The Hook

yeah right

He who pays the piper calls the tune!
just check who sponsored that poll.

It seems to me that polls

It seems to me that polls nowadays are more about trying to influence the voter than giving a snap-shot on how people feel at a particular point in time. Maybe elections BC should look into the idea that once the writ is dropped, political poll results should be kept private between the polling firm and their client. Of course after the election those results could be released, if anyone is really interested!!!

With all the hate...

Even with all the NDP's hatred of the premier, with yesterday's incident in Revelstoke by their riding president, hate ad, attack ads, Gordon Campbell is going to win by a landslide next Tuesday. In fact, the only policy the NDP has is "Gordon Campbell is Lucifer" and it clearly isn't working. Can anything be learned from this? I doubt it and Campbell can stay premier as long as he wants if the Faithful don't change their tune. Negative ads don't work in Canada. They never have and they never will.

I don't exactly see Carole distancing herself from said hate, either.

Maybe the NDP will learn that policy and not attack ads win elections but I doubt it.

In this case, the attack ads have backfired and the Liberals will poll more than they did in 2005.

Green Vote

"Among decided voters in B.C., 47 per cent say they would vote for the B.C. Liberals. That's about the same vote share they pulled in 2005."

Well the Liberals are actually slightly higher than they were in 2005. They would be even higher than that, using your logic, if the Greens weren't pulling votes from the Liberals, right? Ergo the only thing that is keeping the NDP from being slaughtered like in 2001 is the Greens. Therefore, if the NDP prospects in your riding are not looking good, the strategic vote would be Green, right?

"The New Democratic Party trails at 36 per cent. That represents a drop of six points from their popular vote in 2005."

Good thing Green support is coming from the Liberals, eh?

NDP's two paths to victory

Both which the campaign has ignored.

The numbers are in showing the Gordo as Canada's least competent economic manager with the BC economy as one of the worst in Canada beating Glen Clark's statistics for bad news. The debt load represented by non IPP PPP's represents an unprecedented run up in the provinces debt but because of slick accounting procedures remains off book. The current budget is obviously at least a billion dollar fudget. Paul Willcox is seeing signs over in Victoria of a massive Neocon style budget balancing exercise of the type Gordo's chief economic advisors Michael Campbell and Russ Limbaugh have been advocating.

However if IPP's are added in Campbell can take the prize as the least competent economic manager in Canadian history with the current IPP Buy High Sell Low program after a BCLiberal reelection set to create losses to BC Hydro of close to 2 billion dollars a year over 40 years and/or double electricity rates almost immediately. Easy to show but the NDP will have to pay for the ads themselves as the all media including the Tyee here refuse to cover the financial details of this horrendous mess.

The second path would be to appeal to Alexandra Morton's "the Salmon will not survive another Liberal term" theme and persuade the Green brand low information voters that the cost of voting Green and reelecting Gordo is just too high and best to wait for STV and the next election to elect Greens.

The NDP has soul-searching to do

The NDP are done in this election and they only have themselves to blame. It was completely winnable, but their utter lack of campaign discipline has shut them out of power.

The real question New Democrats should ask is why won't working class people vote for them?

It's because most working class people are concerned about their families, home ownership, and the future of their jobs. Most working class people work in the private sector, and the NDP has shown nothing but contempt for the people who sign their paycheques. And most workers aren't at odds with their employers. The NDP have offered nothing for these voters.

Successful social movements work because they recognize and instill confidence in the private sector. Tony Blair and Barack Obama did this. The NDP are still preaching class war and squash the rich, and they did it in this election with unacceptable venom.

"If you go carryin' pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow..."

The NDP has to get back to the centre.

Nota Bene: this poll was taken before

This poll was taken before Campbell fell on his face in the TV debate.

Despite the lame format and even lamer questions nothing could couldn't save him from looking like a woman hater and 'slightly crazy' (not my words, by the way).

Don't put the champagne on ice yet

Built for Speed

So, based on when the poll was conducted - almost immediately after the revelations about the driving records of three candidates which also refreshed our memories of Campbell's own DUI conviction - show how much BC voters like bad drivers!

One would guess, and I'd say safely, that Liberal support would suffer a little in the wake of their candidates' driving infractions and another poll showed this to be true.

