O’Toole Takes Conservative Helm after Gong Show Vote Count

“Good morning, I’m Erin O’Toole. I’m here to fight for you.”

It was second time lucky for O’Toole Sunday, as the former Harper cabinet minister and 2017 leadership candidate won the Conservative party’s top job on the third ballot.

In his brief acceptance speech, delivered around 1 a.m. after a problem-plagued ballot counting process, O’Toole was quick to beat the war drums, accusing Justin Trudeau of weakening Canada and promising to defeat him in the next election.

“The world still needs more Canada, it just needs less Justin Trudeau,” said O’Toole, a former corporate lawyer and MP for a southern Ontario riding since 2012.

Sounding like an echo from the Harper era, O’Toole charged that Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh were failing working families. Then, stealing a line from Trudeau himself, the new leader said he would earn back respect for Canada on the world stage.

In the celebrations following the announcement of O’Toole’s victory there was an outpouring of support for the new leader. There were lots of hugs and handshakes on stage, but not much evidence of social distancing or masks.

Several prominent Conservatives, including former prime minister Stephen Harper and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney tweeted out congratulations to the new leader. O’Toole kicked off his campaign in Alberta last January, and handily won the province.

Peter MacKay congratulated O’Toole and vowed to build the party with him. But the final ballot verdict — 57 per cent for O’Toole and 43 per cent for MacKay — was a crushing defeat for the Conservative party co-founder, who was considered the favourite to replace outgoing leader Andrew Scheer. MacKay lost Quebec to O’Toole, partly because of a very poor showing in the French language debate.

And a MacKay wave never really materialized in his native Maritime provinces or vote-rich Ontario, although his campaign raised the most money and he had national name recognition. The campaign’s early months revealed the political rust that had built up since MacKay decided not to run in the 2015 election.

The surprise of the night was the strong showing by political rookie Leslyn Lewis. Lewis, a lawyer and social conservative, won 21 per cent of the support on the first count and 30 per cent on the second before being dropped. She performed well across the country and is certain to be a key player as the party prepares for the next election.

In one of the most inept leadership conventions on record, the party missed newspaper and broadcast deadlines because it couldn’t properly open the envelopes that held the ballots — hardly building confidence in the Conservatives’ claim they can rebuild the Canadian economy.

In a race that had 269,000 eligible voters, 175,000 Conservatives cast their ballots on a ranked basis. But it took the party five hours longer than planned even to come up with a first ballot result. By the time the result was announced around 1 a.m., most people were not awake to hear O’Toole’s victory speech.

The enduring takeaway from MacKay’s poor showing is that the Conservatives are still very much the party of Harper. Lewis and fourth-place finisher Derek Sloan, who had 14-per-cent on the first ballot, are both stalwart social conservatives who did well in the West and in Ontario.

O’Toole also pitched himself as a social conservative and rode that narrative to victory. Their combined strength in the race ended any progressive remake of the Conservative party — a transformation which MacKay had come to represent.

MacKay had staked his candidacy on his belief the party was ready to modernize its platform, talking about a plan to fight climate change that went beyond merely rescinding the carbon tax.

He also made a point of saying that he was pro-choice and would march in Gay Pride events — something Harper and Scheer never did.

MacKay’s message was clear: there would be no “stinking albatrosses” around this leader’s neck. It was a message that was roundly rejected in a party which reaffirmed its commitment to Harper-era social conservatism.

Regardless of who ended up winning the leadership, the path ahead for the Conservatives was going to be difficult.

Despite his ethical follies and the shadow of scandal creeping over Justin Trudeau, the Liberals continue to be more popular than all other parties.

So the Tories will be coming from behind with a lot of baggage.

Earlier incarnations of the party were characterized by extreme social conservatism, a dubious commitment to democratic practices and transparency and an incessant war with media. Their much-touted Fair Elections Act, for example, was roundly dismissed as an attempt to suppress rather than encourage voting — exactly as Donald Trump is now doing in the United States.

Another difficulty for the Conservatives is the nature of their convention. Because of restrictions imposed by the pandemic, the event was hardly gripping TV. The on-again off-again race for the leader’s job never captured the public’s imagination. It was, in fact, a dreary bore.

The result? Instead of a bump in the polls, the Conservatives will get the Dead Convention Bounce from this virtual stinker. A stunning 47 per cent of respondents in the most recent Ipsos poll for Global News were not even aware the party was choosing a new leader.

O’Toole’s biggest test will come when he reveals his response to the Trudeau government’s handling of the pandemic. The Conservatives’ policies have always focused on the economy. Even in the age of global warming, Harper, for example, refused to regulate the energy industry.

If O’Toole attacks the prime minister for the massive deficit run up in the fight against COVID-19, it will expose him to the charge that conservatism still lacks compassion.

If he pushes too hard on restarting the economy, the Liberals will accuse the new Conservative leader of making the same mistake as Trump — assuming that the country can go back to business as usual while the virus is still abroad in the land. Damn the torpedos and full speed ahead is a dubious policy when battling a pandemic.

O’Toole may have been in the air force, but he never navigated more difficult terrain that what lies ahead — a one-on-one stare down with a prime minister who is a lot tougher than he looks.