Independent media needs you. Join the Tyee.

The Hook: Political news, freshly caught

POLL: Ipsos' latest sets NDP lead at 19 percentage points

A new election poll –- the second one released yesterday -– puts the New Democrats out front of the BC Liberal Party by 19 percentage points.

Although that gap is widely expected to narrow between now and the May 14 election, it is worth observing that only two B.C. elections in the past 40 years have been decided by more than 10 percentage points. (The BC Liberals won with a 36.1-point margin in 2001 and Social Credit won by 10.1-points in 1975.)

In today's Ipsos Reid poll, 48 per cent of decided respondents said they would vote for the NDP if the election were held tomorrow. The Liberals received 29 per cent, the B.C. Conservatives 11 per cent, the Greens nine per cent and other parties, including independent candidates, received three per cent.

About one in five –- 19 per cent -– of all respondents to the online poll were undecided or had no preference.

The results are quite close to those of yesterday's other campaign poll, from Angus Reid, which suggested a 17-point gap between the two leading parties. (The Ipsos figures represent decided voters while the Angus Reid numbers are for those who are decided and leaning.)

The Ipsos poll was conducted for Global TV between Thursday, April 11 and Sunday, April 14, among 800 B.C. adults drawn from an online panel. Ipsos states a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20 (see note below).

Polling for B.C. election 2013 as of April 16, 2013
Company Date Lib NDP Cons Green Other Method Sample +/-
Angus Reid 17-18 Jan 31 46 10 10 3 Online 802 3.5
Mustel 11-21 Jan 33 43 11 11 2 Phone 509 4.3
Justason 25 Jan - 1 Feb 26 48 12 11 3 Phone-online 600 4
Ekos 1-10 Feb 27.4 39 14.6 13.5 5.5 IVR* 687 3.7
Angus Reid 22-21 Feb 31 47 9 10 3 Online 803 3.5
Ipsos 8-12 Mar 32 51 9 7 1 Online 1,000 3.1
Angus Reid 18-19 Mar 28 48 11 11 2 Online 809 3.5
Insights West 26-31 Mar 28 45 10 15 2 Online 855 3.4
Ekos 3-10 Apr 27.3 39.3 13.4 16.2 3.8 IVR* 793 3.5
Angus Reid 12-13 Apr 28 45 12 13 3 Online 804 3.5
Ipsos 11-14 Apr 29 48 11 9 3 Online 800 3.5

*Interactive Voice Response.

Note: The sampling error margins given here are those provided by the pollster. While online polls have been very successful at predicting recent elections, there is a methodological controversy surrounding the citing of margins of error for online polls. Some experts hold that it is inappropriate to quote a margin of error for an online poll because participants in such polls are drawn from volunteer panels, rather than chosen at random from the general population. For more on this issue, see this story.

Find Tyee election reporting team member and contributing editor Tom Barrett’s previous Tyee articles here. Find him on Twitter or email him here.

Find more in:

What have we missed? What do you think? We want to know. Comment below. Keep in mind:

Do:

  • Verify facts, debunk rumours
  • Add context and background
  • Spot typos and logical fallacies
  • Highlight reporting blind spots
  • Ignore trolls
  • Treat all with respect and curiosity
  • Connect with each other

Do not:

  • Use sexist, classist, racist or homophobic language
  • Libel or defame
  • Bully or troll
  • Troll patrol. Instead, flag suspect activity.
comments powered by Disqus