The survey says it asked 601 eligible voters. It doesn't indicate what geographic locations the respondents reside in.

The findings are suspect.

Seth- thank you!

...your analysis now and on your many prior posts is, IMO, spot on. I am continually surprised and impressed by the quality of your informstion and common sense, logical arguments....if you were running -you would have my vote...and others would surely vote for you too.

...with respect to the wild salmon issue, playing the cynic here,what better way for the state to facilitate oil & gas development off the west coast and more money for the cronies, backroom boys, etc, then to encourage open pen salmon fishery (legally it is not farming) right at the mouths of rivers and migration routes so that the wild salmon fry coming downstream without scales ...will get wiped out by lice, bacteria and disease. ...wild salmon, the life-forms that depend on them, the culture of First Nations and a way of life on the coast, why they are corporate and political externalities...unaccounted for, not even in the "cost-benefit" analysis or environmental assessment. Can you just imagine the "loot" from offshore oil & gas, and the mega companies, oil rigs and tankers involved -cynically just what we need -more (dumb) economic growth adding to the Province's GDP...of course the Feds will get a cut.

as for polls...this one seems uber contrived and manipulated.

Very transparent poll.

Very transparent poll. Things to consider: Environics has offices in Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, and Oakland.
Most of their published polls are federal in nature.

As other blogger noted--poll asserts it was conducted prior to debate. Gordon Campbell (BC Liberal) and Jane Sterk (BC Green) don't perform well in the debate, which this poll follows.

The sponsor of the poll--is the most noteworthy 3rd party promoter of the BC Liberals (Independent Contractors).

BC Green's are 12% in the poll. General political PR is Green's split NDP vote.

Sample size--suggest (4.0%) margin of error. BC Liberals have fewer incumbents--pushing for third term--poor economy--generally these ingredients would tend on a balance of probabilities to push the BC Liberal trend down--rather than up.

My professional opinion is that this poll--based primarily on the timing of the release--relative to the outcome of the debate is intended to:

(a) ameliorate the damage caused to the 'losers' in the debate--Mr. Campbell and Ms. Sterk;

(b) hold as many BC Greens as possible-- who aren't attracted to Campbell--and aren't confident in Jane Sterk from leaving--- ie cause and affect--BC Green post poll from 12% to 9% rather than 8% to 5%.

This poll and the Mustel poll at the front end of the election-which so conspicuously favour the BC Liberals--with no such polls from BC NDP supporters--make me more than just a little concerned about the motivation--, and affirm what I hear from voters who are paying attention--that all election polls should be banned at least two weeks from election date.

The problem that these polls present sometimes if the motivation is not intended as merely a 'snapshot in time' is that the folks who answer BC Liberal on the phone stay home and don't vote--while the BC New Democrats continue to dig.

Indeed they do....

"The NDP has soul-searching to do"

Indeed they do. They have run a negative, hate campaign and it has blown up in their faces.

Fortunately for the Liberals, they will not do that soul searching. As the above posters clearly demonstrate, this is not possible for the Faithful; hence the Liberal dynasty will continue until that day comes. I don't see that happening any time soon.

The responses just confirm the problem...

The replies here simply confirm the problem I outlined above.

Polls are against the NDP? Blame the pollsters!

Don't elect enough MLA's? Blame the electoral system!

Don't gather enough votes? The voters are stupid!

Look in the mirror and change, for god's sake!

Hate campaign?

Wilfred, explain to me how exposing facts about the Liberals is hateful?

Hmm

After Campbell's complete failure in the debate I think it's a valid argument to say Campbell is the one who's gone negative, all the time, and it's served him very poorly - of course, expecting soul-searching from the CEO is like expecting ethics from Wall Street (or Howe Street)...these things just don't go together.

The feeling I'm getting on the streets is that about 70% of women have had it with our misogynist Premier and some 40 - 50 percent of men agree with the ladies.

He’ll still get seats in the Bible Belt and Kelowna – but it is going to be a battle everywhere else.

CEO government, everywhere, has reached its best-before date.

It’s time to make history and elect the first woman Premier in any Canadian province.

This is going to be a very interesting election...

