A new poll from Angus Reid Strategies suggests that crime is emerging as a major issue for B.C. voters.
The poll, which gives the Liberals a six percentage point lead over the New Democratic Party, found that the number of respondents who cited crime as the most important issue has almost tripled since last summer.
“Whoever can connect on this issue is going to see their numbers rise,” Reid vice-president Mario Canseco told The Tyee.
The poll suggests the Liberals have the support of 43 per cent of decided voters, up four percentage points since the last Reid poll in November. The NDP trails with 37 per cent, down seven points since November. The Greens have 13 per cent, down two points. The B.C. Conservatives, who were included for the first time in the multiple-choice options given respondents, have four per cent.
But the race becomes much closer when the pollsters focus on those who say they are “absolutely certain to vote.”
The Liberals have the support of only 41 per cent of “absolutely certain” voters, with the NDP at 39 per cent – in effect, a dead heat. This suggests that “the B.C. election may well be determined by the turnout levels of supporters for each party,” the pollsters said in a statement accompanying the results.
And although the Liberals lead in the horserace numbers, when asked if it is “time for a change of government in British Columbia,” a majority – 51 per cent – said yes. Only 34 per cent of respondents said the Liberals should be returned to office, despite the fact that 43 per cent said they would vote Liberal.
The question about voting intention came before the question on whether it is time for a change.
Worse for Campbell, only 30 per cent of respondents agreed with the statement that “Gordon Campbell should be re-elected.” A majority – 54 per cent – said it was time for a new premier.
But James is not impressing voters either, Canseco said.
“We still have some people who are not sold on Carole James as a leader, even among the NDP,” he said.
While James is strong on the issues of health care and education, the voters care the most about the economy – 36 per cent said it was the most important issue, up from 14 per cent in August.
They also care about crime. With the recent wave of gang violence in the Lower Mainland, crime has jumped into second place as the most important issue. Nineteen per cent cited it as their top issue, up from seven per cent in August.
Canseco said his boss, Angus Reid, has never seen crime ranked so high.
“This is something that could actually emerge as something either of the two parties could capitalize on,” he said.
While James has the opportunity to blame Campbell for gang violence, it’s a difficult issue for her because voters are less inclined to trust the NDP on crime, he said.
To win the May election, James has to advance policies that connect with voters, he said.
“It’s not going to be about hospital closures, it’s not going to be about school closures, and if they try to run that campaign it’s going to backfire,” he said.
“Running a campaign based on criticizing Gordon Campbell is not going to get her where she wants to go.”
The poll was conducted March 20 to 22 among an online panel comprising 800 participants. Reid quotes a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. However, some experts contend that it is improper to quote a margin of error for online polls because they are drawn from panels, rather than the population at large.
Reid counters that his polls have a better track record than traditional telephone polls, which might miss people who do not have landlines.
Tom Barrett is a contributing editor at The Tyee.
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VicRK
3 years ago
North numbers
The numbers in the North show the Libs behind by double digits in this poll. 49-36.
seth
3 years ago
Greenies for Gordo
The NDP need to hammer on this theme, ie a green vote is a Liberal vote.
The Greenie platform is so extreme left that it would only attract low information Liberal voters.
How would the Greenies lets legalize marijauna or lets boot the RCMP platform fit the voters new concerns on law and order? Hell one of the Greenies main spokespersons is Mark Emery.
We online and talk show caller types need to emphasize the merits of Wilf and the Conservatives over Gordo. On that theme the
tens of billions wasted on IPP's will be a sure fire winner showing Gordo as the biggest spendthrift in Canadian history. Proof of massive Government waste is an excellent way to either keep the true conservative voter who would never vote NDP home or to send his vote to Wilf Hurd.
morechatter
3 years ago
Campbell's Government Dosen't Do Crime
They are the crime as they leave police forces with out the necessary man power will manning a sky train with a hundred officers. While drugs are freely sold around the corner. Wasn't one of their aids also into major drug dealing? Its kinda interesting as the undecided voter can go this way or that way as they hang in their until the end? One thing for sure Campbell's house will no longer be stacked. And that the Ruler is not going to work well with as he's used to having it his way. And this is a balance long over do as it now becomes about the people of the province rather than the premier.
morechatter
3 years ago
NDP talk of Regional Force
Actually Black does Campbell won't go anywhere near the subject as police forces running on empty but full on crime and the homeless. And full on controversay of their treatment of the homeless. Never ending? Yes we need a change. And all this talk about government spending and how they spent this and how they spent that? Drunk Driving Down? It dosen't mean anything if they refuse to disclose what actually is happening. Would you hand your wallet over to someone and then leave it with and then what ever they say goes? Well they are in your wallet and you haven't even made the money yet. And what do you have to show for it a city that is unsafe, dirty and unfriendly.
frenchy mcswede
3 years ago
This poll really looks quite good for the ndp,
who typically gain support from both the greens and the liberals as the campaign progresses. And the ndp don't have to attack Campbell personally, (which is really a red herring issue) all they need do is attack his record, which is as dreadful on the justice front as it is on all others. Campbell has both ruined and two-tiered bc's justice system, by closing down courts in his first term, and by gutting access to justice in his second. Stone-wally oppal has essentially politicized the attorney general's office, first by signing off on bill 42, second, by refusing to answer questions re why the premier's longterm, campaign manager got $300,000 for giving away bc rail, a matter not just before the courts, but also published in the legislature library.
But if the ndp really wants to kick campbell's ass, they should launch attack style ads on the premier's dreadful managing of the economy, as well the fact that every renter in BC is at increasing risk at being renovicted out of their homes, a process underway on commercial drive, the west end, kitsilano, and victoria, and soon coming to a neighbourhood near you.
freebear
3 years ago
Distract the sheep!
Yeah, use crime nissue to misdirect and draw attention away from the 'Olympic' theft of tax payer dollars, and other more pressing issues.
While the murders are bad and bystanders may be hurt; thousand are already hurt by this government!
ABC , anything but Campbell!
morechatter
3 years ago
Bang, Bang 21 Dead
Although the gangster hits may have been deliberate its certainly not deliberate on the part of Government to distract the voter from the Olympics because they are more than aware.
I think thats the job of the all those Olympic commericials as all you see is smiling faces and people having fun whats that called when they give you the advertise to reassure consumer the product they bought is the right one? Police budgets done for and its only spring as shooting are out of contro is the type of thing Liberals would rather not be discussing before an election especially when its their lack of enforcement and resources that has gotten us into this mess. As they were no stranger to the problem just decided money was better in some else's pocket.
And although no one can say for sure who will win this election one thing for sure I already feel like a winner because one thing Campbell will not get enough seats to rule like a dictator. And its going to be tuff for the dictator for sure.
So how long do you think it will be before he will crack under NDP scrutiny?
morechatter
3 years ago
I Don't Think the NDP
Need to Attack just stay focused and go for accountability and some real measures to stop the madness and all that government advertising needs to do on their own dime and their outta be a law how much can be spent especially on an Ministry ailing such as housing? And when asked to produce the Olympic costs uneducated, Liberal, Finance Minister says "If I let you see them you wouldn't understand". Thats not an answer thats a confession. Also having a solid plan to help reduce crime through various measures along with homelessness as they go hand in hand would also be grand. It will be a slow a gradual process but mostly I hoping for is we get to see the laws and office they hold and the people they govern treated with a little respect and gratitude to be able to serve instead of putting people in servitude. Education is also an very important issue to our up and coming and their is no question the high cost of education and living are a real damper along with low wages to get them through school. So lots of issues to many in fact.