Topic
Ten Tyee contributors weigh in on who scored, who bored, and that crime wave in Gibsons. Tell us your winner.
Cartoon by Greg Perry.
ON RADIO, IGNATIEFF CLEARLY WON
Mark Leiren-Young
Ever since America's Nixon-Kennedy debates where the radio listeners all thought Nixon knocked out Kennedy, but all the TV viewers saw was the shining smile of Camelot making the grumpy old man sweat like he was being interrogated by the Gestapo, political debates have been all about optics. I gather from the twitterverse that the ReformaTory™ leader looked directly at the camera and ignored his opponents the way he does questions from the media after he hits his five-a-day limit. What I don't know is whether The-Man-Who-Would-be-Trudeau ™ spent the whole debate staring at his shoelaces because, if he didn't, it sure sounded like Mikey was the big winner (other than mediator Steve Paikin who clearly enjoyed telling everyone to behave).
The moment that came off on CBC radio as genuinely passionate -- no matter how well-scripted and over-rehearsed it was, "This is not bickering Mr. Harper, this is democracy." Jack's attempt to create a Gordon Wilson moment after that and act like Mike and Steve were just bickering was one of the rare moments when he didn't sound like he deserved a seat at the grown-ups table. Jack knows the difference between bickering and debate and pretended he didn't, so he could use his pre-scripted line, which was a shame because some of his genuinely off-the-cuff zingers actually zung.
Meanwhile, the Blochead sounded indifferent to the proceedings except when he revelled in stating that both Jack and Steve were suffering from selective memory issues over their 2004 coalition, or was it a cooperation agreement, or was it a memo, or was it just their hockey pool? Only Gilles seemed to remember.
As Steve tries to rewrite the rules of Parliamentary democracy to suit his demographics, or is that demogogics, to "whoever has the most seats wins," it became apparent that the ReformaTories are betting that as long as taxes aren't raised, Canadian voters won't care if parliament is turned into a hospital overflow ward when the Ottawa Tim Horton's fills up. Clearly the key players in this election are incompetent Social Studies and History teachers who failed to explain parliamentary democracy to future voters, nevermind any party leader other than the guy who wants to leave the country. He also seems to be banking on the idea that Canadians find elections boring since he kept referring to this one as "unnecessary." Perhaps his pitch on the French debate could be, "vote for me and you'll never have to vote again."
Of course, for all I know Mikey was wearing Groucho glasses, Jack was wearing a Leafs jersey, Gilles was mooning Paikin and Steve H. was sweating like Nixon in a Finnish sauna -- in which case I'm really looking forward to the instant replays.
Mark Leiren-Young is a regular contributor to The Tyee and an author and filmmaker.
ON TV, IGNATIEFF'S BROWS HELPED HARPER WIN
David Beers
If televised debates are theatre, Stephen Harper inhabited the role he wanted, right down to the staging (positioned away from the harassing chorus of three), gestures (hands presented upturned, signaling welcoming inclusion), tone (measured calm juuuuuust verging on patronizing exasperation), and straight-faced delivery of a scripted fantasy (Trouble maker? Who me? I'm just a nice guy wishing I could get back to working together in that place I revere, the Parliament).
Ignatieff played right into how the Cons want to cast him -- humourless, eyes blacked out by shadow casting brows, and outraged that somehow not he but Steve gets to be PM (you haven't EARNED it! he accused more than once).
Duceppe irritated at every chance by reminding that he could care less about those of us who don't live in Quebec. Layton gets the prize for irritating the least.
Harper, though, benefitted most in this debate by playing the patient teacher -- like when he explained to the befuddled audience that whoever wins an election gets to be PM, while over there, across the stage, the other three argued over who was in which coalition which time, and whether they'd go do it again, and with whom, if and when they lose.
David Beers is editor of The Tyee.
DUCEPPE WON, BUT ALL MISSED A BIG ISSUE
Shannon Rupp
If delivering humiliating quips is the measure of a win then you could call this leadership debate the Jack and Gilles show.
Jack Layton drew guffaws from the studio audience when he noted that he had no idea why Stephen Harper was planning to build more prisons when the crooks seem so comfortable in the Senate.
From the moment Gilles Duceppe kicked-off the debate by zinging Harper with the wry observation that the Prime Minister was "answering a citizen's question for the first time in the campaign" it was clear that this was Harper's event to lose. And he did.
While Harper stayed on message -- we have the best economy in the world, this is an unnecessary election -- the Bubble Boy strategy that pundits have been noting for weeks was on display for the whole country to see. His creepy, icy demeanor was made worse by his choice to talk directly to the camera and avoid engaging with the other leaders.
By contrast, Michael Ignatieff, the least polished performer of the quartet, looked human. He stumbled occasionally but he also sounded, dare I say it, smart. Where Iggy was earnest, looking like a guy willing to grapple with difficult issues, Harper was robot, delivering the message track over and over again.
Ignatieff held Harper to account, particularly on the Prime Minister's refusal to accept that he has an obligation to answer the House truthfully and debate and defend his actions. Harper kept calling the debate "bickering" leaving the Green's Elizabeth May to tweet that he doesn't understand Parliamentary democracy.
Ignatieff and Duceppe stopped just short calling Harper a liar, but there's no doubt they were saying that. They challenged Harper on the leaked Auditor General's report -- even forcing him to say that he wants to see the final version released immediately – and Duceppe nailed him on his scheme to organize the opposition into a coalition with himself as PM when the previous Liberal government was in power.
Throughout the two hours, viewers were treated to the disturbing sight of Harper lying to our faces. It's one thing to read reporters' copy saying that Harper lies, but it was chilling to see those dead eyes facing the camera as he denied the truth.
But all the leaders failed -- and the lack of a woman's perspective became obvious -- when Canada's foreign policy was discussed and Harper had the audacity to raise his track record on foreign aid for child and maternal health, which includes denying funding for abortions. All three men were silent on Harper’s attack on women's rights to reproductive health.
While there's no doubt Harper was the loser, the only leader with some claim to winning was Duceppe. He's a quick-witted pit bull. And even when he's criticizing his competitors for not recognizing Quebec as a nation, I kept thinking that if he wants to give B.C. this kind of representation in Ottawa, I'll vote Bloc.
Shannon Rupp is a contributing editor to The Tyee.
JACK LAYTON, HANDS DOWN
Crawford Kilian
The clear winner: Jack Layton. He made his points clearly, but more importantly, his body language expressed confidence. His grin conveyed an amused scorn for his opponents' positions.
The clear loser: Stephen Harper. In fairness, he was the victim of the worst makeup job since JFK beat Nixon in the 1960 US presidential debate. But his body language was defensive, his tone was almost always a patient, patronizing whine, and his pained smirk exposed a man who is a stranger to joy. He never went on the offensive.
Gilles Duceppe, with nothing to lose, was the most relaxed, and in the early stages he mugged shamelessly as he waited to go for Harper's throat. He also had the most fun reminding Harper of their 2004 hotel tryst with Layton, where Harper hoped to form a coalition with himself as PM.
In third place: Michael Ignatieff, who could be animated at times and made some strong points about the Conservatives' contempt not just for Parliament but for the Canadian people. But Layton zinged him with his 70 per cent absenteeism.
Best one-liner of the night: Layton. "I don't why we’re talking about prisons when the crooks are so happy in the Senate."
Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
JACK LAYTON, DOWN WITH 'BLING'
Steve Burgess
Micro-communities -- candidates play to them. Jack Layton just got elected Prime Minister of Twitter for using the phrase "hashtag fail."
Politics can be pretty simple sometimes.
To be fair not all tweeters liked it. But folks love shout-outs and if you followed the debates on Twitter you'd think "hashtag fail' was the key issue. On the other hand, the candidates missed a golden opportunity when a taped question came from a guy in a Canucks shirt.
Why not make a quick political calculation, cut Quebec loose and say, "My friends, there is no doubt where Canada's best hope for a Cup can be found."
Layton had the most talked about lines for both good and ill. The "ill" part came when he said "bling." And I don't mean Jack was "illin'." Word.
But he actually got a laugh in the room when he said more prisons are not needed when "crooks seem so happy in the Senate." Zing!
Most of all it was a competition of strategies. Ignatieff might as well have been wearing pink to back up his theme: Harper is a bully.
If you were betting on use of the phrase "Mr. Harper shuts down whatever he can't control," I hope you put the rent on "over."
Harper's strategy was exemplified by his eyes -- look straight at the camera, not your insignificant opponents.
Harper had his moments, particularly taking on Duceppe on the issue of English-speaking immigrants. But many will find his I'm-not-looking-at-you style off-putting. In fact I'd estimate the percentage of Tyee readers who hold that opinion to round off at 100 per cent. The rest of the country may well feel he looked prime ministerial. You never know with those electorate types.
Steve Burgess writes about culture for The Tyee and is author of a new memoir Who Killed Mom?
ELIZABETH MAY WON, RIGHT AFTER THE DEBATE
Charles Campbell
What did I wish for from the federal leaders' debate? The graceful extemporization of Barack Obama? The "Aha!" moment of former BC Liberal leader Gordon Wilson? Maybe a little Elizabeth May?