Contempt

Yes, Campbell has gone negative. During the debate one could sense the contempt he has for anyone who challenges him. Hence the cheap shot he took at James.

It's pretty pathetic too that Campbell is running attack ads on the 1990s NDP.

Seat Projection, Garth?

Well, Garth, what is your seat projection? I would wager 55 Liberal, 30 NDP. What is your bet?

Actually, the problem

with this poll is worse by far than I thought, because province political columnist's mike's smyth column today is entitled roughly "Campbell ahead despite debate..." So the province newspaper has either unknowingly and shoddily used a poll, conducted before the debate to say the debate made no difference, or it has deliberately tried to mislead readers and influence the election outcome. I have phoned the province news room to complain that the entire thrust of smyth's article is therefore invalid and I have also phoned ndp campaign headquarters and informed them of the situation. This is extremely disappointing as michael smyth in the last few months had at least occasionally held campbell to account, something no doubt to do with plummeting readership. If think this poll is both unfair and being unfairly used please write a letter to the province newspaper, or perhaps complain to the admittedly toothless (in my opinion) bc press council. thanks for listening folks...

Yes, Frenchy

I also tend to disbelieve polls that do agree with my political bias. Any seat projections from you, Frenchy? I stand by 55 Liberal 35 NDP. There might be one Green at NDP expense.

What't your take on the election that is a mere seven days away, Frenchy?

My post has now been posted on the

michael smyth article comment thread, however, in my opinion the entire article should still be pulled as its title and general thrust is so misleading, deliberately, or not. I hope mr smyth will have the decency to write at least a partial retraction in his next column...

C'mon Frenchy

Let's see your seat projection. I am interested to know how big the Faithful think Carole's landslide will be.

the faithful

Wilf, just thought I should let you know that many of the faithful are busy soul searching, something we apparently tend to do a lot of.

Now, there is lots of speculation about why the Liberals don't tend to engage in this, but I believe it's a spurious lie that they collectively have no souls.

We've seen the 'faithful's' prediction Wilf

You just gave it to us:

I stand by 55 Liberal 35 NDP. There might be one Green at NDP expense. (WilFRED Laurier)

Remember.

Democratic Socialists are used to losing - and it's not a real problem because we know there is something more important than winning and we're not prepared to set a price for everything.

As I've said before the stupid people get as many votes (one per) as the smart ones.

If Campbell happens to lose it will be because he's made too many bad decisions, been too corrupt and subject to manipulation and rewarded his small circle of friends too handsomely to the point that the stench has filled the land - it won't be because a majority of people have smartened up since 2005.

The funny thing is why guys like Wilf even bother to show up here to rub shoulders with folks they think are so stupid – kind of schoolyard bully thing I guess.

I just don't believe it.

Environics poll is a small sample size and its a one shot deal. Only Angus Reid and Robbins have several polls unleashed in this campaign to show actual voter trends. I'll wait and see for more from Mustel and Ipsos before debating that.

?

"Democratic Socialists are used to losing"

You sound like you have given up, Garth. Why not change your party so you can do your good work?

LeftofCentre

Gee, will you be running for office any time soon? With that "centrist" strategy that no one has ever tried before you'd be a shoe-in I'm sure.

Good luck with that!

Wilf the troll

Still haven't learned to do math since yesterday eh?

Please go look up how many seats are in BC before you make your prediction.

Oh, and how come last week you wrote on the Tyee that the Libs would win 60 seats and this week its 55?

Margin of error

The poll has a 4% margin of error, which could well mean that its still a dead heat between the two, not to mention that its the distribution of the vote that really matters.

Frank...

Frank, there are 85 seats, my error.

I still stand by my prediction that the Liberals will win a healthy majority and increase their seat count.

55 Liberal

30 NDP

Maybe 1 Green at NDP expense.

What is your projection, Frank? I'm interested to know as you have a good insight into the size and scope of NDP drubbings.

I rest my case

With pleasure.

Must be nice to have a leader who's afraid of loud noises.

Frank....

"With that "centrist" strategy that no one has ever tried before you'd be a shoe-in I'm sure."

Moving towards the centre gave Mike Harcourt his victory and has seen Gary Doer a lot of electoral success. Are you simply content with losing?

Still haven't seen your seat projection, Garth. Resigned to losing, too?

