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When will the knives come out for Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi?
Historically New Democrats have been more tolerant of their leaders’ failings than Conservatives have been of theirs. Still, there’s a point at which something’s gotta give.
It’s easy to be forgiving when it’s a foregone conclusion that the only victory you’re likely to achieve come election night is a moral one.
You’d think the fact the NDP forms the Opposition with sufficient seats to be a credible “government in waiting” would change that calculation, at least a bit.
The poll for CBC released by Janet Brown Opinion Research Tuesday certainly suggests that, as has been said in this space on numerous occasions before, whatever else you can say about the predicament in which the NDP finds itself, its leader is simply not connecting with Alberta’s public.
The poll shows the United Conservative Party led by Danielle Smith continuing to hold its popularity with Alberta supporters, and the NDP under Nenshi slipping badly.
Worse from the NDP’s perspective, CBC’s Jennifer Keiller wrote, the new poll “suggests the UCP would likely win an even stronger majority than it boasts now, if an election were to be held today.”
Brown has a reputation as being the pollster with the best handle on what happens in Alberta — and whether or not that’s fully deserved, she certainly has a good track record of calling these things right. So it would be extremely foolish to deny that her conclusions are probably right this time too. Indeed, they ring true to anyone who has been observing the NDP flounder, and that includes a lot of NDP supporters.
Sooner or later someone has to ask if Nenshi is the person best suited for his job, given the policy disaster Smith’s government is wreaking on Alberta, especially in health care — which Alberta voters don’t approve of, other polling suggests.
As I wrote on April 14, “if Albertans don’t like what the UCP is doing but still favour Ms. Smith over Mr. Nenshi by a significant margin, the obvious conclusion is that the biggest problem faced by the NDP right now is its leader.”
That seems even more obvious now in light of these poll results. Given the plans the UCP has for Alberta — up to and including the possibility of separation from Canada — you have to think they’ll call an early election as fast as they can while they’re still on a roll and sufficient numbers of Albertans are still fooled by Smith’s sovereign-Alberta-in-a-united-Canada schtick.
If you want more evidence, the CBC story goes on to say, “perhaps more remarkably, the most popular political leader in the province appears to be a Liberal.” To wit: Prime Minister Mark Carney.
There’s nothing remarkable about this, of course. Plenty of Albertans want to support an effective Canadian leader and, say what you will about his very conservative policy preferences, Carney is that. No one can credibly claim that Carney’s policy inclination is likely to be bad for the fossil fuel industry, although some Alberta politicians will surely try.
A lot of Albertans have obviously concluded that Carney is strong enough a leader that we get along with a dose of Rouge à Ottawa, Bleu à Québec out here in Wild Rose Country.
This may be a dangerous assumption, but it’s clear that Nenshi is absolutely failing to deliver the message that it might be — probably because for some reason he’s not even trying.
As some Alberta Einstein has surely realized, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Nenshi obviously isn’t going to change. Maybe the Opposition needs to. It would be interesting to know what Rakhi Pancholi, the NDP’s deputy leader, is thinking about these days. ![[Tyee]](/design-article.thetyee.ca/ui/img/yellowblob.png){kind=small}
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