Global oil production could begin to decline as early as this year, a leaked German military document warns.
And drastic consequences – including market collapses, extremist regimes and all-out war – might only be 15 to 30 years away.
The report comes from the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think-tank tasked with analyzing security trends for the German military.
Theories about “peak oil” are nothing new. The first serious analyses appeared in the 1950s. But an increasing number of military agencies worry peak oil -- and its attendant consequences -- is quickly approaching.
Oil is needed in some way to produce 95 percent of industrial goods. Since nearly all transportation depends on fossil fuels, severe tax hikes could cripple international trade, the report warns.
“In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,” reads an English translation from German news agency Der Spiegel.
As the market threat of peak oil grows, more states will seek to secure energy supplies. That will in effect funnel political and economic power to oil-producing nations. The report notes, for instance, how Germany will likely have to be more accommodating to Russian foreign policy.
Even still, the markets of many poorer nations will crash under most scenarios. Economic collapse could open “room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government,” the report reads. This could “in extreme cases lead to open conflict.”
News of the report was first printed last week by Der Spiegel. No mention has yet appeared in Canada’s major media outlets.
In late August, news reports surfaced explaining how the UK government is keeping documents secret that show concern about an impending energy crisis.
Earlier this year, the U.S. military warned about peak oil-type scenarios in its analysis of global security trends.
“One should not forget,” the Joint Forces Command report stated, “that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest.”
Geoff Dembicki reports for the Tyee.
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puppyg
2 years ago
Germans comprehend peak oil
Germans comprehend peak oil threat and report truthfully. Canada feels betrayed and vows reprisal.
freebear
2 years ago
Don't forget
the tanks and jet fighters need oil too!
The 21st century version of the Luftwaffe 'Blitz' of England; will we be as resilent?
clear.the.air
2 years ago
Two birds with one stone
Basically, oil depletion and climate change have the same problem: the burning of fossil fuels. The sooner we put a price on carbon, get rid of or at least shift our fossil fuel subsidies to clean energy technologies (currently FF subsidies exceed CE subsidies by a factor of 12 globally: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-29/fossil-fuel-subsidies-are-12-times-support-for-renewables-study-shows.html), invest heavily in R&D (e.g. batteries, fusion) and make renewables more cost-competitive (solar is already cost-competitive with nuclear: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2010/06/solar-photovoltaics-pv-is-cost-competitive-now) the better off we'll all be in terms of having an economy and communities that are resilient against the worst effects of both peak oil and climate change. The longer we take on both fronts the more severe the impacts and costs will be.
And the advantages of business as usual are what exactly?
Stephanie T
2 years ago
Here's an idea..........
From the article:
"Since nearly all transportation depends on fossil fuels, severe tax hikes could cripple international trade, the report warns."
Which would be, in my opinion, a god send.
I think it is way past time we reverted to the old system where Canadians made/grew stuff and sold it to other Canadians. We have all the raw materials we need. We have plenty of fertile land. We have enough oil to carry us through while we convert to renewable. We have plenty of capable people. Is there something inherently wrong with this? Who's bright idea was it to start shipping our ore, logs, oil, etc. across the ocean so other people can make stuff to ship BACK ACROSS the ocean to sell to us. It's no god damned wonder the world is in such a fuckin'mess.
Fiat lux
2 years ago
This scenario only applies
This scenario only applies if the world continues the path to self destruction with the present monetary, parasitic economic system, taught in our univerisities as a "science".
Use the definition of physical efficiency as "doing the most work with the least physical inputs" and the start on the road to logical economic systems.
End the fraud of "free trade" and "globalization" that serve only the purpose to separate the producers from the users in the name of "monetary efficiency" and make products locally with the least energy inputs.
Stop long distance commuting to needless jobs.
Stop exports and imports to the greatest and absolutely necessary degree.
The world has survived and thrived with local economic systems for thousands of years and with modern technology they can be revived.
We've been practicing local self sufficiency to the highest degree, virtually all our lives and now, in our old age, are reaping the benefits.
Let the Chinese and the Indians produce goods for their own peoples and benefit and Canadians and Germans for our own use and benefit and most of the problems, and the need for oil inputs will disappear.
Ed Deak.