My Canuck prediction

The Canucks will win tonight,4-2

However, like Wilf, I will be changing my prediction as events happen. So after each period I may change my prediction. In fact, like Wilf, I may change my prediction after each goal is scored.

And I will post my in-game prediction both here and on the Chicago Sun-Times website to annoy Blackhawk fans with my considerable wit which I'm sure they will enjoy.

indeed

You are very witty, Frank.

Wilf

"What is your projection, Frank?"

If the Canucks win the series the night before the election I'll predict 65 Liberal and 20 NDP.

If the Canucks are defeated in Game 5 or 6 I will predict 60 Liberal and 25 NDP.

Very true

"You are very witty, Frank."

Times change, Frank. I will maintain my seat projection. You won't even make one.

Your party is going to lose an election it should have by all rights won and easily could have won. But again, defeat was snatched from the jaws of victory. Actually, Carole never had a chance and you know it.

I will be gracious let you insert the last word now. A small victory is better than none.

Wilf

"Moving towards the centre gave Mike Harcourt his victory and has seen Gary Doer a lot of electoral success."

Gary Doer is further to the Left than Carole James.

He was a union leader.

"Are you simply content with losing?"

Like the federal Liberals? Sure, we've both lost a couple of elections but who knows what the future will bring.

Here are a few points about the BC Election 2009

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_589.html

Wilf

"Times change, Frank. I will maintain my seat projection. You won't even make one."

I love the fact you posted that after my prediction.

"Your party is going to lose an election it should have by all rights won and easily could have won."

Sez you, they had no chance sez me and I've been saying that since the last election. In other words, you're wrong as always.

"Actually, Carole never had a chance and you know it."

Cool. So in spite of the fact you keep predicting the NDP snatch defeat from the jaws of victory whereas I keep predicting they will lose I'm the one that's supposed to admit Carole never had a chance?

Logic and continuity aren't your strong suits are they?

"I will be gracious let you insert the last word now."

Oh god how I wish it was true but tomorrow you'll be back.

The Canucks have a better chance of winning this series in 5 games than I have of ever not reading your silly posts in the future.

Wilf

I don't bet my suckers, I buy 'em!

Cheers old fella, I've bookmarked YOUR prediction - but I can't decide which one: the one that had the wrong number of total seats or the one you corrected after the error was pointed out....

As a BC voter since 1956,

As a BC voter since 1956, I've never seen a more incompetent and corrupt government that makes secret deals, sells public properties without public consultation, makes incredibly poor deals, like the river projects and the PPPs and the crazy privatization schemes that lose public control of services and cost the taxpayer far more, etc. etc. in an endless list.

Pointing out this incredible mess is not a "hate campaign", but the duty of every decent person and politician to point out and fight.

Ed Deak.

VivianLea

Thank you for the kind words.

And you're right about soul-searching, the Right doesn't give a fig about child poverty numbers or the abuse in the Ministry of Children and Families. To them and their pro-carbon tax friends, its all good.

"Mr. Campbell you've abandoned the North"

For me--the most important moment in the debate which I feel is and ought to impact on this election is BC New Democrat leader Carole James saying "Mr. Campbell you have abandoned the north."

It made me think of the church scene in the movie "There Will be Blood", when Daniel-Day Lewis (mindblowing actor)--

"I've abandoned my boy."

Remember WAC Bennett was from Kelowna and orignally came to BC about 60 years ago--in the Peace River--I know times change--the world has changed--but could you even compare either of these two men--and how they treat their province?

WAC Bennett's leadership was the province was family--BC First-last and always--I will always be committed to this--and I am no protectionist.

I think Campbell really developed Vancouver as an urban centre--but that torch has been passed to Gregor Robertson--a younger man--mayor of Vancouver.

He did some building up in the north--but forestry--the carbon tax--the first perhaps no fault of his own--but really with Pine Beetle and everything else--I was up there for many weeks last year--he had better hope the small business class up there are all in. Kamloops is very young and dynamic. Traditional of rural New Democrat.

If the BC NDP does not marketly improve up north--it would mean Carole James people people have abandoned her--for certain. She would never have produced that 'brand' on Campbell and the north--if she did not believe she had evidence of it. It's clearly a line in the sand--and a brilliant line--win, lose or draw--because I believe it to be true.

glen

Environics......

