The Hook

Well, if that's the case...

...Mr. Campbell better hope that the utter lameoisity of his Twitter posts somehow gives him a boost with all those young'uns online.

____

Speaking of the tweets, how come Mr. Campbell didn't tell us he wasn't going here today?

Amazing

Well Proffessor,you got students,do your own damn poll,you can`t call a thousand people around the province,your study is crap,garbage,it is based on false assumltions.....
Your basing your can study on 5 polls

2 Mustel-2 Ipsos-1 angus reid-

Change that to --the last 3 Angus reid and the last 2 Ipsos reid and the numbers are turned on their head.

And your not taking into account any "issues" like corruption,cadidates morality,people aren`t robots.

I can`t believe the garbage from a proffessor being passed off as a " intelligent thinking.

Are you related to Marc Jaccard?

i don't believe it

the liberals might be ahead, but only by a hair...and if this election happened today, the ndp would likely win...angus reid is polling the north in detail where the gas tax is DOA...and the ndp has a 10 pt lead compared to the 7 pt lead they won with on the island...yes it really is that close

Black Magic

"The reason why pollsters release results during elections is to demonstrate their accuracy so they can sell polling services to private/government firms after the election.

This is not inaccurate but more to the point is that polling is the Voodoo of politics.

These guys tell you what you are thinking then "poll" you to confirm it has worked and the ones who are best at it get the contracts to continuing doing it.

The fact is this should be the hightest priority of government reform, these pollsters and the lobbyists run government all the rest is spin doctored from there.

To hell with STV bring in regulated ability to actually gauge real response from real people on real issues.

Not a bunch of word crafted, clever manipulations passed off as popular opinion.

That anybody actually believes this government should be re-elected is a bloody miracle. The people who delivered are the same criminals that deliver polling and lobbyists.

A much better record than kennedy stewart

Maybe have a look at what these guys have to say:
http://www.electionprediction.org/

G West: You're kidding!

Maybe have a look at what these guys have to say:
http://www.electionprediction.org/

Thanks for the laugh. That site is nothing but a waste of time.

Not kidding at all

Did you miss this:
http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_bc/index.php

Libs 37; NDP 24; 24 - Too close to call.

I'd say, at this stage of the campaign, that is just about right...

So, look a little closer Rod.... it's a lot more realistic than Stewart's thingy

And here

Is some information on their methodology:

http://www.electionprediction.org/method.html

Polling, Polling, and more Polling

No doubt about that. I still place my money with the decade long track record of both Mustel and Ipsos.

And Mustel's 5% spread just before the May, 2005 election was spot-on (actual result was 4%).

Still have a bit of affinity with that unscientific, 18-chain, De Dutch cumulative hamburger poll in terms of the big mo though.

Campbell Burger 43% (+1%)
James Burger 25% (-2%)
Sterk Burger 12% (-1%)
Other Burger 20% (+2%)

Factor out the "Other Burger" be it undecided or other and the result today is:

Campbell Burger 54%
James Burger 31%
Sterk Burger 15%

http://www.dedutch.com/the-de-dutch-story/Hamburger-Polls2009.asp

And that's the same hamburger poll that Wacky Bennett's Socreds were behind in in just before election day in August, 1972.

So what did Wacky do? He purchased 3,000 hamburgers at the one store to make him appear on top. Today a maximum order cannot exceed 4 burgers.

Horse Races, Horse Races and More Horse Races

I learned at an early age that some people are actually motivated to vote for a winner, hence the need, the hunger, for the latest polling data.

Serious surveys of public opinion, undertaken by academic political scientists, reveal underlying characteristics of voter behaviour. It's unfortunate there is no counterpart to the Canadian Election Studies at the provincial level as that would undoubtedly raise the level of discussion in provincial politics, at least among informed participants.

7-model average

Several of the other seat projection models have revisions as well this aft. New 7-model avg indicates a 60-25 Liberal Majority on May 12th: www.trendlines.ca/electbc.htm

Mustel poll

The Mustel polls were released without
enough details ( where sample was taken
and who were they.)
This missing info. and the disparity
with other polling firms' samples should
be considered before including it in the
average.
There was no evidence that Campbell was
headed toward the same landslide he won
in 2001. Mustel's past record, as Luke
tells us, is accurate, but even Luongo
has a bad night.
I am waiting for their next poll and
I expect the same detais as Ipsos-reid.

Re: electionprediction.org

Milton Chan's model is based on practitioner canvassing. Unconventional as his methodology may seem, it is better than the indication from 3 calls per riding in Federal Polls & 5/riding in Provincial polls.

I state this both as a pollster and as author of the TrendLines ratings of seat projections: www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm#modelscoreboard2008

Evi Mustel's track record for BC Polls is unchallengeable. And Milton Chan has the third best record for seat projections after the Ontario Election & three Federal Elections (behind TrendLines Avg & and Barry Kay of WLU-LISPOP).

BTW, every pollster & projectionist has had a rogue result at some time in their career.

@ Freddy Hutter

HOGWASH-HOGWASH-HOGWASH-

Whoever you are-HOGWASH

Except for 2001 big margin of victory in BC

BC provincial elections are always close--2005 was a 4 point spread-

Angus reid polls are correct,they have had 4 polls since august 2008.....

NDP up by 3 points--NDP up by 5 points--BC Liberals up by 6 points--BC Liberals up by 3 points.....

Those are typical BC elections results,they sound right--The last Ipsos poll(Ipsos claimed the Liberals were leading on Vancouver island)now that is a joke.....

Mustel polls are so far off it`s pathetic...Mustel polls offer no details..

So Mr Hutter---You are arguing with yourself,there is a lot of anger towards Campbell for a 1000 diffrent reasons,your theory,your input is worthless!