Well, there was no hope of any of that. What we got, despite certain brief moments of frisson, was the usual old male hacks in a reality TV show that played like the bastard child of Question Period and American Idol. They did their little set pieces, often heedless of the subject they were asked to discuss, they wagged their fingers, they didn't change many minds.
Michael Ignatieff proved that he is quite a bit better than his polling results, but he nevertheless repeats himself overmuch for a seasoned academic debater. Stephen Harper proved that he's a cautious, bloodless comptroller, but he nevertheless admitted that he wants a majority so he can do all the things the current Parliament won't allow him to do. Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe proved that they are generally attractive, thoughtful people who will continue to try and shape national policy from the sidelines, without the complicating responsibility of having actual power.
Did I miss anything?
Harper is hoping for majority by attrition. If we hate watching such spectacles enough, maybe we'll give him a majority so we can be rid of them. Score 1 for Steve the Haircut. Ignatieff is hoping for minority by suspicion. He has Harper's growing record of concealment in his favour, and the Prime Minister's trust score will certainly suffer a bit for the pummeling he took on the night. Score 1 for Mike the Igghead.
So put me down as predicting Harper will fall two seats short of a majority.
I did miss May, who in such a scenario might be quite powerful -- if she wins her seat. In the Green Party leader's first remark on CBC TV after the debate, she quietly noted that there isn't much empirical evidence that cutting corporate taxes creates jobs, and that Canada already has quite possibly the lowest corporate rate among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. I wish that Jack, Giles, or Michael had mentioned that, because for far too many people it would have been actual news.
Charles Campbell is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
LAYTON'S POINTED PERSISTENCE TRIUMPHED
Colleen Kimmett
Jack Layton won the debate. He came out strong with a reference to Stephen Harper's former self – someone who wanted to change Ottawa and clean it up from scandal, waste and political posturing – to a leader who wasted billions on window dressing for an international economic summit that had no discernable economic benefit to Canadians. "You used to care. . . what changed?" he asked.
Although Harper deflected this and other criticisms with admirable ease and grace for someone who was being hammered from all sides, Layton kept on point by pointing out that the government has a choice to make when it comes to spending: You can't cut taxes, continue six per cent healthcare transfers to the provinces, and pay for mega-prisons and fighter jets all at the same time.
Layton also hit on a key point that could win him some immigrant votes that Harper may have alienated by extending wait times for elderly parents who want to join their children here in Canada. "Harper is encouraging more people to come here as temporary foreign workers. . . that's not how we built this country," he said. "Family reunification is the key thing."
Layton's calls for more women in parliament as a necessity to tackle the underlying issue of violence against women was a good move, and more sensitive than Ignatieff's assertion that guns kill women, and he was the only leader to bring up the issue of poverty -- in particular, aboriginal poverty -- during the crime and justice part of the debate.
Generally, I liked the oppositions' discussion on crime and justice. Duceppe, Ignatieff and the Layton agree to disagree that we need more prisons and harsher sentences deter crime, an unproven theory that Harper seems ideologically attached to despite the fact that most Canadians are not. Crime seemed to be where there was the most measured, reasoned and harmonious debate between the parties – at least the opposition parties.
Another highlight in the debate was the pointed question that Paikin put to all candidates: how will you pay for everything you promise? Here I think is where Ignatieff actually shone, quoting figures confidently and succinctly.
I don't think the campaign is in a new mode. I wish that opposition agreement on key issues in this debate -- such as budgetary spending priorities, such as crime -- could have sparked the potential for a coalition (after all, the majority of Canadians did not vote for Stephen Harper) but for some reason (which will probably prove to be detrimental to the Liberal Party and the Canadian people in the long run) Ignatieff again shot down that possibility.
Colleen Kimmett writes about food, the environment and sustainability for The Tyee and others.
FACTS LOST TO HARPER'S POISE
Katie Hyslop
If the competition were based on best one-liners, Jack Layton and his bling would surely not fail. But when it came to staying on message, remaining poised and collected, the winner is Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper.
The debate began with a question from a regular-Canadian-Joe asking about corporate tax cuts, but quickly spiralled into a three-man attack on Harper -- a trend that would continue throughout the debate. All three former opposition-party leaders addressed Harper, still thinking of him as the prime minister they needed to undermine, instead of addressing the public they needed to convince. But Harper looked mainly at camera --and consequently the Canadian public -- for almost the entire debate.
During a debate, facts seem to matter little. Harper continually emphasized that coalitions are not part of Canadian democracy, which is false, and claimed another minority government would take Canada's economy off-track, despite proroguing Parliament when the recession began in 2008. But he was the one leader who spent most of the time defending his government and their proposed budget, which, conveniently for him, is what his platform is based on. No matter what attacks were thrown his way, he used it to deliver his message, and that may convince some of the undecided voters to turn from little c to big C Conservatives.
Katie Hyslop is covering the federal election for The Tyee, and writes about education for the Tyee Solutions Society.
IGNATIEFF AND LAYTON GAINED A STEP
Bill Tieleman
The federal election leaders' debate was wisely not broadcast in prime-time in B.C. -- likely because it hardly featured the material needed for a hit television show.
While there was Jeopardy, there was no winner at the end.
But the leaders' performances did often seem suited for So You Think You Can Dance.
Shuffling the most was Prime Minister Stephen Harper -- under sustained attack throughout the debate from the other three leaders and straining at times to appear unflustered by their jabs.
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff started off on the right foot, giving Harper a series of kicks that hurt -- but ultimately repeated them over and over until he became tiresome.
NDP leader Jack Layton was in surprisingly good dancing form for someone recovering from hip surgery -- and even got off one of the night's best lines by saying Harper would have needed Layton's cane if Ignatieff hadn't been propping him up for two years.
And Gilles Duceppe tap danced all over Harper, knowing that even a fall in the English debate couldn't hurt him in Quebec.
Overall, Ignatieff and Layton may have gained a step on Harper -- but two hours of argument likely had most of the audience changing channels.
Bill Tieleman is a columnist for The Tyee and 24 Hours Vancouver newspaper.
LEN GOULD LOST A LOT OF US
Andrew MacLeod
Off the top, from a Western Canadian perspective, there's something surreal about watching a debate where one of the four participants represents a party for which we can't vote. Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe made some good points and some that were easy to disagree with, but for people in most ridings in the country, what he has to say is irrelevant.
Adding to the surrealism is the fact that the leader of a party that runs candidates across the country, that received nearly a million votes last election and that gets some $1.6 million in public funding, was left out. That's Elizabeth May of course, whose barring from the debate has been widely discussed.
Beyond that, each of the leaders achieved their likely goals for the evening.
Conservative Stephen Harper succeeded at appearing relatively calm and prime ministerial, something he's had five years of practice on. Agree with him or not, he held his own on questions about the long gun registry, multiculturalism and his strange interpretation of Canadian electoral law.
Liberal Michael Ignatieff repeated at least four times that Harper is a control freak who tries to shut down what he can't control, a message that sunk in, while portraying the NDP as incapable of forming a government and therefore not worth voting for. His arguments for balance in our approach to justice and the need to make choices at budget time are correct, if hard to explain in a snippy debate format.
NDP leader Jack Layton argued as much against Ignatieff as against Harper, accusing him as he has Liberals during past elections of propping up Harper's government and helping him implement his agenda, including the unpopular HST in British Columbia and Ontario. Layton painted Ignatieff more than once as just the latest carrier of Liberal arrogance and entitlement, not to mention a hypocrite for opposing things on the hustings that he'd voted for in the house (when he showed up to vote at all). Job done.
Who won? I suspect most Canadians think the winner was whoever they already agreed with and that few minds or votes were changed. My sense was they deserve each other, and the four of them working together should hash it out in a coalition, or at least another minority government, having to put forward their best ideas and defend them.
Two more surreal things to mention . . .
At the start of the debate, the moderator said they'd received 6,000 questions and the producers had read all of them. During the two hour debate, they used a grand total of six of those questions, or one out of a thousand.
They were broad enough, and the leaders loose enough in their responses, that much ground was covered. But the format would have benefitted from some kind of rapid-fire round where more issues were covered.
Finally, what's with one of those questioners, resident of peaceful Gibsons, B.C. Len Gould, being so concerned about crime?
Here's what Money Magazine had to say while naming Gibsons fourth on a list of "next most livable cities": "An idyllic retreat for seafaring types who want to escape big city life while staying a stone's throw away from the big city. The weather is mild year-round, the restaurants are up to big city standards and there is little crime."
Go Canucks.
Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee’s Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria.
Who do you think won the debate and why? Please tell us in a comment below... ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
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Rolf Auer
2 years ago
The debate is important, yes, but the issues are more so
"A Quick One re Tory Scandals" (brief article)
"Why The Harper Government Mismanages The Economy" (article)
"Conservatives Bungle Wooing Seniors' Votes" (brief article)
"Harper Plans to Win Majority Using Women Voters" (article) and more..
This last article after Harper made this promise before he was first elected:
"Yes, I’m ready to support women’s human rights and I agree that Canada has more to do to meet its international obligations to women’s equality. If elected, I will take concrete and immediate measures, as recommended by the United Nations, to ensure that Canada fully upholds its commitments to women in Canada."
— Stephen Harper, January 18, 2006, The Harper Record (pdf)
After Harper got in, he went on to abuse women's human rights for years. The article chronicles this.
Harper certainly doesn't deserve a majority, or to be re-elected at all.