LOL--Wilf.......Your guess.....55 Lib--35 NDP---Now 55 Lib--30 NDP.....

Your all over the map........

This election,the results,here is the deal folks and PAB trolls......And you pay close attention rocket scientist Wilf....

The NDP currently have 34 seats.....

If you read the commentary on the environics poll,here is what they said....

The NDP are WINNING Vancouver island.

The Liberals are winning the Fraser Valley.....

The inner city and the interior is close.

So what does that mean? NOTHING,the Phil Hocstein poll is useless,but it does conform one thing,the last Ipsos Reid poll said Campbell was leading on Vancouver island,now we know that "Con" has been DEBUNKED.

The NDP have 34 seats now,the NDP are going to pick up 3 0r 4 seats on the island...
The NDP are going to sweep Burnaby,thats a pick-up of 3 more seats

Fraserview is going NDP

Dave Hayer is (LIB) is losing his Surrey seat

Maple Ridge Mission is going NDP

Prince George 1 or 2 seat pick-up fro the NDP

East Kooteney Bill Bennett (LIB) is going down.
Falcon May lose,Ian Black IS going to lose.....
Now we are at 48 NDP seats....

Maybe 1 or 2 NDP lose their seats (Maybe)but where?

1996 all over again--NDP 48 seats--1 independent-Liberals 35 seats....

Sorry Wilfred,this election is over,Gordon Campbell just lost 10% more of the female vote sunday night.......And the quote(statement) of the week belongs to David Berner.
David Berner said that Gordon Campbell looked Scary,bug-eyed,nervous,like a pyscho....
And that is how he looked to everyone else,Gordon Campbell looked like a "Menataly deranged,freaked out politician who doesn`t believe his own spin"
That is what people saw,and it will sit in the voters mind as they put Xs beside the NDPers Names.

Cheers

David Berners take

Bug-eyed,desperate,......Read it yourself,here at this link.

http://thebernermonologues.blogspot.com/2009/05/our-deep-commitment-to-local-affairs.html

See you in hell Gordon Campbell

TrendLines Research 4-model avg

The Avg for the 4 seat projection models that have converted this month's first provincial poll (Environics) indicates that the Liberals had a commanding 63-22 lead on May 2nd.

Long term chart viewable at our website: www.trendlines.ca/electbc.htm

For any folks who are

For any folks who are interested. Kari Simpson of Roadkill Radio phoned yesterday and asked me to do election night with former BC premier Bill Vander Zalm.

I don't get out much--sounds like fun to me!

Sacha Peter and Peter Kelly

Also--I wrote Sacha Peter and Peter Kelly of BC Elections--site 2009 that I thought their website was really good. Analysis is not emotional and subtle at times.

Oh, and just for you Wilf....

Here's my view - as of this moment....

Campbell forces - likely wins:

A. Interior 11
B. Vancouver 4
C. Lower Mainland (x-Van) 20
D. Island 2

TOTAL 37

NDP forces - likely wins:
A. Interior 5
B. Vancouver 5
C. Lower Mainland (x-Van) 6
D. Island 8

TOTAL 24

Currently the rest of the ridings are up for grabs - split like this:

A. Interior 8
B. Vancouver 2
C. Lower Mainland (x-Van) 9
D. Island 5

TOTAL 24
The NDP is much more efficiently spread across the whole of the province - The Campbell forces are very strong in one area...and one area alone....If the NDP gets out the vote they have a chance to upset the CEO - the Liberal voters, too concentrated in one geographical area, really haven't got much to do with it at all.

In my view.

Has anyone thought of this?

Has anyone thought of this? Will Phil Hochstein and Independent Contractors Association--probably the largest supporter of the BC Liberals in the province right now and sponsors of the Environics poll--expense the cost of the poll as an election advertisment?

from Jim Van

from Jim Van Rassel

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090505/liberal_poll_090505/20090505?hub=Canada

Does this make it easier for us to poll or not? (too cute_

Another from Jim Van Rassel

pollster says 4 in 10 calls fake and asking for money. I think this is a problem but frankly we lose 4 in ten on the front end--often less---ROBBINS was the first to move polling from 30 minutes to 2-5-. Polling firms that ask people how much they earn (ROBBINS does not)--and informatin which the respondent might construe as personal--financial-- business--would provoke this--we always pledge how long we will be--respondents either buy in or don't--right then and there.

