly memories of the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when it really felt, especially in North America, that we were hours away from an all-out nuclear war.

This time, though, we weren’t immediate targets. Instead, we were watching U.S. President Donald Trump threaten to kill a civilization Tuesday night.

His threats met the definition of genocide. It would have been possible only with multiple nuclear weapons, ending an 81-year pause in their use in wartime. That in turn would drive scores of countries to start building their own nuclear bombs, and some of the bombs would surely be used in war.

Diplomatic backchannels must have been moving like whitewater rapids all day Tuesday, and by mid-afternoon Trump had postponed his planned genocide for two weeks.

Pakistan had brokered an agreement to negotiate an end to the war, after both sides accepted the U.S.’s 15-point proposal and Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal.

Al Jazeera, citing Israel’s Channel 12, has summarized the U.S. plan. It includes the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities, transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium to the International Energy Agency and a commitment never to develop nuclear weapons.

The Americans also demand the end of Iranian support for its regional allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, limits on the number and range of Iran’s missiles and an end to Iranian attacks on regional energy facilities. But they also offer removal of all sanctions on Iran, and U.S. support for electricity generation at Bushehr, Iran’s nuclear plant.

According to the Hindustan Times the Iranians called for, among other things:

• A non-aggression pact between the U.S. and Iran.
• Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Recognition of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights.
• Lifting of all U.S. sanctions.
• Discarding all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran, as well resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
• Payment of compensation to Iran for damages.
• Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
• End of the war on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Bargaining chips in a doubtful deal

Clearly, some demands by both sides are bargaining chips, to be dropped as a means to achieve other goals. Iran isn’t going to give up its nuclear materials, and the U.S. isn’t going to withdraw all its forces from the region.

Trump could well agree on lifting sanctions and on ending the war in Lebanon. He might accept continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, because he has no way to change it.

But the Iran War and this ceasefire amount to a disastrous failure for the U.S. As American historian and professor Phillips O’Brien has written, “This is complete U.S. strategic failure.” Trump and his government may tout it as a victory, but no one else will.

Moreover, it’s hard to see how Iran could secure guarantees that Trump would honour his commitments. After all, he has twice interrupted negotiations with attacks on Iran — once in June when Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated” and again on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched the present war, which is a blatant violation of the UN Charter and the U.S. Constitution.

Meanwhile, Israel says the ceasefire doesn’t apply to its campaign in Lebanon and has continued its attacks on Beirut and other parts of Lebanon.

So Trump must pretend to have won a great victory, and when he finds no one believes it, he will resume the war until he can claim another pretend victory.

That is, if Trump is allowed to remain president.

The art of double-dealing

In his second term so far, Trump has alienated his allies with tariffs, insults, flirtation with Russia’s Putin and Hungary’s Orbán and his violent anti-immigrant policies. His threat to kill Iranian civilization, and then to step back from the brink, was only a more dramatic version of his normal international deal-making.

The rest of the world has no reason to expect that he’ll “chicken out”; he doesn’t chicken out because he doesn’t bargain in good faith. The middle powers like Canada, Britain and Japan have no reason to think he’ll honour any trade deal he makes with them. They therefore have no reason to negotiate with him, except perhaps to buy some time.

And the Americans themselves should demand Trump’s immediate ouster, preferably by impeachment followed by a criminal trial. He has repeatedly broken countless American laws, committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, and brought the United States of America into disrepute. Better to get rid of him and then set to work on regaining the trust and respect he has viciously squandered.