Greens' Federal Rise a B.C. NDP Surprise

The latest Ipsos poll of federal voting preferences revealed that the Liberals are in freefall. It also contains this nugget: "In British Columbia the Liberals lead 30 percent to the Conservatives at 27 percent, the NDP at 25 percent and the Green Party at 13 percent."

No need for a calculator: combined NDP and Green strength in British Columbia is significantly greater than either Liberal or Conservative party support. Right now the NDP holds two federal seats in B.C. the Greens none. The NDP had nominated candidates in every federal riding in the province (although it will have to replace Svend Robinson, who suddenly departed federal politics). The Greens, according to Canada 2004, have nominated just two.

Last time out, the NDP won their two seats while polling an average of 11.4 percent in the province. Candidates for other parties, mainly Greens, took about four percent.

The Ipsos poll indicates the NDP has more than doubled its popular support. But this may not translate into many more seats if the Green party fields candidates in NDP winnable seats. Their polled support has more than tripled.

Greens could undermine NDP

Polls are not elections. There is no question it is easier to answer "Green" in a phone call than to vote Green on election day. But it is quite possible that the Green popular vote in British Columbia will top 10 percent. But, unless that vote is concentrated, the Greens will still not elect a member.

If the NDP continues to attract disaffected Liberals, its candidates in Vancouver Centre, Skeena, Port Moody Westwood, Nanaimo Cowichan, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, and Burnaby-New Westminster all have a shot at winning a seat. The polling numbers may, in fact, underestimate NDP election day strength simply because, in British Columbia, the David Orchard red Tory side of the PC party will have no where to go come election day.

Looking at the numbers, the NDP has a good chance at six new seats. That chance would be enhanced if the Green Party did not run candidates in those ridings.

Is there room for a deal?

Saanich-Gulf Islands a hot spot

NDP leader Jack Layton has dismissed the prospect in the past, yet there may well be. In Saanich-Gulf Islands the Greens ran nearly even with the NDP in the last election. In that vote (and I am using redistributed numbers here), the Alliance won the riding with 24,800 votes, the Liberals came second with 18,731, then the PCs polled 5,994, the NDP got 4,644 and the "others" which were mainly Green hit 3,616.

Were the NDP to withdraw from the Saanich-Gulf Islands race and throw its weight behind the Green candidate, there is an outside we'd have the first Green elected to the Parliament of Canada.

The quid pro quo would be that the Greens not nominate candidates in any of the remain five ridings where the NDP has the chance to pick up a seat.

The remaining ridings would be up for grabs with the NDP and Greens fighting it out.

Symbolism matters

Symbolically, the NDP working for a Green candidate in the Sannich-Gulf Island riding could attract many Green supporters to help elect NDP members in the other competitive ridings.

Having watched the Liberal Party roll up majority governments because the PCs and the Alliance could not agree to stop splitting the vote on the right, the left has the opportunity to take a different path.

Jay Currie is a Galiano writer whose writing and blog is at http://www.reviewing.blogspot.com/.