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Opinion
Politics

We're (Not) Number One!

How gov't made BC look like we lead job creation when, ahem, we don't.

David Schreck 12 Sep 2012TheTyee.ca

David Schreck is a political analyst and former NDP MLA who publishes the website Strategic Thoughts, where a version of this article first appeared.
Annual BC job growth rate
Source: Statistics Canada.

Following Statistics Canada's release of the August Labour Force Survey (LFS) figures, jobs Minister Pat Bell issued an incorrectly titled news release, promoting B.C. from third to first spot in Aug. 2011 to Aug. 2012 job creation. His claim was promptly spread through Twitter by many BC Liberal MLAs and their supporters.

The trick Bell used was to rank provincial job growth by absolute numbers rather than by percentage growth, hence with its larger population B.C. would almost always outrank the smaller provinces. When percentage job growth is considered B.C.'s 2.3 per cent job growth between Aug. 2011 and Aug. 2012 is less than Saskatchewan's 3.6 per cent or Newfoundland and Labrador's 3.1 per cent.

You would think that a government which has lost trust and credibility wouldn't try to play fast and loose with the economic figures.

Good, not great

The graph displayed at the top of this article shows 35 years of B.C. job growth measured as the percentage change in any month relative to the same month in the previous year.

You can see several recessions when there were job loses; 1983 being the most severe. You can also see a long term downward trend in job growth.

Growth of 2.3 per cent is good but it is nothing spectacular in historical terms. It is definitely not evidence that B.C.'s jobs plan is working; rather it is what we would expect as normal growth. Statistics Canada recently made access to its socialeconomic database (CANSIM) free. Click here and you can see the labour force survey estimates. Click on the add/remove tab at the top and you can select British Columbia, employment, both sexes, 15 years and over, seasonally adjusted; or you can select any other combination of data that interests you.

Most importantly, you can use CANSIM to fact-check government news releases. [Tyee]

Read more: Politics

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