Some Other Tea Leaves...

Many of the moderate, centrist Mike Harcourt New Democrats of the 1990's have been abandoning the NDP and moving over to the Libs.

Former NDP MLA Bill Barlee... former NDP cabinet minister Jimmy Doyle, former NDP candidate Rob Hutchins (now a Lib candidate), and today... former Harcourt hand-picked Vancouver Fraserview MLA Bernie Simpson (a federal Liberal) now endorsing provincial Lib candidates in Vancouver.

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090429.WBcampbellblog20090429205944/WBStory/WBcampbellblog

When the NDP begins to lose its moderate centre-left wing as described above the only thing left is its left-wing base, which is at around 30%.

Again, if, in fact, the ARS spread of REALLY 3% is valid (very doubtful), the Libs would be launching negative attack ads on radio and TV as the same polling trend would be seen by their internal polls.

NOPE. They still have Gordo's fluff ads. The only party going with negative ads since the beginning of the campaign is the NDP likely based upon their own internal tracking polls.

And then there is NDP MLA Doug Routley... ohhhh the hypocrasy...

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/leader+accused+double+standard+involving+investigation/1547158/story.html

@LUKE

You don`t listen to the radio in the boiler room?

CKNW,allday,phil hocstein ran his ad at least 30 times,2 to 3 times per hour...

Another group of business coalition is running anti NDP ads on NW..

IPPs are running anti NDP ads on nw and....

The Liberals are running anti NDP ads on NW

You are grasping at straws Luke,the game is over,the polling ponzi scheme is over,Wally Oppal is over,Kash Heed is over...
Every island riding is over,even Cantelon is going down,he is running away from all candidates meeting and people have noticed...

Who cares about Harcourt?NO one!

http://www2.canada.com/nanaimodailynews/news/story.html?id=b2d87489-fb20-43a6-91ad-51aa99c8f718

Angus reid polled before all the Liberal bad news on Friday,that spread is gone,all 4 B urnaby ridings are gone,Dave Hayer is gone,Bill Bennett is gone,Pat Bell is gone,Shirley Bond is gone.....

49 NDP seats

1 independent seat

35 Liberal seat.

You and Kennedy can munch on those results!

Sheesh

Routely was found 100% innocent,WOW,what a story,he`s a great MLA,single father,and will win his riding in a landslide,it`s not like he`s guilty like......

Gordon Campbell,Laura mcdiamid,Marc Dalton,Bill Bennett,John Van Dongen,Ken Dobell,Patrick Kinsella, John Les,man are you Liberals desperate....

And I don`t need any more proof that the Liberals are desperate trying to make a case out of nothing!Did you read the story,the police investigated a frivilous claim and dismissed the whole matter!

God LUKE,Even I wouldn`t stoop to posting a LAMO story like that,what next? Are you going to accuse Carole James of tracking gum from her shoe into the convention center!Or maybe the Liberals can do an expose on which NDP got a ticket for a burnt out tail light.......
Luke,talk to you bosses or use your judgement,that story is really the bottom of the barrell!

Hey Luke

Check the comment section under the Routley story.....The public saw right through the story as a desperate attempt.....

And it backfired,wow,complaints from a wife in a divorce hearing.....HAHA LOL LOL

Hey Luke...

That other link you posted,none of those people are listed,the BLOG was about Bernie Simpson endorsing Kash Heed,and the story (Blog) --Bernie Simpson states he left the 15 years ago!--Your a little late with your story!

And if you want to talk about Kash Heed,whats up with that rumour that Kash Heed left west Vancouver Police force because he was being investigated for interfering with a CHILD PORNOGRAPHY involving a high profile west Vancouver resident?
Well Luke,the mayor of west Vancouver was glad to see Kash Heed go!

Funny thing though,Kash Heed would make more as police chief then he would as a MLA(if elected)......or was Kash Heed running for cover,running for cover with the Campbell Liberals?
Was Kash Heed aware that charges were going to be laid against Jack Crone before the election?
What is Kash Heed`s relationship with the (now dismissed)investment banker for RBC securities?
Has Kash Heed ever been to Jack Crone`s multi million dollar mansion in west Vancouver?
What was the result of the investigation of Kash Heed?
What were the nature of the allegations? Was it more than interfering in a child pornography case?
The NDP and the Public would like Kash Heed to come clean about the investigation!

here is the story

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Former+senior+bank+official+appear+child+porn+charges/1546299/story.html

You want to play? Call it hardball.

What about Mike Geoghegan?

Luke S.
Former NDP MLA Bill Barlee... former NDP cabinet minister Jimmy Doyle, former NDP candidate Rob Hutchins (now a Lib candidate), and today... former Harcourt hand-picked Vancouver Fraserview MLA Bernie Simpson (a federal Liberal) now endorsing provincial Lib candidates in Vancouver.

What about Mike Geoghegan? You mentioned Barlee, why not mention his boss Geoghegan?

As someone said, Baldreydash!

secret cove
Check the comment section under the Routley story.....

Agreed. But did you see the Keith Baldrey version on Channel 11 tonite? It looks like he and Luke get their scripts from the same person. As his piece wore on, the only surprise was that he didn't throw in a mention of Bernie Simpson and Gary Doer.

Yea I saw it RON

It was such a Cheesy piece,I am going to rub Baldrey`s face in that story on the "cutting ledge" on friday....

The Liberals are on full high desperate,and Ron,the story Baldrey told was lame,reeked of desperatness,Voters will see through that trash.

The story might of had legs if.........

Baldrey reported it before Doug Routley was cleared of all charges.

All is good

Campbell the con man is as good as history,especialy when Kash Heed gets asked what he was investigated for in west Vancouver.