Please Advise! Who’s Gonna Win? And What’s This about Rihanna?

[Editor’s note: Steve Burgess is an accredited spin doctor with a PhD in Centrifugal Rhetoric from the University of SASE, situated on the lovely campus of PO Box 7650, Cayman Islands. In this space he dispenses PR advice to the rich and famous, the troubled and well heeled, the wealthy and gullible.]

Dear Dr. Steve,

I have been reading your predictions and watching the election coverage, and I can’t help noticing that you seem to be wrong about everything. Even someone who is guessing ought to get lucky once in a while, but not you. Are you ever right?

Signed,

Observer

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Dear Fool,

Please, girlfriend. Dr. Steve does not spread his pearls before swine. The fact is, Dr. Steve saw it all coming. The Justin Trudeau blackface scandal, the sketchy Andrew Scheer insurance career, the Jagmeet Singh boomlet — none of it was news to the all-seeing doctor. But such perspicacious forecasting is not for the hoi polloi. Dr. Steve reserves his best information for the clients who fund his lavish lifestyle and esoteric pursuits.

But while the sorry likes of you are not privy to the entire informational iceberg, Dr. Steve is willing to toss you a few prophetic cubes, and perhaps a bucket or two of augural shavings. As the campaign heads into the home stretch, here is one observation offered up free of charge: the polls are looking pretty close. You’re welcome. And by all means help yourself to our complimentary breadsticks.

Campaign 2019 has seen the usual odd incidents. One of the oddest: the sort-of expulsion of Burnaby Conservative candidate Heather Leung. Leung was dumped by her party after quotes emerged in which she accused gay people of “recruiting” children. But Leung is still on the ballot as a Conservative, and the party name is still on her signs. Dr. Steve wonders with hypothetical relish: suppose Leung won her riding, and the national returns produced a near-dead heat with the Conservatives and Liberals even or, say, the Conservatives trailing by a seat? Would Leung’s expulsion from the Conservative party be magically forgotten? Dr. Steve has plenty of popcorn ready just in case

So far though, the NDP’s Singh has been the story of the campaign. And why not? The prospect of Minister of Culture Rihanna has to be tantalizing.

It’s also confirmation of a perverse political truth: lowering expectations out of the gate, as Singh did with frequent stumbles in the early days of his leadership, can pay dividends when the campaign begins in earnest. Singh has won people over with charm and sincerity. Last time around, it was cover boy Justin who charmed the country. But Trudeau’s appeal has always been of the superstar variety, his campaign brought to you by the letters “G” and “Q.” He risks coming off as a performer. Singh does not seem slick enough to be accused of putting on an act. He appears to lack the skill to be an effective phony. Thus his early stumbles may be helping him, not just by lowering expectations but also by making his personal charm more believable.

Still, Singh should ask Elizabeth May what it means to poll ahead of your party. According to the CBC leadership poll tracker, May’s approval rating dwarfs those of all the other leaders. Yet she has not yet brought the party with her — she floats high above her Green compatriots like an eco-friendly zeppelin. Singh comes closest to matching May’s approval rating, but he too has left his party’s poll numbers far behind. Now that the Bloc Québécois has awakened from its zombie slumber and appears ready to wipe out the NDP’s remaining Quebec beachhead, Singh’s campaign may be a rearguard action to hang onto a meaningful presence in Parliament.

As for Trudeau, every night he must surely sacrifice to the gods of hair care in gratitude for the presence of Scheer. Trudeau’s approval rating is so deep underwater it could double as the secret lair of a Bond villain. But Scheer is right down there beside him with his scuba gear and spear gun. You’d think a guy like Scheer would have the common touch — after all, he has an uncanny ability to make any suit, no matter how stylish, look like a 2-for-1 special from Moore’s. Instead, Scheer just seems to represent a different brand of insincerity. Trudeau may come off as shallow and slick, but Scheer looks shifty and devious. How many voters upset over blackface and SNC-Lavalin are likely to see their new shining hope in the shape of Scheer?

Then again, the voter is a strange and unknowable beast for whom the rules of logic are as highway signs to a crow. At the moment, this election seems too close to call. But not for the canny Dr. Steve. Close though the polls may be, Dr. Steve is nonetheless willing to make a firm prediction, a confident forecast, right down to the exact seat totals.

What are you looking at, peasant? Dr. Steve isn’t spilling that kind of gold for the likes of you. Wait in line with the plebs until Oct 21.