Only once in a while will Canadian respondents say "you aren't selling something are you." Americans are clean--in and out.

We did not conduct this research--but in my experience--for ROBBINS I would wager this number was high--but we could be operating in a vacuum because of our excellent bedside manner.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090505/telemarketer_fraud_090505/20090505?hub=Canada

Does anyone have an opinion

Does anyone have an opinion on this question?

In your opinion will 'digital agitation' have an impact on your vote in this BC general provincial election?

anytime, Frank

Soul searching mandatory: humour always helps. Yep, its hard to think of those impoverished children, not to mention students like me. Personally, I have to maintain a sense of play or I'd never survive...

Interesting, G West.I think you're pretty close.

Robbins Sce Research

Don't know about "digital agitation"...in my set that perhaps has a different connotation than yours...

Thoughtful commentary, or maybe just a community of the thinking, plays a huge role in a democracy that is denigrated at the present moment, but neccessary for all that. Call it soul searching if you like, but unless each of us is willing to think a little deeper about how we expect to be governed (and how to participate in that) well, we're toast.
I enjoyed your commentary in the links you provided, BTW.

Robbins Sce Research

Oh, except that bit about"analysis is not emotional"...

I find that supposed "professional",pseudo-scientific point of view so much b******t.
Politics can't be separated from the emotional, except in those who think it's a game of enriching themselves and friends. For the rest of us, it impacts every daily decision like grocery shopping, or calling in sick from work. It affects our parents, and our children, and it's very, very particular...both the particular and the universal are essentials of politics that engages people.
Now, back to studying for exams and contemplating my massive student debt...

Viv--politics is

Viv--politics is emotional--analysis of it can be as well. I intended professional to mean their writing style/analysis.

I think these website people are likely left of centre--however they are doing their best to be reasonable unbias.

Personally, I poll for accurate outcomes--everybody has to consider their ability to be accurate if they want to be good--or stay relevant--- if our tone is a certain way--from respondents we will try to write it that way. That's our/my style--I was simply admiring the style of their site--which I left for people to research--so as not to pander.

OK?

glen

Also vivian--I should have

Also vivian--I should have indicated that if memory serves me it was the Premier's son Geoff who was handling 'digital agitation during the election'?

Did anyone else read this?

OK!

Hey glen,

I appreciate a variety of points of view, always. And I appreciated your clarification there...

But on a personal note...calling me "Viv" will get you kicked out of my room, as I've said before..

Cheers!

Interesting that in these

Interesting that in these times of "booming" economies and "wealth creation", students have to go into deep debt to learn subjects absolutely necessary for human survival. (Except economics of course, which is fraudulent all over the world).

When I was studying at Cambridge in the early postwar years, we hardly had to pay anything. I was comparing notes with a retired UBC professor friend neighbour, who was also there about the same time and he agreed that our tuition fees were next to nothing, when much of the country was still in ruins and the housing shortage was desperate.

But then, we now have a system for "those who can afford it".

Ed Deak.

these times...

Yes Ed, more and more education is for those who can afford it. It is a serious hardship for those who can't; the debt truly is massive. Most of the students I know are working full time, and still end up with huge debt...but even worse, it's not the best and the brightest that are getting degrees, by and large - just the richest.

I suspect we as a culture will truly come to regret this in a very short time...

Ed and VivianLea

True observations - and a sad situation for our future...I think the regret is already sprinkled pretty widely on the ground....

Brings to mind a passage from Dickens that encapsulate what we're doing to the young...

'I have no will. That is to say,...next to none that I can put in action now. Trained by main force; broken, not bent; heavily ironed with an object on which I was never consulted and which was never mine; shipped away to the other end of the world before I was of age...always grinding in a mill I always hated; what is to be expected from me in middle life? Will, purpose, hope? All those lights were extinguished before I could sound the words.'

...'I am the only child of parents who weighed, measured and priced everything; for whom what could not be weighed, measured, and priced, had no existence...'

Yeah sure....