My federal politics blog: clearpolitics.wordpress dot com
(Click "About" re reading posts, or on my picture.)
@Rolf_Auer
Frank
2 years ago
No contest
Layton is by far the most comfortable in this setting. He thinks on his feet better than Ignatieff or Harper and he's able to do it while looking the person he's talking to in the eye, something Harper hasn't managed yet in spite of his being a veteran at this. He delivered his lines well, opened some daylight between himself and the Liberals and came across as someone you could sit down with at the pub.
Ignatieff was pretty good on the attack but came across as too "coached", trying to deliver lines and "outrage" as instructed. He failed to talk much about why people should vote Liberal and also failed to correct Harper's many misdirections in spite of ample opportunity.
Harper continued his usual strategy of trying to look like the victim of bullying, using every opportunity to mislead Canadians about how their system works and the effectiveness of his policies and not looking at his opponents when speaking. Some say that comes across as "prime ministerial", the same people probably think Arnold S. is a great actor.
The Prophet
2 years ago
They avoided the HST..
The debate did nothing...
Those who see Harper for what he is saw the prevaricating premier.
Those who are warming to Ignatief came away with what they wanted.
Layton was solid and keyed on health care, smart move.
Other thought Harper was robotic, stoic, the biggest problem with debates, unless you follow politics and keep out of the spin zone for your information...
The average Joe doesn`t know when they are lying, clearly Harper was fudging on tax cuts, he keeps saying the others want to raise corporate tax rates when the real story is..
They don`t want the next scheduled tax cut, 18% is competitive with anyone, and Harper cited Jack Mintz again, the man defended credit card rates last week on the Michael Smyth show and of course he is better known as flip flop mintz on the HST...
He wrote one thing for CD Howe and another for Campbell, 12 pages for $12 thousand dollars.
And for $12K Mintz claimed the HST would create 100,000 jobs in 10 years, $11 billion in investment in 1o years..He had zero empirical data, guestimation and crystal ball, Mintz cited Atlantic Canada in that report..There is no comparison, they had 4 to 5 points taken off their tax rate..From 19% to 15%, Mintz is a snake oil salesman who sit on the board of directors for Imperial oil, and many more....
Oops, I got carried away, I don`t know why none of the Federal leaders didn`t go after Mintz`s record and flip flopping!
The Prophet
2 years ago
Typo above(prevaricating prime minister)
Oops
realisticman
2 years ago
Difficult to attack Dr. Mintz
Especially when the BC HST, at 12%, is the lowest in the country, except for Alberta which produces energy for export. Jack M. Mintz has published widely in the field of public economics and named in 2004 as one of the world’s most influential tax experts by a UK magazine. He serves as an Associate Editor of International Tax and Public Finance and the Canadian Tax Journal, and is a research fellow of CESifo, Munich, Germany and the Centre for Business Taxation Institute, Oxford University.
Dan the socialist
2 years ago
I thought it was between
I thought it was between Layton and Iggy. Harper did not have the 'pep' he normally does..
But most alleged mainstream media and Nano's think it was Harper that won for some weird reason... http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5201
Dan the socialist
2 years ago
This poll too says Harper
This poll too says Harper won.. http://www.ottawasun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17973746.html
I wonder why Canadians like him so much for?
DPL
2 years ago
So really the pundits are
So really the pundits are just like the rest of us, all over the map. I did like the Bloc leaders first comment about Harper was going to answer the first question by a ordinary citizen, in the campaign. He was out of his bubble and it showed. No ey contact , stared at the TV
Barryeng
2 years ago
Mintz?
@realisticman: Just because Jack Mintz has credentials, does NOT mean that he is right.
Matt T.
2 years ago
Jack's Da Man
Layton won hands down. What really peeves me is the bias of our local media. For instance, Keith Baldrey from Global BC tweeted this:
"Layton looks like an aged elf between Iggy and Harper."
http://twitter.com/#!/keithbaldrey
realisticman
2 years ago
Barry Eng
Just because a few people don't like the BC HST doesn't mean that he is wrong either.
jim1966
2 years ago
It Was Stale
Jack did a good job and so did Iggy. Harper in my view lost big time. If I hear "Let's Be Clear" one more time I think I am going to throw up, exactly how many times did Harper repeat that phrase anyways?. I too was surprised that the HST in BC got little attention (and by the way more than a few people don't like the HST!)Too bad Elizabeth May was not there as I think she should have been and with any luck she will be next time. I was following the CBC online poll and guess what folks?, pundits predict yet another Con minority (79%)asked yikes yet again I sure hope not. All in all a lot of issues were not discussed which in my view Canadians were expecting. I am wondering though exactly how many people tuned in to watch the debates more or less than last time?
Frank
2 years ago
r'man
Mintz is wrong because the prediction in his report didn't happen. Where's the 100,000 new jobs for BC above and beyond normal growth? The reality is that almost a year since the HST was introduced we lead in unemployment.
All the creds in the world can't change the fact that his report, which the BC government waved around, was wrong.
Bobbi
2 years ago
Why Harper Won
I watched the debate surrounded by conservatives, red Tories, and moderate Liberals. We are geeky enough, my hubby, our friends and I, that we left work early and tucked into appies in front of the computer.
Harper won because 1.) He didn't shriek, Iggy came off as a fishwife one too many times.
2.) He may of lied, but it was close enough to the truth it sounded quite good 2a.) What Harper said sounded better because he would say what he thought the Cons had accomplished, pointed to actual items, and then said what he wanted to do next
3.) Iggy rarely gave me a reason to vote for him. I heard it the first time he called Harper a Big, Stinking Meanie. By the 30th time I couldn't stand the man, I was left begging at the screen for more policy than an education passport. I desperately wanted Iggy to show why he would be a great leader, any sign of a holistic direction for Canada. He never sold me on Iggy the PM in the slightest.
4.) Heresy for the Tyee, but Jack just freaks me out. Yup, he's confident, so confident he's never seen someone's earned loonie and not been absolutely confident he could spend it better than them.
5.) As to Duceppe, I had always thought the protection of French Canadian culture was a little bit of a fanatics game. Last night I realized how much of the attitude and beliefs of his party are based on fear of imminent cultural destruction. That fear seemed so pervasive in that plaintive bleat about French demographic insignifigance in North America that I felt a little sympathy for him. It must be so corrosive to the soul of the body politic to live on the percieved edge of oblivion, yet have so few around you care.
Anyhow Harper won because he was a competent sales guy: feature/benefit (I did this/I will do that), calm delivery and an longish list of policy items, most of which sounded plausible enough for the average viewer.
realisticman
2 years ago
Debating the Debate
"OTTAWA — A flash poll conducted immediately following Tuesday night's English-language debate found that four in 10 debate viewers thought Conservative leader Stephen Harper won the event, significantly higher than his nearest rival, NDP leader Jack Layton.
The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global National in the half-hour immediately following the debate, found that 42 per cent of viewers thought Harper won, followed by 25 per cent who thought Layton won. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff was victorious in the eyes of 23 per cent of viewers, while only two per cent of viewers thought Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe won."
Read more: http://www.canada.com/debate+viewers+think+Harper+poll/4605023/story.html#ixzz1JPSR27b0
Jerry Munro
2 years ago
The Game
I agree with the Duceppe won conclusion. Which is still not to say much in a shallow, scripted field. Essentially, they were all variations on a more similar than dis-similar capitalism theme... which is precisely the problem. There is no ideas or programmatic alternative to all of them, challenging the underlying capitalism assumption. For that, it seems, I concede, it appears we have a while to wait yet... for this scripted drama to play itself out in the chaos of yet another cyclical economic and social collapse of Casino Capitalism's greed system.
Which is too bad, but there doesn't appear to be any short-cuts in The Game. It has to run its full course.
Frank
2 years ago
Polls
The polls on who won the debate generally reflect the popularity of the parties.
Cons say Harper won, not a surprise.
Iwannajob
2 years ago
All tied up!
It was a four way tie for first followed closely by 34 million losers!
seth
2 years ago
Lies
In this most gentlemanly of a debate the word is verboten.
Every time the Harp responded with a that's just not true. The opposition dudes should have stated
"Actually it is true Harper - tomorrow we'll see an analysis in the paper's proving it"
Were I Iggy I would have called Harp out.
Iggy " Last week you called me out asking to go mano a mano in debate. When I responded with a - Make My Day any time any place - you chickened out in one of the most craven display's we've seen in Canadian politics's.
Look at me when I'm talking to you Punk.
Now we see bubble boy here touring the country taking at five questions a day from pre cleared MSM press, after using your Goon squad to clear the area all but your rabid supporters.
This is your view of Canada's democracy, cowardly goon squads and secretive lying craven government."
Pretty well all of Harper's statements went beyond just spin to outright lies. I wonder if the Tyee will put Will McMarten to compile a list of lies from the debate - the political equivalent of Mythbuster's.
Just like Carole James,the main mistake of the the opposition was letting the Harp get away with his Blarney on the economy. The ONLY thing thing that Canada has going for it is the high oil price. Otherwise our economy is amongst the worst in the developed world. This massive surge in Oil prices that keeps Canada's dollar so high coming from an industry with such a low labour content while looking good on the average benefits the few a lot while spreading the immense pain amongst the many.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/not-exactly-an-economic-gold-medal/article1962041/
Finally a great opening for tonight's debate, building on the Harp stating that all his economic strategies are vetted by Canada's greatest economist one Jack Mintz - a University of Calgary supporter of Milton Friedman. It was Friedman's (and the Harp's) fascist policies espoused by George Bush that gave us the recent depression.
