Why Join Danielle Smith’s ‘Alberta Next’ Road Show?

With the word “annexation” being tossed around so much these days thanks to Donald Trump, I have to ask: can you annex a person, or, more accurately, a person’s credibility?

That thought popped to mind when I learned that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith had persuaded the well-respected and scrupulously non-partisan University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe to join her “Alberta Next” panel — the government’s controversial road show that will tour the province over the summer to hear what issues are on the minds of Albertans.

The panel’s objectives might look innocent on paper, but it’s part of Smith’s never-ending cynical agenda to inflame public opinion against the federal government ahead of a series of referendum questions next year that will no doubt include one on separation.

It is worth pointing out that even though Tombe might not be a household name to many Albertans, in political circles he is something of a superstar noted for his cool-headed and fair-minded analysis. The panel might have 15 members but it was Tombe’s name that prompted questions about his participation.

Not only does Tombe write analysis columns for CBC and the Hub, he pops up regularly on TV and radio to discuss Alberta’s economic picture.

Over time he has argued in favour of an Alberta sales tax, against a federal emissions cap, in favour of a consumer carbon tax and against Alberta’s overreliance on volatile oil and gas prices. He is no partisan hack on any issue.

He is the go-to expert for journalists trying to untangle the provincial government’s tenuous relationship between economic fantasy and reality. When Smith declared in 2023 that Alberta deserved $334 billion from the Canada Pension Plan if it decided to set up an Alberta pension plan, it was Tombe who soundly undermined that fiction by saying the province might get somewhere around $135 billion — a number later supported by Canada’s chief actuary.

Priming the misinformation pump

When Smith announced the panel’s members last week, she dutifully insisted she would not prejudge the panel’s work — but then happily primed the anti-Liberal pump by declaring, among other things: “For the last 10 years, Ottawa, led by successive Liberal governments, propped up by their NDP allies, have attacked our economy and taken direct aim at Alberta's core industries.”

That statement is demonstrably false considering the federal Liberal government spent $34 billion of public money buying and expanding the Trans Mountain pipeline to get more of Alberta’s oil to the West Coast for shipment overseas.

The anti-Liberal misinformation continues in a government online survey where it asks loaded questions, such as “What potential benefit do you like most about Alberta opting to leave the CPP and create its own Pension Plan?” Respondents are given four possible preloaded answers that all support an Alberta pension plan.

Tombe acknowledges the government survey is nothing but a “push poll” designed to give Smith the answers she wants. And he said he had nothing to do with the government’s survey questions, including one that raises the possibility of withholding social services from immigrants who are not approved by the province.

Panel members might vigorously defend their independence, but keep in mind Smith is also chair of the panel.

‘Maybe that’s naive’

So, why would Tombe agree to be part of what appears to be such a cynical process? He is not being paid, though the government is covering any expenses.

“I do find it quite interesting to engage in policy ideas and development and brainstorming in general,” said Tombe in an interview with The Tyee. “There's almost nothing that's unambiguously good or bad. And so as long as the information around what the benefits and costs of different ideas are, then that's helpful information for Albertans to evaluate things.”

As for Smith herself, the motivation for setting up the panel isn’t a mystery.

She is afraid of her fringe right-wing base that embraces, or at least flirts with, the notion of separation. These are the United Conservative Party supporters whom Jason Kenney labelled “lunatics” right before they deposed him as UCP leader (and premier) in 2022 and helped install Smith.

Another respected voice in Alberta politics, Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid, puts it this way: “There’s little chance of separatists winning provincial ridings in the next election, and no hope whatsoever of taking over the government. But that’s not the problem for today’s UCP. It’s the dread that any percentage of the popular vote might slip away to another party on the right.”

As if on cue, on Wednesday two MLAs booted from the UCP caucus announced they want to resurrect the old Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta to take on the Smith government.

Smith is inflaming anger at the federal Liberal government to keep from getting burned by her own political arsonists at home. And she is no doubt happy to use the Alberta Next panel, and the credibility of its members, to provide cover for her ambitions.

“I'll certainly be steering clear of the politics,” said Tombe. But then he added, “Maybe that's naive for me to think that that's possible.”