Environics. Whatever you say.

respectively, robbins not a virgin

Sorry to burst your bubble, Glen, but actually TrendLines Research was the first pollster to commence under-five-minute calls.

Vivian--I believe I got

Vivian--I believe I got "Viv" from a Night at the Roxbury--which -- for whatever reason was not nominated for an Oscar. I did not mean to go beyond respectable borders of engagement--

glen

but that which cannot be measured

"...A dream of the just society. We might think of political actions as following a map; maps, mental or otherwise, are simplifications and amplifications of important features. Dreams are personal, subjective, inchoate; the very essence of the particular. Perhaps it was his understanding of that which allowed him to see that a truly ‘national dream’ – in Pierre Berton’s sense of the great railway building – might never come to pass in that fashion again. That the new national dream would be composed of images, fragments, whispers, and evocations from millions of disparate people with a bewildering array of voice, and that it was this that would make Canada a signally remarkable country. That the blend of the particular and the universal would be needed in building that just society. Isuma... at the heart of the citizenship ideal of the just society within a multicultural nation."

I post this excerpt from a paper I recently wrote, G West, and am indebted to John Ralston Saul for the word isuma - the Inuit word meaning an intelligence that consists of the knowledge of our responsibilities towards society. We are all the children of those parents, at least in a metaphorical sense...but it still remains our privilege and perogative to change it.

Freddy--thanks--when did

Freddy--thanks--when did they start this--? Do you recall?--great minds think alike--I don't mind sharing in that!

glen

Robbins Sce Research

Hah! You made me laugh, Glen... I am somewhat averse to delineating myself "respectable"! Perhaps "digital agitator" would be closer...
In any event, no borders of repectable engagement crossed; just my personal quirk.

5 minute calls

1990 Poli-Poll ... in Ontario ... also initiated running nightly polls and chart tracking methodologies.

BTW

BTW Glen, we're updating the Federal seat projections tonite for the website. I haven't included your poll data since the January Robbins cross-Canada survey. You haven't augmented the headline numbers with seat projections for a very long time.

I will include them in the multi-model Avg if u want to venture some figures in the future...

Environics press release

Buried in the release: 601 eligible voters were questioned

Only 508 indicated their preference.

The undecideds are around 15% plus or minus .5%.

Changes the poll just a little, eh.

Interesting that no one, and I mean no one, in the media (Tyee included) has reported this.

G West--we asked 20

G West--we asked 20 businesses with under 10 employees if $10.00 was okay? 17 of them said they already paid $10 per hour, and thought it was fair--they are concerned that those who they are paying $10--will want $12--- or $13--and that is of some concern--the rest of this is hysteria mostly from those with liquor licenses.

I have empathy for these folks to this extent. If you are under 17--say $8.25 per hour--over 17 $8.25 training wage--100 hours than to $9.25. Too many young kids do their service of 300 hours and get let go before their wage goes up. Alot of the larger businesses don't have a lot of credibility on this issue.

Also--a business could decide to opt in or opt out--keep the same wage rate--training rate--no business tax credit--opt in and receive the tax credit.

offended--the elements of

offended--the elements of the poll including the sponsor--the size of the poll--the dates respondents were obtained--the release--etc--means nothing to me--you need to represent 1.0 to 1.5 % or the poll -- to me---is public relations--with a square root sign.

Freddy--Ignatieff isn't quite well known enough -- and his positives are too high--needs to settle or the poll in my opinion is a souffle.

off topic: Federal riding projection

Please excuse this off topic interruption: Perhaps a post Vancouver convention bump is in the cards, but the 5-model conversion Avg of 6 April national polls indicates that the Grits would have commenced a hypothetical late April election campaign with a 125-109 lead over the Tories.

View the long term chart tracking at www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

And now we return to regular programming...

Thanks Glen

My clients in the small business sector would welcome a $10/hour minimum wage.

Their reasoning?

They already pay more than that - the government forcing the slugs to move their pay scales closer to what is needed to actually live a decent life would make their operations MORE competitive.

Now they're fighting a war to the bottom with the folks who don't give a shit about the quality of life of the people who do the actual work for them...

Last thing in the world I want in my organization is a disgruntled, unhappy, hard-working but underappreciated employee.