Since Mintz and his ilk have been widely and vastly discredited (read Paul Krugman an actual Nobel Prize winning economist), there should be lots of good material for the opposition to finally tie the Harp to his personal fascist beliefs.
My fervent hope is that opposition guys tear Harpo a new one tonight based on last nights lies.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
Nobody said the jobs were going to pop up overnight. It takes time for the effect to settle in.
The fact that some people want to scrap the tax and go back to the cumbersome old system and they have have managed to cause a referendum on this will definitely slow any business from going ahead and hiring!
People with golf-club memberships and those that eat out in restaurants a lot want this tax reverted to the old double-reporting system so they can save a few dollars but the less well-off that will lose their rebate cheques are the ones that will be hurt if the BC HST is scrapped. The HST is not added to food costs but apparently that didn't stop Ujjal. Tieleman reported here, "Everything from food to housing is going to cost more," Dosanjh wrote. Er, sorry Mr. Dosanjh but perhaps you didn't know that food is exempt from HST, unless you're buying a candy bar at the local 7-11.
Jack Layton's pledge to let BC keep the $1.6 billion transition fund is a complete joke. How would other provinces react? Why didn't Jack promise to double it? Give BC $3 billion just for the embarrassment of having even thought of refining the tax system. He'll never be PM so he can promise anything!
warbler
2 years ago
What time...
does the hockey game start?
Frank
2 years ago
r'man
Actually the effect of the HST was supposed to begin immediately. It didn't. The reverse happened. Which Mintz didn't predict.
As for going back to the PST, I would prefer the PST was scrapped altogether, as I'm against consumption taxes because they're regressive.
However, going back to the PST would save the good citizens of BC roughly 2 billion dollars a year, according to the Liberals. I think we would all like to see that given the tough times BC is in due to Liberal policies.
crh
2 years ago
Harper
Harper looked really staged and fake...like his lake.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
Polls. The largest circulation newspaper in Canada is the Toronto Star, not a supporter of the Conservatives, to say the very least.
Here's their Ottawa bureau's report on the Debate:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/973865--a-leaders-debate-scorecard
jwstewart
2 years ago
Rolf..
Shouldn't you be paying for advertising?
offended
2 years ago
What debate?
Like a lot of folks in BC, working at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. No rerun. (Boo CBC.)
From clips I did see: Harper looked like an undertaker, Ignatieff too scripted, and Layton did better than I expected.
longtallsally
2 years ago
Harper came out ahead
Harper sounded like he was an elementary teacher trying to reason with a bunch of unruly students. The next best was Jack Layton - what an interesting comment - that Iggy missed over 70 percent of the votes that took place - I'm surprised that Harper didn't bring that up.
j9
2 years ago
they're just a bunch of scardey boys
elizabeth may clearly won this round of "what the f$#K kind of democracy is this anyways?!"
Frank
2 years ago
r'man
Already read it. Also followed along with the blogging by the Globe last night. Jane Taber picked Layton.
The Prophet
2 years ago
@rman
OOH..The few in this Province who aren`t well off!!!
You mean 1.1 million starving people being handed a few morsels in the form of a HST rebate cheque?
Yea right, we have lost 30,000 jobs since July/1/2010 when this tax came in..
Well Lordy Lordy...Those unemployed have no fears now..
They will now qualify for a HST rebate cheque!
Wheeeeee wheeee wheeeee
alive
2 years ago
the deadman lied!
One of the problems with such a debate is that the average viewer did not follow political events all year long, and have no idea what they referred to with some of the remarks!
There is no time to explain, so either you understand it, or you feel lost!
I have no idea why the opponents did not outright call Harpo a liar, because it was so obvious that he lied on several occassions!
Fiat lux
2 years ago
The only winners were
The only winners were Stevie's handlers who've put glasses on him some weeks ago to cover his eyes that frightened people, babies and dogs.
They did the same when they changed Manning's glasses to make him look less of a wimp.
Anybody who knows the record of the past few years also knows, unless a complete idiot, that Stevie was lying every time he opened his mouth. The man is a dangerous megalomaniac psycho.
I don't wish him anything bad, only that he disappears from sight into a string of multimillion directorships.
Ed Deak.
realisticman
2 years ago
Prophet
Have you done the calculations as to how much those receiving the HST rebate would have to spend to be better off if the OLD system were brought back?
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
So Jane has abandoned Iggy? I thought it was true love.
Finewine
2 years ago
Harper
The few short minutes I was able to stomach the debate, I saw Harper as the clear winner.
Sociopathic liars are always more credible than people who are not.
The Prophet
2 years ago
@rman..
Oh yes I do...They merely buy....
They merely buy one used car for $5000,00 ($5 thousand dollars)and they are out $350 dollars.
That`s just one item, cable bill, phone bill, hair salon, haircut, strata fees, oil delivery, food, every big mac, every coffee, every box of chocolate.
You are out of your league with me Rman on the HST.
I can dance on your face all day long and pull it all out in seconds.
Good day
dave0ferg
2 years ago
NOTA
None of the above.
Fiat lux
2 years ago
I've just received renewal
I've just received renewal notices for 2 small limited corporations I have , where now I have to pay HST on the registrations, that never happened before in the 54 years I've owned businesses in BC.
So the BC government can give more to "foreign investors" to take from the country, or buy up more, inflating real estate prices, out of reach of citizens.
Some economics!!!!!
Ed Deak
Frank
2 years ago
Tim Harper in the Star
summed it up as :
"For Harper, the election is unnecessary, the rules of Parliament are mere political games, his opponents are best ignored and the leaders’ debate was an exercise in bickering.
He is betting that if he keeps downplaying everything between now and election day, a dozing electorate could wake up May 3 to a majority Harper government."
coop
2 years ago
Corporate tax cuts and strategic voting
This morning on CBC - during only one news broadcast, they nailed Harper with lying during the debate about corporate tax cuts
Harper said no new ones are planned and CBC said that the rate is set to drop again from 16 percent to 15 percent next year.
ALSO - THEY SAID THE RATE IN THE U.S. is 35 percent!!!!!
the opposition is blowing it as usual - as if Canadians knew the truth about the corporate tax rates - they might change their minds about Harper
Is there any chance that the Tyee could investigate this issue?
Harper said if they raise the rates, corporations would leave Canada - but to where? not to the U.S. where the rate is more than double what it is here!
The only way to oust Harper is by strategic voting
see www.projectdemocracy.ca and www.catch22campaign.ca to find out how....
janetvickers
2 years ago
Canadians are the losers
"Anyhow Harper won because he was a competent sales guy: feature/benefit (I did this/I will do that), calm delivery and an longish list of policy items, most of which sounded plausible enough for the average viewer."
We get a sales guy knocking on our door with prisons to sell for the price of honest democracy. What a bargain!
Driftwood
2 years ago
Same old, same old
Basically I'm in agreement with Jerry Munro. We are being treated to the fake democracy show, then the government will go on robbing us. Although in the unlikely event that the NDP got elected, we would certainly get better health care and education. The other two parties have lied so many times that it's surprising anyone still believes them.
As an aside, here is an interesting article on what is going on in Libya with some very interesting comments underneath. I had no idea that the Libyans get free health care, free education, and subsidized housing - things we ourselves don't have:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27856.htm
And no foreign debt - small wonder that the Americans want to get their claws in.
G West
2 years ago
r/man
That was an utterly useless and totall unrepresentative poll.
Did you not read the details?
The pre-debate survey was conducted among 2,615 English-speaking Canadian adults. The post-debate survey was conducted among 2,365 English-speaking Canadian adults who watched the debate.
Why didn't they just ask folks from Calgary - that would have been just about as 'accurate' a reflection of the demographics of the whole country.
G West
2 years ago
erratum - say again, more carefully....
That was an utterly useless and totally unrepresentative poll.
realisticman
2 years ago
Prophet
Food (basic food and groceries) are HST EXEMPT, including a box of chocolate, as are monthly Strata Fees.
Used cars were taxable under the old system when purchased from any dealer. Only roadside private sales were exempt.
G West
2 years ago
Bobbi - you're probably right
The average Canadian voter is pretty stupid and largely unaware of their own self-interest.
realisticman
2 years ago
Fiat Lux
HST on corporate registrations is recoverable by the corporation and can be added as HST inputs for credit.
realisticman
2 years ago
GWest
A Globe poll of 34,526 voting on the Debate currently shows. This too may be unrepresentative but it is significant.:
40% Stephen Harper
33% Michael Ignatieff
22% Jack Layton
4% Gilles Duceppe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/vote-which-leader-has-impressed-you-most-in-the-debate/article1980918/?from=sec358
I expect there are some contrarian Tweeters.
deeby
2 years ago
A zero-sum game
No knockout punch. Roughly speaking, everyone held their own.
Maybe the FR debate will be different. Iggy and Jack could do some damage there....
