Why Are People Cheering Alberta's Climate Plan?

I had to do a bit of a personal check in as I watched Alberta's new climate plan being paraded before the public earlier this month. I found some aspects of the plan downright disturbing, but a lot of the quick-out-the-gate commentary talked up how great it was. Not sure if I was just nitpicking, I held my tongue.

But now, after seeing how the plan was debuted in Paris and framed in the media, I think there's need for an honest talk about what just happened in Alberta. I'm afraid that once you strip off the accessories, Alberta's plan is just a naked grasp at social license for new pipelines -- and those pipelines remain as big a threat to our future as ever.

When the Orange Wave broke over Alberta, I felt a surge of optimism. However, just as President Obama failed to bring transformative change to the banking sector in the U.S. during a time of economic crisis and opportunity, NDP Premier Rachel Notley has failed to seize her opportunity for transformative change in the Alberta energy sector. In fact, her government seems to have dug in to support the status quo.

Below, my take on some of the highlights of the Alberta climate plan, and why it doesn't justify a stand down in the fossil fuel export fight.

Ending coal fired power by 2030

Alberta's climate plan calls for an end to coal fired power, a great move with widespread public support. Two thirds of the province's coal plants would have shut down by 2030 under rules put in place by Stephen Harper, and by closing the rest Notley has hastened the end of the dirtiest form of electricity production in the province.

On the downside, the premier is considering compensation to utilities that currently burn coal. Given coal's long status as climate enemy number one, any utility building coal fired plants in recent years must have known it was placing a risky bet -- unless it counted on a bailout if government got serious about climate change. Rather than rewarding such reckless behaviour, the premier should invest in energy retrofits, conservation and renewables, and in helping coal mining communities transition to a new future. We'll also need to watch out for any moves by Alberta to subsidize the export of their stranded thermal coal reserves to foreign markets.

Upping the ante on renewables -- somewhat

To fill the gap created by killing coal, Alberta's climate plan calls for renewables to generate "up to" 30 per cent of the province's electricity by 2030, with most of the remaining gap filled by burning natural gas. It's an underwhelming goal.

I remember being awed by a wind farm near Pincher Creek the first time I drove across the country in the early '80s. It seemed like the future, as did Calgary's decision to run its light rail system on wind power. Alberta has huge wind and solar potential. It had an early start in the field, and it should be a leader in the transition to a renewable energy future. Ending coal power gets Alberta out of the 19th century, but continued reliance on natural gas only brings the province into the last one. Come on Premier Notley, inspire the rest of us!

Carbon Tax: harder better faster stronger, please

It's great that Alberta is getting serious about carbon pricing, and let's hope it launches a race to the top across the country, because that price needs to ramp up quickly to a level high enough to really influence behaviour and long-term decision making. See for example the ramp up the B.C. climate team has recommended for that province's tax.

The details are still being sorted out on this aspect of Alberta's plan, and questions about exemptions, loopholes and subsidies to Big Oil remain unanswered. For an overview of these issues check out recent articles and tweets by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.

Unfair rise in tarsands emissions

Currently at about 70 million tonnes per year, the plan anticipates emissions from the tarsands to increase to 100 million tonnes/year by 2020 -- a 43 per cent jump! No wonder the tarsands majors were applauding -- the announced "cap" on emissions protects every plant in operation now, and allows ones currently under construction to go forward. Any reductions obtained in the plan from the carbon tax, renewables, controlling methane leaks and cutting coal are more than offset by this backwards move.

If emissions continue to rise in Alberta the rest of the country will have to make disproportionate cuts in emissions to help keep the global average temperature increase to just 1.5 C, a goal that Canada just endorsed at the climate talks in Paris.

The 1.5 degree ceiling will be incredibly hard to meet, but it would give island nations a chance at survival and help hundreds of millions avoid suffering. If Canada's contribution to this goal isn't to be yet another aspirational target that is completely unmoored from reality, Alberta's tarsands can't continue to grow.

It's worth noting that oil patch emissions referenced in the Alberta climate plan are only those generated by digging up and processing the tarsands; the resulting bitumen still contains an enormous amount of carbon that would be released when it is exported, refined and burned.

So when Rachel Notley talks up her plan as the start of a new era of environmentally responsible and sustainable tarsands production, she's really asking permission to both increase the export of carbon pollution and to grow emissions here at home. Rather than applauding her plan we need to call it what it is: a missed chance to boldly transition away from the petro-economy in Alberta and start Canada down the path of serious emission reductions.

Notley was elected in a time of crisis and great opportunity, and she blinked. Those of us willing to stare the climate challenge in the face still have work to do. Rhetorical or otherwise, front line climate defenders shouldn't dismantle the barricades just yet.