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POLL: Ipsos latest puts NDP lead at 10 points

A week full of election polls has ended with a survey from Ipsos Reid that indicates the NDP holding a 10-point lead.

Earlier this week, various pollsters gave the NDP leads ranging between 22 percentage points and four points.

The Ipsos poll, conducted online for Global BC, indicates the NDP's lead has been cut in half since the last Ipsos poll, taken March 8-12, which put the New Democrats out ahead by 19 points.

The new Ipsos poll found 45 per cent support for the New Democrats among decided voters, down three points from the last Ipsos poll. The governing BC Liberals are at 35 per cent, up six points from the start of the campaign.

The BC Conservatives are at seven per cent, down four points, and the Green party is at 10 per cent, up one point. Other parties, including independents, were at three per cent.

The poll was released a day after three pollsters weighed in on the May 14 campaign. Forum Research suggested the New Democrats lead is four points, Insights West suggested the NDP leads by eight points and Angus Reid suggested a seven-point gap.

In the Ipsos poll, 13 per cent of respondents said they were undecided or stated no preference.

Among decided voters, few –- 15 per cent –- said they think they might change their mind by election day.

Premier Christy Clark still trails NDP leader Adrian Dix on the question of who would make the best premier, but she has jumped a significant eight points since the campaign began. Clark was named by 31 per cent as best premier, compared to 34 per cent who named Dix. Dix's best premier rating was stable, dropping two points since the campaign began.

The Ipsos poll was conducted among 1,000 adult British Columbians chosen from an online panel. Interviews were conducted between Tuesday, April 30 and Thursday, May 2.

Ipsos uses credibility intervals rather than standard margins of error and states "the poll is accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points had all British Columbia adults been surveyed." For more on these issues, see this story and this story.

Polling for B.C. election 2013 as of May 3, 2013
Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan - 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 22-21 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 28 48 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5
Insights West 26-31 Mar 28 45 10 15 2 Online 855 3.4
Ekos 3-10 Apr 27.3 39.3 13.4 16.2 3.8 IVR* 793 3.5
Angus Reid 12-13 Apr 28 45 12 13 3 Online 804 3.5
Ipsos 11-14 Apr 29 48 11 9 3 Online 800 3.5
Angus Reid 24-25 Apr 31 45 11 10 3 Online 812 3.5
Justason 15-23 Apr 27 49 12 11 1 Phone-online 600 4
Abacus 23-26 Apr 33 43 9 12 3 Online 1,042 3.1
Forum 30 Apr 35 39 9 12 3 IVR* 1,055 3
Insights West 29 Apr-2 May 33 41 11 14 1 Online 855 3.4
Angus Reid 1-2 May 34 41 10 12 3 Online 808 3.5
Ipsos 30 Apr-2 May 35 45 7 10 3 Online 1,000 3.5

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett's previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him.

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