Driftwood
2 years ago
Bet you life
Where was the discussion about the nuclear crisis in Japan? While we can't all pack up and get out of the way, why is our government not advising us when particularly nasty plumes of radiation are passing overhead - as they did last weekend. Advising us to stay out of the rain? Publishing test results from the North Coast? No votes in that as the cancers won't start showing up for a few years yet.
Here is an interesting article; well not the article itself but one comment underneath which begins:
'People in Europe are being told to avoid milk and vegetables. Japan has admitted Fukushima has gone past Chernobyl and is getting worse. But here in Hawaii where the priorities are tourism and commercial fishing, we get "It's really no big deal."
And goes on to make several salient points
My question is why isn't Canada testing all the food and water coming in and being consumed here (you don't have to test every raisin from California, just do sample tests) - give us a viewpoint from which to make rational health decisions until Fukushima has stopped emitting radiation. We're all tired of hearing about radiation, but wishes aren't horses and it is still here. Would you bet your life on our government's luke warm response to this very real threat?
Frank
2 years ago
Just my opinion, probably wrong
I track all the pollsters, keep a pretty close eye on every little uptick of 0.1% in New Brunswick or whatever.
However, I have the feeling all the polls are wrong and the main reason I have for believing that is that all those Liberals who disappeared off the map last election will return in large numbers.
Another is that I think the under 30 population will increase its turnout and since the younger generation tend to be anything but Conservative I expect that turnout will upset the polls.
Third, as we see from today's Compass poll, the undecided level is huge. 35% according to that company. Compass has the Conservatives way out in front but then again they stand far less chance of getting support from the undecideds.
Finally, Quebec in particular could go quite differently than it has in the past. We'll see how Duceppe does tonight.
So since pollsters base a lot of their stats on the last election and since that last election may have been an anomaly and because of the reasons I've listed I think there's a lot of room for the election to be different than predicted.
Again, just my opinion. My list could mean nothing in the end.
The Prophet
2 years ago
HST on food...
On cips, barbecued chicken, potato salad, deli sandwhich, box of chocalate, candies, pop, peanuts,...
There is HST on strata fees, everyone in strata have been charged 7% more, because strate fees are on the lawn maintenance, on all services, the HST has been passed onto condo users, don`t fuck with me Rman.
HST on vitamins, supplements, chiropractor, vet bills, all labour, all services, real estate fees, home inspection..and on all commercial real estate transactions both new and used businesses which gets passed onto consumers.
You lose Rman and the HST is going down, current polls are 70% opposed to the HST.
You have had 22 months to sell the HST(from July/2009)..The meter hasn`t budged.
HA HA.
The Prophet
2 years ago
On chips..
oops
wcullen
2 years ago
Lies, Damn Lies, and Stephen Harper
I'll try posting this again.
I'm not interested in debating the long-gun registry because it is beside my point. I'm using Harper's comments ON the LGR because they're such clear illustrations that he is disingenuous.
Several times in the debate Harper stood and said that most or all police and police associations support scrapping the LGR.
Now, if you or I said this we could be forgiven for being wrong--and you woudl be wrong. But, as a the leader of a party and as the PM the same excuses cannot--and should not--be made. Harper knows this statement was un-true, or he is incredibly incompetent. Although I'd like to call him the latter, I doubt very much this is the case and, so, we're left with the former and the conclusion that he willfully mislead the audience on this topic.
For the record, the Canadian Police Assoc., the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police, AND the Canadian Assoc. of Police Boards are strongly in support of the long gun registry contrary to Harper's comments.
The Canadian Firearm's Research Ctr survey of general service police ('beat' cops) found 74% in support. Also, the RCMP report found 81% in support.
Long-gun are responsible for almost 50% of all crimes against police and fatalities involving police.
It is accessed by police departments over 10,000 times PER DAY!
Now, remember, it does not matter what your opinion toward the LGR is (at least for this point). What matters is that Harper is consciously and clearly mis-leading citizens.
The only stats I could find against? Popular opinion, and non-scientific, polls, from people with a clear bias (i.e. John Fantino, former police chief, TOPD, Commissioner, OPP--yes, but now PC MP).
Most damning, in my opinion, is the fact that 71% of all spousal homicides occur with hunting and sporting rifles and shotguns (long guns).
I'm not suggesting there aren't problems with a gun registry. What I am saying is that Harper didn't mis-represent the argument and facts on this issue, he outright lied about them.
Also, alone this might be forgivable (although I don't think so), but in conjunction with 3 contempt findings from parliament, a person would have to be nothing less than incredulous to support him.
Furthermore, the government was brought down NOT by a vote of non-confidence on Harper's budget, rather on a unanimous three party support of the Liberal non-confidence vote based on these contempt findings.
Harper, by saying it was a non-confidence vote on his Bills" is bald-faced lying, and those supporting this are tantamount to these lies.
I don't support, or believe, in a 'conservative' attitude; however, I do not think conservatives are--by merely being conservatives--'bad' people.
However, what conservatives HAVE to realize is that they cannot support Harper and support Canadian democracy.
You cannot have it both ways in the face of his track record.
If anything, take back your party. These are not Canadian conservatives.
G West
2 years ago
It's not only NOT Representative - it's totally pathetic
Ruling out of the equation a huge whack of the demographic and including an unknown number of dweebs who use anonymizer software to twit vote more than once - many more times than once - means such phony surveys aren't any more of an accurate measure of opinion than the Tyee's question of the week.
You really are clutching at straws.
pianosaurus rex
2 years ago
storm in a tea cup
Elizabeth May won the debate simply on the fact that she was not allowed into the debate. Imagine that; state radio and television, operated and broadcast on YOUR TAX DOLLARS tells you, the Canadian voter, who you can have in a debate.
Really something; had enough of this corrupted system yet Canadians? I guess a few more decades will be tolerated by the sheeple that make up this country…..
But of course, out west, we are served up with the completely irrelevant Bloc inclusion……
Mcleod’s comments are on the mark, quoted here;
“Off the top, from a Western Canadian perspective, there's something surreal about watching a debate where one of the four participants represents a party for which we can't vote. Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe made some good points and some that were easy to disagree with, but for people in most ridings in the country, what he has to say is irrelevant.”
I never watched the debate. What for? Entirely predictable result not only from the debaters but from the writers included in this article. Complete waste of pixels.……
G West
2 years ago
wcullen
I don't disagree with you. Lies are Harper's lingua franca - that's why he's the choice of such old political war horses as John Reynolds.
I notice you didn't mention that one of Pee Wee's ministers was also found in contempt of parliament by the SPEAKER - which should have been made more of during the debate.
His resort to the 'evidence' of a couple of retired policemen in his caucus to counter the clear evidence from the chiefs of police all across this country on the gun registry was cowardly and shameful as well.
In some respects, I've been very disappointed by the lack of 'fact' or reality checking with respect to Harper's statements by the CBC.
The public broadcaster, at least, should be doing better on that score.
In the end though, as I've said before, the stupidity of the Canadian voter is almost impossible to over state.
JPR
2 years ago
Corporate Tax Cuts
I wanted to scream at the opposition every time they let Harper away with his assertion that "according to every credible economist" increased corporate taxes harm business. Most of the available evidence does not support this but it is precisely this lie that enables Harper to gather enough votes. It's the economy stupid and we don't want to do anything that might harm it. If the three opposition leaders could not counter this assertion even once then none of them deserves to be PM. I felt let down.
RickW
2 years ago
R/M old man
May be the lowest in the country, but check out what the HST is applied to compared to BC. I will wait for you to get back to me on that. Cheers!
RickW
2 years ago
G West
Methinks the public broadcaster is quaking in it's boots over the possibility of a Harper majority, and a subsequent disbanding of the CBC. After all, Harper has to find that magical $11 billion, and one billion of it can come from CBC. So it attempts to placate the "master" in small ways (as you mentioned).
onesafeplanet
2 years ago
whio won the debate
ELIZABETH MAY WON THE DEBATE BECAUSE THE PEOPLE NOW HAVE A SINGLE REASON TO VOTE AGAINST HARPER, LAYTON AND IGNATIEFF.
It appears the consortium of broadcasters representing the global elites won the first round by trying to disenfranchise one million citizens who voted Green in the last election by keeping Elizabeth May out of the debate. This is a type of fascist maneuver that John Ralston Saul refers to as "corporatism" AND is an escalation in the manipulation of the democratic process in Canada. We have followed the American election model from gerrymandering to political coercion,to manipulation of the main stream media to finally a clear cut act of obstruction of the process. The fact that the above commentators have little concern that this election is a complete fraud goes to show just how much we have lost not only in terms of the desire for democracy but in terms of our fundamental values of honesty and decency. I see a lot of clever comments on this page but very little wisdom.
Frank
2 years ago
onesafeplanet
If the NDP didn't win any seats they wouldn't be in the next debate either.
We'd all like to see a rule such as you have to have one million votes or seats in the House or something but that's what happens when you leave the debate up to the networks instead of Elections Canada. They can make up a new rule every time out.
Frank
2 years ago
Live by the poll, die by the poll
Ekos has a new poll out today.
In the Maritimes they have the Liberals in first place with 41.8%. The Cons are well back at 28.
Last time around the Cons had a 36 to 32 lead.
In BC the NDP are now in first place with 36.8% (up from 20), well ahead of the Cons at 26 (down from 34) and the Liberals at 23.
