Rachel Notley: ‘They Were Comfortable Lying’

It would be an understatement to say 2023 has not been kind to Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley. She began the year as the odds-on favourite to win May’s provincial election.

Instead, here she is at year’s end in an interview with The Tyee explaining what went wrong. Notley lost, not to someone she would consider a worthy foe but to Danielle Smith, a divisive politician with a history of spouting crackpot ideas who once described herself as “unelectable.”

Notley blames the loss on Smith and the United Conservative Party for lying and bribing their way through the election.

“They wrote a billion dollars' worth of cheques to Albertans between February and April and they spent $10 million telling Albertans that they had written them a billion dollars' worth of cheques. That’s when some of the polling showed things started to move [in favour of the UCP],” said Notley.

“They essentially were comfortable lying to Albertans about what they were promising them,” she added. “On Day 1, Danielle Smith promised Albertans a very generous tax cut.”

That tax break for Albertans making under $60,000 never materialized, a realization that is making headlines right now in Alberta as people wonder what happened to the promise. Turns out a little bit of the cut might come in next year’s provincial budget. Smith says the tax break will be “phased” in over the course of her mandate until 2027, a point she somehow neglected to clarify when making the promise.

Notley also pointed to the wildfires that ravaged swaths of Alberta, making campaigning there impossible, and complained Smith’s handlers kept her in a journalist-free bubble for most of the time, limiting her exposure to pesky questions.

Smith also refused to talk about her intent to pursue an Alberta pension plan while slamming the NDP for fear-mongering by raising the issue.

A corporate tax misstep?

But did the NDP undermine its own chances by promising to raise corporate taxes from eight per cent to 11 per cent? At the time, Notley stressed that Alberta still had the lowest corporate tax rate in the country. The UCP, though, had a better grasp of political math and rhetorically turned what was a three percentage point increase into a 38 per cent hike. It became an easy target to hit.

But Notley still insists her tax-hike promise did not make a dent in the campaign. She said the NDP was climbing in the polls near the end and, in fact, “if we’d had a bit more time in the campaign, we might have caught up.”

If this sounds like rationalizing a loss, well, that’s because it is. And it’s understandable.

Notley carried a huge weight into the campaign with the hopes and expectations of progressive Albertans who longed for a return of the NDP to power — and who could see Smith on the verge of toppling herself and the right-wing UCP over a cliff.

No exit date

To lose to someone as flawed as Smith needs some explaining with a dollop of rationalization.

But it cannot keep the elephant from the room. These days whenever Notley speaks with journalists there’s not just an elephant in the room, there’s an entire herd dancing in the background.

The question is not whether Notley will step down as NDP leader but when.

It’s important to point out nobody in the NDP caucus is trying to push her out the door. She is popular with Albertans and there are no knives being sharpened à la Jason Kenney, whose last days as premier were reminiscent of Julius Caesar’s trip to the Senate on March 15.

But after winning the 2015 election, Notley lost the subsequent two. And there are ambitious successors in the wings lacing up the running shoes if not sharpening any blades.

Notley answered the inevitable question about her future with wry humour and a verbal salad.

“It’s a hypothetical conversation for something that may or may not happen after I make a decision which I have not yet communicated to you,” she said, and then laughed heartily.

Will she at least stay on as leader through the spring sitting of the legislature?

“Yeah, yeah, sure,” she said, but it’s difficult to say whether that’s a slip of the tongue or a tongue planted firmly in cheek. “The bottom line is that I will let you know once I’ve made my decision.”

It makes sense for Notley, an experienced, skilful and popular politician, to stick around to steer her largely neophyte caucus through the first year after an election. For one, this is the largest official Opposition in Alberta’s history, with 38 MLAs.

For another, the NDP is scurrying to respond to Smith’s whirlwind of activity. Smith has invoked her controversial Alberta Sovereignty Act to fight the yet to be finalized federal Clean Electricity Regulations, has started a major 18-month teardown of the health-care system and seems determined to push ahead with an Alberta pension plan by withdrawing from the Canada Pension Plan despite public opposition.

‘Our civil discourse’ as journalism declines

When I asked Notley last July what keeps her on the job, she pointed to what she sees as Smith’s dangerous plans for the province.

“There are so many things that play into my mind and of course the defence of the province that I love is always something that is featured in my deliberations on all these things,” said Notley at the time.

You can see why she’d be reluctant to leave when Smith is just beginning to flex her post-election muscles.

“We have an economy in Alberta that is very much still based on oil and gas at a time when the world is confronting climate change,” said Notley.

“And we also have the impact of climate change in Alberta. That, I think, is going to be felt here in a way that people haven't really got their head around. And so those things, I think, are challenging for any government. And yet we have a leader who is not a fan of science and is not a fan of government. And so is very likely to abdicate the kind of work that needs to be done to help Albertans prepare for these challenges.”

Adding to Notley’s frustration is the whittling down of journalism in Alberta — and across the country — where overstretched newsrooms are cutting back resources and laying off reporters. Too often reporters simply don’t have the time to delve into government policies and controversies.

“The quality of our civil discourse is deteriorating a lot, and I don’t just mean people being mean to each other. I mean people being aware of what’s going on and having a common set of facts that we can rely on to drive our civic debate.”

Gearing up to win next time

Looking forward, Notley said the NDP’s goal in 2024 is to solidify the party’s gains where they not only won every seat in Edmonton but 14 of the 26 seats in Calgary. And branch out into rural areas, where they did better than usual in some ridings but still fell behind the UCP.

“We’re going to focus on reinforcing the connection between some of our new MLAs and their constituents, and we’re going to work on going into those areas that we came very close to winning and other areas where we have enjoyed significant growth.”

Notley calls it “bread-and-butter politics” and old-fashioned hard work.

But the question remains: Will Notley be there to lead the work?