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Analysis
BC Election 2024
BC Politics

NDP Edges Closer to Majority, but BC’s Election Remains Undecided

Late ballots may flip a Surrey riding. The final result should be known today.

Paul Willcocks 28 Oct 2024The Tyee

Paul Willcocks is a senior editor at The Tyee.

The BC NDP was close to winning the right to form a majority government Sunday night by the narrowest of margins.

But the result was still unclear, with final results depending on a count of absentee ballots today.

On election night, the count gave the NDP 46 seats, the Conservatives 45 and the Greens two. A party needs 47 seats to form a majority government.

But Elections BC still had to count mail ballots that came in after advance polls closed or were dropped at a district electoral office or voting place. About 65,000 ballots had to be counted, according to Elections BC.

Those ballots have tilted in the NDP’s favour.

The two closest ridings won by the NDP were Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre, by margins of fewer than 100 votes, which guarantees a recount.

But the secondary ballot count increased the NDP lead to 106 in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and 178 in Surrey City Centre, margins that are unlikely to be changed in a recount.

The remaining close riding is Surrey-Guildford, where the Conservatives led by 102 votes on election night. Elections BC reported that lead had shrunk to 12 votes as late ballots were counted.

The New Democrats are now likely to hold the two close seats and, if the trend continues in Surrey-Guildford, win that riding to reach 47 seats and form a majority, and allow leader David Eby to form government.

That’s not likely to be determined until sometime Monday, when counts are complete.

The likely results are bad news for the Greens. If the NDP had ended up with 46 seats, the two elected Green MLAs and leader Sonia Furstenau, who was defeated, had a chance to negotiate some commitments in return for their support.

Not many, realistically. The thought of the Greens propping up a Conservative government led by John Rustad, who doesn’t think climate change is a problem, and with MLAs who have been openly racist and Islamophobic, is ludicrous. NDP Leader David Eby knows that, and as a result is unlikely to make major concessions.

The ugly news

Part of writing about the election results involved, for now, paying attention to X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

Which meant reading mindless claims of vote fraud, based on no evidence, and attacks on Elections BC.

How mindless?

Consider the post by National Post reporter and columnist Tristin Hopper.

“I'm seeing buzz on this platform that the B.C. election was hinky. I have no evidence for or against, but... man, once you see the norms health agencies will break to keep handing out puberty blockers or ‘safer supply,’ it twists your faith that such things don't happen in Canada.”

A person who says “I have no evidence but” is not to be taken seriously. Especially one who claims to be a journalist.

The facts are clear. Elections BC is an independent agency. The current chief electoral officer, Anton Boegman, started with the agency in 2004, after a career in the Royal Canadian Navy. He was appointed to the job in 2018 by a unanimous vote of the legislature — including Rustad.

The election workers are people from across the province who applied for the jobs and were committed to make the vote work.  [Tyee]

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