In Ontario the Liberals are practically in a tie with the Cons, both at roughly 38%. NDP support has fallen to 14.
In Quebec the Bloc have fallen to 31 and the NDP have risen to 21. This is the 3rd pollster that puts the NDP in 2nd place in Quebec. The Libs have 19 and the Cons have 18.
I just figured I'd bring this poll up since I doubt Luke or r'man would have mentioned it.
The Prophet
2 years ago
Cut n pasted from that Ekos poll...Cheers Frank
Ottawa – April 13, 2011] – In polling conducted early this week, voters appear to be backing away from a Conservative majority and are now looking more carefully at other options. In what is the tightest period of the race so far, the 11-point cushion that Conservatives had in the opening days of the campaign has been replaced with a scant 5-point lead.
Their comfortable and seat-efficient Ontario margin of 10 points has basically vanished and, at these numbers, the Conservatives would be looking at a significantly diminished minority.
The Conservatives are now at 33.8 points nationally – down from the outset of the early campaign where they were at 36.9 points. They are now more than three points shy of the last election and showing newfound weakness in the key regions of Ontario and British Columbia. Meanwhile, the Liberals are moving up steadily (if unspectacularly) and are now tied in the crucial Ontario market and newly competitive in a tight four-way race in British Columbia.
The other main story of this poll is that the claimed demise of the NDP is clearly premature. The New Democrats are showing important new strength, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia where they now lead. The NDP have risen steadily since the outset of the campaign (interestingly, not at the expense of the Liberal Party). Bloc support, meanwhile, continues to be off somewhat in Quebec but no real clear federalist champion has emerged. Elizabeth May’s Green Party has rebounded somewhat with Canadians and her party continues to do very well with voters under 25
alive
2 years ago
Easy solution
If you wanted the Greens partake in that debate, then vote for proportional representation!
Frank
2 years ago
On Ekos
From Eric Grenier at 308 today :
"We're all very familiar with EKOS. They have a good track record, being one of the top five pollsters in my ranking of 24 Canadian firms, and they have been active in this campaign."
Nanos also released their usual daily poll and they also have the Liberals moving ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario. Also according to Nanos the NDP is in 3rd place in BC and Quebec and outside of Ontario they have the Cons in the lead.
Cool Hand
2 years ago
New Compas Poll Out Today
.
With large sample size of 2,151.
Con: 45%
Lib: 24%
NDP: 16%
Green: 7%
BQ: 8%
http://www.compas.ca/data/110413-NationalElectionPoll_Prt1-VoteIntentions-EPCB.pdf
The question is.... which pollster is correct?
Compas, Nanos, Ipsos, Ekos, Angus Reid Strategies, Harris-Decima, Leger, Abacus, Environics, Forum Research, Innovative Research, CROP, ... ??!!
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
Eric Grenier at 308 says he will give the Compas poll "minimal" weight in tomorrow's update.
In his opinion they have no track record that's worth anything.
But I can see why you post the Compas poll and not the Nanos or Ekos polls.
Guess you don't think much of 308 after all eh.
The Prophet
2 years ago
Hey Lukie, Dr. Conrad Winn is a right wing nut bar!
Who is Dr. Conrad Winn?...He is the founder of Compas opinion polls.
_______________________________________________
Perhaps you should read this about the dear old professor, below was cut n pasted.
_______________________________________________
Via IP, it seems one of my Professors at Carleton has been given the chance to ruin Canada on a much larger scale than his mediocre, unhinged classroom:
Claiming they don't want the process to be captured by special interests, the Conservatives have decided to employ what could be the very first closed-door public consultation.
They have hired pollster Conrad Winn to conduct a poll, and a think tank to convene a series of focus groups across the country. Citizens will be probed for their thoughts on the role of political parties in policy development, the decorum (read lack of it) in the House of Commons, Senate reform, civic engagement and, oh yes, electoral reform.
Let me back up a little here. I had professors at Carleton who were right-wing nutbars. I have no problem with right-wing professors, and I have little problem with right-wing professors who occasionally bring their own political views to the classroom -- I was a political science student, it's kind of inevitable. I give right-wing profs exactly the same latitude I give the left-wing profs, and truth be told I had twice as many lefty profs who annoyed me as I did right-wing profs.
(In particular, I had a rightist history prof who couldn't help but rant about the corrupt Liberals every day. In a Chinese History class.)
My point is, I hope you'll believe me when I say that I'm not so ideologically intolerant that I would reject a professor simply because they hold or espouse views I disagree with.
Conrad Winn is not just conservative. He's so conservative that other conservative students follow him around from class to class, year to year. Entering one of his classes is like entering a poorly-constituted cult: you've got the new people who have no idea what the fuck is going on, and then you've got the true believers.
I enrolled in his class shortly after New Orleans was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina, and I remember quite clearly listening to Winn accuse CNN of "playing the race card" in order to help Democrats politically. This was in 2005, when there was no election. One of America's blackest cities was left to drown by the Federal government, but according to Winn CNN was "playing the race card."
Maybe I was still too angry about Katrina, maybe -- no, definitely -- I was just creeped out by the pod people. In any case, I am somewhat ashamed to say I walked out of the class and didn't look back, something I had never done before and don't plan on doing again.
So let's just say I can't wait to see what kind of crap Winn puts together on electoral reform. I expect a detailed poll telling Canadians that what they really want is for 2/3 of Parliament's seats to be given to Alberta
Cool Hand
2 years ago
Frank
Since you have already posted Ekos, here's Nanos for today:
Canada
Con: 40%
Lib: 31%
NDP: 17%
Green: 4%
BQ: 8%
BC
Con: 45%
Lib: 32%
NDP: 16%
Green: 7%
BTW, while Compas stayed out of the 2008 federal election, they were major players in the 2000, 2004, and 2006 election campaigns.
In fact, their riding specific poll of Surrey North (Cadman's seat) was virtually bang-on for all candidates during the 2004 election.
http://www.compas.ca/data/040611-SurreyNorth-EP.pdf
Driftwood
2 years ago
Dear Mr. Prime Minister
Could you please send me another banana while you're still in election mode?
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
Eric Grenier is much less thrilled about them than you are.
As we once agreed, its not the numbers, its the trends, and Compass has no trend line.
RougePierre
2 years ago
Who won the debate?
Welll.. I think I'd rather comment on Who Lost the Debate. The citizens of Canada lost the debate, largely because it wasn't a debate. It was a few snippets of disagreement between the leaders of Canada's political parties (oops, not ALL the leaders), with little substance and much posturing. In other words, television.
Not to worry. Everyone will forget the exercise within a few days anyway.
If anyone really cares, study the issues, try to get a handle on what the parties will actually try to do after the election, and vote your conscience.
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
And Ekos was "bang on" about the election of Rob Ford to the mayor's seat of Toronto.
Whatever, both Ekos and Nanos have the Libs either in the lead or tied with the Cons in Ontario/ That's huge and wrecks Harper's chances of a majority. The Ontario results suggest a strategic movement by NDP voters to the Libs to stop the Cons.
In Quebec we have Ekos, Angus Reid and Environics putting the NDP in 2nd place behind the Bloc. And Forum Research has the NDP tied for 2nd. Nanos doesn't agree but I'm inclined to believe the other 4.
In BC only Ekos puts the NDP in 1st place but Harris-Decima, Angus Reid and Leger put them in 2nd place and have the Cons somewhere between 34 and 40. Once again I'm not inclined to believe Nanos who puts the Cons at 45%.
As I've been saying for two weeks, the trends suggest there is no reason to believe Harper will get his majority.
The world will not end.
puppyg
2 years ago
New to science
The evidence is mounting that Mr. Harper's coif is not of this world. Remote sensing of light reflected off its surface suggests a hydrogen-boron shell bonded to a core of rogue proteins and non-terrestrial DNA.
"It gives the appearance of a centurion helmet crossed with the image of JFK pre-1962", related one researcher.
"... all the features of a Ken doll wrought large and encased in lacquer", opined another.
Further spectroscopic analyses are expected to clarify its composition. NASA has expressed interest. As well, Madame Tussaud's is seeking the green light to explore its potential for commercial applications.
nikkobaud
2 years ago
All hail Stevie the First
Stevie showed that he does not want to govern Canada, but to rule it, and Parliament just gets in his way. His contempt for Parliament is absolute. and given his use of the Prime Minister's Office, beyond parliamentary oversight, a majority would allow Stevie to rule Canada from the PMO to his heart's desire. And, sadly for Canada, many Canadians agree.
RickW
2 years ago
Driftwood
You'll have to pay for that banana yourself - unless you can get it included in the Economic Election.....er......Action Plan.
zalm
2 years ago
Thank you all
Some magnificent comment here. Thanks Prophet, Frank, bobbi, seth, janetvickers, wcullen & others. Makes me feel like I was there.
Which I wasn't. At all.
Driftwood
2 years ago
They all lost.
The issues nobody mentioned
1. Getting out of Afghanistan
2. Monitoring radiation in foods to help especially us on the coast avoid radiation from Fukushima
3. Sending bombers to bomb a sovereign country with DU, which will be causing cancer and mutating babies in Libya for the next 4.5 billion years. That is to say for as long as humanity exists. A vote for Harper is a vote for a war criminal. It is the most abominable aspect of this whole charade - Depleted Uranium dust scattered over the country to kill innocent people for aeons. It is disgusting and sickening beyond measure.
Frank
2 years ago
Jack Layton rocks
According to the Globe and Mail the first polls after the debate seem to be showing the NDP on the rise with the Cons in decline.
Con party supporters of course say Harper won and Dippers say Layton won and so on but its the fence-sitters who seem to be saying Layton was the most impressive.
Up 2% nationally in a couple of days, again, according to the Globe.
Frank
2 years ago
Harper backdrops
The Conservatives have asked people coming to meetings with Stephen Harper to please show up in traditional garb. Makes a nice backdrop I guess and the pictures then say Stephen is a man of the people and all that.
That's nice.
http://shitharperdid.ca.nyud.net/
realisticman
2 years ago
Rocks?
Let's be honest Frank, yes Ipsos has the NDP rising and at 18.3% but at the start of the campaign they had them at 19.9%. The Conservatives are .3% up on where they started.
Essentially, things are just about the same as the start, except for the Liberals up 3.5% and the Bloc down 2.6%.
308 has the NDP also just where they were at the start, 16%. The Libs up 2 and the Conservatives up 5%. The Block down 1%.
Frank
2 years ago
r'man
Don't attack the messenger, I was quite upfront in saying where my information came from.
As for Ipsos, there's 6 other pollsters I give more credence to. (Leger, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima, Nanos, Ekos and Environics)
If you follow all the articles and comments on 308 you'd know that not all pollsters have the same track record. And you'd also know that a party losing 5% in ridings where it has no chance and gaining 5% in ridings where it does, is significant. Those national numbers conceal more than they elucidate.
But regardless of that, your argument is with the Globe and Mail and their statement that the NDP was up the most after the first debate.
The Prophet
2 years ago
Rman...Ipsos...Ha HA..
Nuff said...
Daryll Bricker gives his clients exactly what they want to hear.
Good day
Frank
2 years ago
By the way
Here's the link to the article on the Globe
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-trends-up-after-debate-while-liberal-support-stays-stagnant/article1985114/
The Prophet
2 years ago
You and Brad Cool Hand Lukie Z
You guys are clutching at straws...Luke and his right wing nut bar Conrad Winn and Compas polls and now you Rman reach into the sewer and cite Ipsos...Wow
What?...Nothing from the Fraser Institute?
Frank
2 years ago
308
You should also know that it takes a long time for numbers on 308 to change. He keeps old polls. For example today Eric said he added the Nanos poll from April 8th 10th. Seriously?
He also added the COMPAS poll which I think was a bad decision.
Anyway, the reason he does that is so things change in slow motion and trends have to go on for a long time to actually change the overall numbers.
In my opinion those are problems with his method as I believe the numbers are much more volatile than he does. A view I'm sure individual pollsters would agree with as they see it in their own polls.
But we'll see who's right on election night.
Frank
2 years ago
"Too close to call"
Another website called "Too close to call" that does a poll averaging similar to Eric at 308 said this today :
"The big difference with the start of the election is that the Conservatives have lost some ground, especially in the Atlantic and Ontario. The results being that instead of projecting a majority in average, these mid-campaign projections put the Tories at a maximum of a majority, therefore less likely. We'll see if the good performance of Harper during the English debate (he was really weak in French) will help him and his party climb back to majority territory.
For the NDP, the best and worst case scenarios aren't that different. We are talking more symbolism here, with being able to cross the 40-seats threshold or getting more than 1 seat in Quebec. However, Layton performed very well in the debates (both, and he's the only leader who got two good performances), so I wouldn't be surprised to see this party climb to around 20% nationally."
Go here to see the rest of what he said about the Liberals, Greens and Bloc and his current projection.
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/
crh
2 years ago
too funny
New to science
The evidence is mounting that Mr. Harper's coif is not of this world. Remote sensing of light reflected off its surface suggests a hydrogen-boron shell bonded to a core of rogue proteins and non-terrestrial DNA.
"It gives the appearance of a centurion helmet crossed with the image of JFK pre-1962", related one researcher.
"... all the features of a Ken doll wrought large and encased in lacquer", opined another.
Further spectroscopic analyses are expected to clarify its composition. NASA has expressed interest. As well, Madame Tussaud's is seeking the green light to explore its potential for commercial applications.
Thanks for this puppyg...you made my day
Cool Hand
2 years ago
Frank
Most people are actually tuning this election out - our 4th election in 7 years. And they don't want another one in another 1 or 2 years.
That will be the simplistic ballot box question as voters go into the polling booth. That's also the narrative that I'm hearing "on the street". Many don't care if it means a Conservative majority.
More anecdotal evidence from the left-leaning Toronto Star today, which story today focuses on NDP held Burnaby Douglas:
1. Calvin Gan works at a Wal-Mart store. He’s been a long-time NDP voter. But this time, he’s not sure. I’d like to go back to a majority (government). These minorities are too much . . ."
“I’m leaning more to the Conservatives because of their leader — Mr. Harper. He seems more competent than the others."
2. "Henrietta Henney is also grappling with the question of what to do.
“I voted for Siksay and the NDP” in 2008, she says. That leaves me the Liberals and I just don’t know. I think Mr. (Liberal leader Michael) Ignatieff has possibilities.”
3. "Optician Gloria MacDonald counts herself as another former NDP voter. Now I’d like to see a majority and I think Harper has done a good job."
4. "Computer technician Daniel Goldsby. He too voted NDP in 2008. This time, however, he plans to support the Conservatives. I’d like to see the Conservatives with a majority. It’s about time for that.”
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/974296--walkom-in-b-c-an-ndp-stronghold-in-mortal-peril
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
What's the source of your view that most people are tuning this election out?
I already read the Walkom column this morning. The NDP could lose that riding, we'll see. But I imagine they'll gain as many or more than they lose.
jimorsheryl
2 years ago
The Conservatives Lied??
And honest Jack told nothing but the truth I suppose??
Without doubt, the Conservatives are the WORST Federal Party, except for all the others.
Frank
2 years ago
jimorsheryl
That's not much of a defence of your Conservatives.
I don't see the old "Sure we're evil but so are you" tack being the best strategy.
But hey, go with it and we'll find out if that puts the Cons over the top.
Frank
2 years ago
Another poll aggregator
http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php
They are predicting currently that the combined Liberal-NDP seat totals will be more than the Conservatives.
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
The number of people who watched the entire english language debate saw a considerable increase (CTV says 27%) over those who watched in 2008.
And the number of people who watched at least part of the debate also increased, it was close to 11 million.
I'll stick with my belief that voter turnout is going to increase over 2008.
wcullen
2 years ago
jimorsheryl
Okay, first, Harper's government has been FOUND in contempt of parliament a record 3 times (and, possibly again with the G20 issue).
Second, I drew specific evidence of Harper's lies--where's yours..?
Third, whether or not some else lied (once it is shown not merely stated) is not a defence for Harper, any more than stating "[a]nd honest Jack told nothing but the truth I suppose??" makes a point...
Typical: broad brush, no substance.
Cool Hand
2 years ago
Frank
While I doubt you will, I would put some weight on these fresh Mustel federal numbers for BC. They are also in line with Eric Grenier's aggregate/weighted BC numbers.
Con - 42% (-3% from 2008)
Lib - 25% (+6% from 2008)
NDP - 24% (-2% from 2008)
Green - 9% (+-0%)
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20110414.pdf
Frank
2 years ago
Luke
Did you read my question?
As for Mustel, their poll matches up exactly with the one done by Innovative Research so you could say Eric's already got them in his aggregate.
Driftwood
2 years ago
@ RickW Surely you jest
Why should I have to pay for the banana? Does not our Inglorious Leader live at the top of the Canabanana tree? Does he not send billions of stolen Canbanas to private banks and investors at every opportunity? Did he not steal one billion Canbanas to fund a party for the world's top banana eaters Toronto? Did he not probe your very pockets with his banana when he helped impose the hst? Did he not Cananibalize our health care and IE? What's one small banana to a thief of such legendary genius? :)
(does he not want to sit on Canada's banana and rotate?)
Driftwood
2 years ago
You want rasberry with that?
or chocolate fudge?
zalm
2 years ago
Any day now
Harper and his crew of spinners will realize the downward slide in popularity won't reverse itself without heroic efforts, and they'll fall back on old tricks...unleashing the hounds of war.
There'll be vicious attacks, dogmatism, dirty tricks, vituperation, and a lot of scare stories planted in the press in an attempt to scare people away from other parties and into the arms of the Cons.
And it will work just like it did last time - most reasonable people will stop thinking of voting for the Cons as a reasonable alternative, and will flee to the safety of Green, Liberal, NDP or not voting at all.
And Harper will have, at best, another minority. Which won't hurt - far better than a majority of any stripe.
History repeats itself so often my eyes are getting blurry looking at it.
jimorsheryl
2 years ago
WHO found Harper in Contempt???
The same bunch of clowns we keep sending to Ottawa.
NONE of them are capable and NONE of them are interested in much more than getting a good job and pension. Unfortunately they are ALL we seem to be able to put together in this country.
Combined they have put us $500 billion in the hole, we have a bankrupting disease care system, that will just continue to grow and grow and consume more and more resources.
YUP the Conservatives ARE the WORST federal party ..... except for all the rest.
Frank
2 years ago
jimorsheryl
Why not do some fact checking before you post Conservative talking points?
Who found Harper in contempt? The Speaker of the House did.
"“You win some, you lose some.” That’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s offhand dismissal of the fact that the Speaker of the House of Commons has, in effect, found that his government abused its power and brushed aside the rights of the people’s elected representatives. It’s just part of the political game, he says.
Now that Speaker Peter Milliken has ruled that the government flouted the rights of Parliament by refusing to provide parliamentarians with information about the cost of its key programs, Harper says he will “comply” with the judgment. End of story, as far as he’s concerned. "
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/article/952150--speaker-s-rulings-harper-shows-his-contempt
As for our debt, the NDP has never been the government of Canada and therefore the debt is the fault of the Liberals and Conservatives. And the Conservatives own most of it.
jimorsheryl
2 years ago
Wcullen
Jack clearly said that Harper was responsible for the use of a in house Tim Hortons being used as overflow in a hospital recently.
That is nothing short of a blatant lie, and complete twisting of what actually happened.
I too was disgusted to think patients were being wheeled over to the local Timmies because a hospital couldn't handle them. Then I found out the Hortons was built inside the hospital and was DESIGNED to handle emergency overflow, and in this case the REASON was because of some 100 people coming in all at once because of an accident.
The fact the hospital is under the provincial government and subject to local administration, were 'facts' that honest Jack just had to ignore and make out like Harper is gutting Tommy's system.
Do you KNOW how much money goes into disease care now, and do you REALLY think we can afford much more???
jimorsheryl
2 years ago
Frank .... facts??
"As for our debt, the NDP has never been the government of Canada and therefore the debt is the fault of the Liberals and Conservatives. And the Conservatives own most of it."
And the NDP have never supported a budget? They have always raised a loud voice that the government was spending too much??
Show me the facts about the deficit again??
I can't stand deficit financing either, but NO ONE has any idea how to run our country without one.
I have yet to see an NDP fact based budget showing how they would manage the economy, they just sit back making wild promises, secure in the fact they will NEVER have to deliver on any of them, because as you point out they never have, nor ever will form a government. They have 16 - 17% Tommy hanger's on and that is it.
The rest of us just don't buy what they are selling, we know that state ownership don't work.
Frank
2 years ago
jimorsheryl
The NDP has never designed a federal budget. You can look it up. As for giving their support to a budget in return for something else, sure, but even that has been rare. You have no case.
"Show me the facts about the deficit again??"
Liberals or Conservatives have been in power every year since the second world war. Trudeau ran large deficits and then Mulroney ran even larger ones. Harper decided to break the record.
The NDP may only get between 16% and 19% of the vote but the Conservatives get a minority too. This election they probably won't even get 40% if pollsters are to be believed. And the future doesn't look too bright either if you're a Conservative because their support falls off a cliff when you remove people over the age of 60.
"The rest of us just don't buy what they are selling, we know that state ownership don't work."
And how has selling off the assets of the state worked out? Not too well obviously. That's what happens when people believe a country should sell assets that produce revenue. You end up with less revenue. You guys will get it eventually.
Frank
2 years ago
Today's poll
Forum Research who polls for the Hill-Times says the NDP is now at 22% nationally, the Libs are at 25% and the Cons at 36%.
"An analysis of the poll findings showed that if the election were held today, the Conservatives would win 143 Commons seats, the Liberals 76, the Bloc Québécois 45 and the NDP 44. "
I don't have the numbers for the new Ekos weekly poll yet but I've heard it also shows the NDP up significantly.
Frank
2 years ago
Ekos
Cons 35
Libs 28
NDP 18
Grn 10
Bloc 7
Other 2
What Ekos says about the NDP
"The New Democrats are the only ones to improve position during the campaign. The party continues to lead as second choice and is now in a better position than it was at this stage of the 2008 campaign.
The NDP does very well in British Columbia and looks surprisingly strong in Quebec. It is also attracting women’s votes. Less auspiciously for its prospects, the party attracts the highest number of voters who would consider changing their minds. It suggests there are a fair number of strategic voters in their ranks who will weigh options until the final stages of the campaign to see how to best frustrate Stephen Harper’s aspirations."
Frank
2 years ago
Today's Nanos
Cons 38.7
Libs 28.8
NDP 18.6
Bloc 9
Grn 3.7
From the article : "Jack Layton is closing the gap between his New Democrats and Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals in the wake of the televised leaders’ debates, according to a new Nanos Research poll.
The NDP Leader appears to be getting the biggest bump from debate week, as Stephen Harper’s support remains steady and Liberal support weakens. "
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-makes-gains-as-tories-liberals-hold-steady/article1986643/
OwlRol
2 years ago
Issues, not polls
Great stuff people. We need more dialogue that just doesn't happen in these televised debates. (6 questions?)
If the economy is so important, and it is, (as so often repeated by the Stevie doll), why don't we model our government on the new, improved Chinese model, with high growth and GDP, as well as little democracy or human rights. (Keep on exporting our raw resources.)
Maybe that's why we need funding for super prisons instead of youth crime prevention or real victims compensation programs, let alone boosting our court and judicial systems.
If the tar sands projects supposedly will provide us with more than "100 years of oil security", why do we want to explore and export much riskier Arctic oil (think Gulf oil spill magnified 100 times)? So much effort for northern sovereignty & security.
F 35 jets, (not exposed until lately, that the last one to roll off the assembly line will be in 20 years), long after smaller, cheaper & more efficient, remote controlled aircraft, already applied in currently, albeit, less effective roles (think aero tech changes between 1911 and the 30s), aside from many geo-politically changing roles, will cost every Canadian resident between $750 to $1000, kids included, (better applied to ship building & improved veteran care), but $2 to support the party you voted for is too wasteful?
Can't really blame Collin, Gordo & Kevin for not turning down Harpo's 1.6 B. to implement the HST during tough economic times.
But like those U.S. bills with a flurry of "earmarks", or the previous federal budget that affected who ran environmental protection, plastered on its tail end, B.C. residents are pissed off because they not just think, but feel they are being scammed by being taxed on so many items that were exempt on the old GST. Simplify and harmonize the paperwork without these tax tags to most of us and there wouldn't have been a whimper.
Climate change, a real National Energy Plan, affordable post graduate ed., severe cuts on quality health care or meaningful senior and disability care (not just tax rebates that spawn their own mounds of paperwork), serious urban & rural infrastructure improvements, so many crucial issues easily evaded using provincial or municipal jurisdictional responsibilities or federal budget costs.
Minimal from Harper, a bit more from Ignatief, the best from Layton, but most essentially sidelined. Yet these are the things the vast majority of Canadians were listening for.
Most of us lost. The big foreign investment (ownership) corporations are surely laughing at us all the way to the banks.
zalm
2 years ago
Snigger
"I too was disgusted to think patients were being wheeled over to the local Timmies because a hospital couldn't handle them. Then I found out the Hortons was built inside the hospital and was DESIGNED to handle emergency overflow, and in this case the REASON was because of some 100 people coming in all at once because of an accident."
Except it was a normal Friday night in the hospital. Timmie's is full of patients at least once a week, the staff pointed out. I don't know how many 100-person car crashes you've heard of lately.
Some people are slow on the uptake....
zalm
2 years ago
Oh my goodness
...the idiocy just goes on and on!
"The rest of us just don't buy what they are selling, we know that state ownership don't work."
Well, state ownership of the military works a lot better than private, I'll tell you. So does state ownership of roads, rail lines, and ports so that people and goods can move about freely with equal access. State ownership of the currency system worked quite well up until 1973, when it was given over to private banks. I'll grant you state ownership of some aspects of credit creation haven't worked well, but neither has private ownership of credit creation worked, payday loan companies being only one of the smallest of a very sorry lot of contemptible greedheads in that industry.
State ownership of water resources in BC has worked somewhat better than private ownership in Columbia, Argentina, France, Thailand and the US where ddams fail, aquifers are contaminated or pumped dry, and friends of the owners get the resources for less than everybody else. But really, it's the same problem in both places.
State ownership of land title processes is the item that made the latest speculative bubble in property possible - I'm surprised that rabid free-enterprisers have no idea how much of their so-called "freedom" is founded on statist and communal principles to enshrine equal access of opportunity for all.
State ownership of the judiciary is only working marginally well - I think there's room for improvement there. But I'm not sure privatizing the judiciary like they've done in parts of the US, Mexico, Kazakhstan, or privatizing the judiciary by giving it over to religion like has been done in large parts of the Middle East, East Asia and assorted spotty places in the world has been such a successful issue either.
It's transparency that's the problem. And Canada does not do so well here as most European countries, particularly the Nordic ones, which seem to come out on top in the ratings by Transparency International. With a little more transparency, perhaps state ownership of resources (rather than just playing the royalties game) may present better opportunities to maximize profit over the long term.
But perhaps you're thinking that state ownership of education hasn't worked. I'd say in jimorsheryl's case, that certainly is true.
dave49
2 years ago
Heard some of it on the radio
I heard some of the English debate on the radio. Given I don't watch television and have seen little of any of these men, I think Ignatieff came across very well.
Hopefully this debate has gone a long way to counter the Tory TV advertising campaign aimed at Ignatieff, and before him, Dion.